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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Survation/Daily Record, 3rd May 2016

These are our MSP forecasts for the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Survation and published in the Daily Record on 3rd May.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑3.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓10.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑5.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑2.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓1.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑7.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑2.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑1.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓3.43

Our forecast

Seats Total Constituencies Regional seats
2011 Forecast Change 2011 Forecast Change 2011 Forecast Change
SNP 69 69 53 65 ↑12 16 4 ↓12
Labour 37 24 ↓13 15 ↓15 22 24 ↑2
Conservative 15 24 ↑9 3 6 ↑3 12 18 ↑6
Green 2 6 ↑4 2 6 ↑4
Lib Dem 5 6 ↑1 2 2 3 4 ↑1
Independent 1 ↓1 1 ↓1
Regions Constituencies
Central C                  
R              
Glasgow C                  
R              
Highlands and Islands C                
R              
Lothian C                  
R              
Mid Scotland and Fife C                  
R              
North East C                    
R              
South C                  
R              
West C                    
R              

Most marginal constituencies

Constituency Winner Margin Outcome
Orkney Islands Liberal Democrat 364 HOLD over SNP
Edinburgh Pentlands Conservative 808 GAIN over SNP
Edinburgh Central SNP 1,280 HOLD over Green
Glasgow Provan SNP 1,940 GAIN over Labour
Coatbridge & Chryston SNP 2,076 GAIN over Labour
Edinburgh Southern SNP 2,134 HOLD over Conservative
Renfrewshire South SNP 2,610 GAIN over Labour
Glasgow Kelvin SNP 2,697 HOLD over Green
Shetland Islands Liberal Democrat 2,716 HOLD over SNP
Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn SNP 2,726 GAIN over Labour

Narrowest regional wins

Region 7th place Next party Allocation shortfall Equivalent votes
Glasgow Labour Conservative 233 468
Lothian Green Labour 247 741
West Conservative Green 1,080 1,080
Highlands and Islands SNP Labour 1,038 2,077
North East Labour Conservative 607 2,426
Mid Scotland and Fife Lib Dem Labour 1,872 5,618
South SNP Conservative 1,281 7,687
Central Labour SNP 1,340 13,403