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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Survation/Daily Record, 3rd May 2016

These are our forecasts for regional MSPs in the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Survation and published in the Daily Record on 3rd May.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑3.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓10.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑5.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑2.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓1.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑7.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑2.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑1.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓3.43

Our forecast

Regions

Central C                  
R              
Glasgow C                  
R              
Highlands and Islands C                
R              
Lothian C                  
R              
Mid Scotland and Fife C                  
R              
North East C                    
R              
South C                  
R              
West C                    
R              

Central

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 51.58 % 29.06 % 11.74 % 1.87 % 4.40 % 1.35 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 105,751 59,577 24,072 3,831 9,031 2,773 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 10,575 59,577 24,072 3,831 9,031 2,773 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 10,575 29,789 24,072 3,831 9,031 2,773 0
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 10,575 19,859 24,072 3,831 9,031 2,773 0
4th divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 10,575 19,859 12,036 3,831 9,031 2,773 0
5th divisor 10 4 2 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 10,575 14,894 12,036 3,831 9,031 2,773 0
6th divisor 10 5 2 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 10,575 11,915 12,036 3,831 9,031 2,773 0
7th divisor 10 5 3 1 1 1 1
7th allocation 10,575 11,915 8,024 3,831 9,031 2,773 0
8th divisor 10 6 3 1 1 1 1
8th allocation 10,575 9,930 8,024 3,831 9,031 2,773 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Richard Leonard
2 Labour Monica Lennon
3 Conservative Margaret Mitchell
4 Labour Mark Griffin
5 Labour Elaine Smith
6 Conservative Graham Simpson
7 Labour Craig Martin

Glasgow

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 44.33 % 28.81 % 11.27 % 3.35 % 10.90 % 1.35 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 81,182 52,766 20,639 6,133 19,964 2,465 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 8,118 52,766 20,639 6,133 19,964 2,465 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 8,118 26,383 20,639 6,133 19,964 2,465 0
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 8,118 17,589 20,639 6,133 19,964 2,465 0
4th divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 8,118 17,589 10,320 6,133 19,964 2,465 0
5th divisor 10 3 2 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 8,118 17,589 10,320 6,133 9,982 2,465 0
6th divisor 10 4 2 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 8,118 13,192 10,320 6,133 9,982 2,465 0
7th divisor 10 5 2 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 8,118 10,553 10,320 6,133 9,982 2,465 0
8th divisor 10 6 2 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 8,118 8,794 10,320 6,133 9,982 2,465 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Anas Sarwar
2 Labour Johann Lamont
3 Conservative Adam Tomkins
4 Green Patrick Harvie
5 Labour James Kelly
6 Labour Pauline McNeill
7 Labour Bill Butler

Highlands and Islands

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 45.52 % 10.24 % 18.48 % 13.74 % 7.97 % 4.05 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 6 2
Votes 83,109 18,701 33,742 25,086 14,549 7,403 0
1st divisor 7 1 1 3 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,873 18,701 33,742 8,362 14,549 7,403 0
2nd divisor 7 1 2 3 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,873 18,701 16,871 8,362 14,549 7,403 0
3rd divisor 7 2 2 3 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,873 9,351 16,871 8,362 14,549 7,403 0
4th divisor 7 2 3 3 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,873 9,351 11,247 8,362 14,549 7,403 0
5th divisor 7 2 3 3 2 1 1
5th allocation 11,873 9,351 11,247 8,362 7,275 7,403 0
6th divisor 8 2 3 3 2 1 1
6th allocation 10,389 9,351 11,247 8,362 7,275 7,403 0
7th divisor 8 2 4 3 2 1 1
7th allocation 10,389 9,351 8,436 8,362 7,275 7,403 0
8th divisor 9 2 4 3 2 1 1
8th allocation 9,234 9,351 8,436 8,362 7,275 7,403 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Douglas Ross
2 Labour Rhoda Grant
3 Conservative Edward Mountain
4 Green John Finnie
5 SNP Maree Todd
6 Conservative Donald Cameron
7 SNP Laura Mitchell

Lothian

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 40.25 % 18.93 % 19.85 % 6.68 % 12.80 % 1.49 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 8 1
Votes 108,380 50,969 53,453 17,996 34,473 4,000 0
1st divisor 9 1 2 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 12,042 50,969 26,727 17,996 34,473 4,000 0
2nd divisor 9 2 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 12,042 25,485 26,727 17,996 34,473 4,000 0
3rd divisor 9 2 2 1 2 1 1
3rd allocation 12,042 25,485 26,727 17,996 17,237 4,000 0
4th divisor 9 2 3 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 12,042 25,485 17,818 17,996 17,237 4,000 0
5th divisor 9 3 3 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 12,042 16,990 17,818 17,996 17,237 4,000 0
6th divisor 9 3 3 2 2 1 1
6th allocation 12,042 16,990 17,818 8,998 17,237 4,000 0
7th divisor 9 3 4 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 12,042 16,990 13,363 8,998 17,237 4,000 0
8th divisor 9 3 4 2 3 1 1
8th allocation 12,042 16,990 13,363 8,998 11,491 4,000 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Kezia Dugdale
2 Green Alison Johnstone
3 Conservative Ruth Davidson
4 Labour Neil Findlay
5 Liberal Democrat Alex Cole-Hamilton
6 Conservative Miles Briggs
7 Green Andy Wightman

Mid Scotland and Fife

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 43.70 % 17.90 % 22.63 % 6.68 % 6.71 % 2.39 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 113,985 46,691 59,020 17,436 17,495 6,230 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,399 46,691 59,020 17,436 17,495 6,230 0
2nd divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,399 46,691 29,510 17,436 17,495 6,230 0
3rd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,399 23,346 29,510 17,436 17,495 6,230 0
4th divisor 10 2 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,399 23,346 19,673 17,436 17,495 6,230 0
5th divisor 10 3 3 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 11,399 15,564 19,673 17,436 17,495 6,230 0
6th divisor 10 3 4 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 11,399 15,564 14,755 17,436 17,495 6,230 0
7th divisor 10 3 4 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 11,399 15,564 14,755 17,436 8,748 6,230 0
8th divisor 10 3 4 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 11,399 15,564 14,755 8,718 8,748 6,230 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Murdo Fraser
2 Labour Alex Rowley
3 Conservative Liz Smith
4 Labour Claire Baker
5 Conservative Dean Lockhart
6 Green Mark Ruskell
7 Liberal Democrat Willie Rennie

North East

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 50.30 % 11.60 % 22.32 % 7.68 % 6.10 % 1.99 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 10
Votes 137,485 31,713 61,000 20,986 16,683 5,438 0
1st divisor 11 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 12,499 31,713 61,000 20,986 16,683 5,438 0
2nd divisor 11 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 12,499 31,713 30,500 20,986 16,683 5,438 0
3rd divisor 11 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 12,499 15,857 30,500 20,986 16,683 5,438 0
4th divisor 11 2 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 12,499 15,857 20,333 20,986 16,683 5,438 0
5th divisor 11 2 3 2 1 1 1
5th allocation 12,499 15,857 20,333 10,493 16,683 5,438 0
6th divisor 11 2 4 2 1 1 1
6th allocation 12,499 15,857 15,250 10,493 16,683 5,438 0
7th divisor 11 2 4 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 12,499 15,857 15,250 10,493 8,342 5,438 0
8th divisor 11 3 4 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 12,499 10,571 15,250 10,493 8,342 5,438 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Alex Johnstone
2 Labour Jenny Marra
3 Conservative Alexander Burnett
4 Liberal Democrat Mike Rumbles
5 Conservative Ross Thomson
6 Green Maggie Chapman
7 Labour Lewis MacDonald

South

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 38.64 % 17.66 % 30.46 % 6.03 % 4.74 % 2.46 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 5 4
Votes 111,620 51,006 87,988 17,428 13,682 7,119 0
1st divisor 6 1 5 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 18,603 51,006 17,598 17,428 13,682 7,119 0
2nd divisor 6 2 5 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 18,603 25,503 17,598 17,428 13,682 7,119 0
3rd divisor 6 3 5 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 18,603 17,002 17,598 17,428 13,682 7,119 0
4th divisor 7 3 5 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 15,946 17,002 17,598 17,428 13,682 7,119 0
5th divisor 7 3 6 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 15,946 17,002 14,665 17,428 13,682 7,119 0
6th divisor 7 3 6 2 1 1 1
6th allocation 15,946 17,002 14,665 8,714 13,682 7,119 0
7th divisor 7 4 6 2 1 1 1
7th allocation 15,946 12,752 14,665 8,714 13,682 7,119 0
8th divisor 8 4 6 2 1 1 1
8th allocation 13,953 12,752 14,665 8,714 13,682 7,119 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Iain Gray
2 Labour Claudia Beamish
3 SNP Joan McAlpine
4 Conservative Rachael Hamilton
5 Liberal Democrat Jim Hume
6 Labour Colin Smyth
7 SNP Emma Harper

West

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 42.73 % 24.93 % 21.73 % 3.94 % 5.03 % 1.64 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9 1
Votes 114,586 66,854 58,271 10,561 13,488 4,391 0
1st divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,459 66,854 29,136 10,561 13,488 4,391 0
2nd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,459 33,427 29,136 10,561 13,488 4,391 0
3rd divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,459 22,285 29,136 10,561 13,488 4,391 0
4th divisor 10 3 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,459 22,285 19,424 10,561 13,488 4,391 0
5th divisor 10 4 3 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 11,459 16,714 19,424 10,561 13,488 4,391 0
6th divisor 10 4 4 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 11,459 16,714 14,568 10,561 13,488 4,391 0
7th divisor 10 5 4 1 1 1 1
7th allocation 11,459 13,371 14,568 10,561 13,488 4,391 0
8th divisor 10 5 5 1 1 1 1
8th allocation 11,459 13,371 11,654 10,561 13,488 4,391 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Jackie Baillie
2 Labour Neil Bibby
3 Conservative Jamie Greene
4 Labour Mary Fee
5 Conservative Maurice Golden
6 Labour Ken Macintosh
7 Conservative Maurice Corry