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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Survation/Daily Record, 3rd May 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Central region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Survation and published in the Daily Record on 3rd May.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑3.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓10.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑5.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑2.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓1.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑7.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑2.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑1.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓3.43

Our forecast

Central: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 51.58 % 29.06 % 11.74 % 1.87 % 4.40 % 1.35 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 105,751 59,577 24,072 3,831 9,031 2,773 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 10,575 59,577 24,072 3,831 9,031 2,773 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 10,575 29,789 24,072 3,831 9,031 2,773 0
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 10,575 19,859 24,072 3,831 9,031 2,773 0
4th divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 10,575 19,859 12,036 3,831 9,031 2,773 0
5th divisor 10 4 2 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 10,575 14,894 12,036 3,831 9,031 2,773 0
6th divisor 10 5 2 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 10,575 11,915 12,036 3,831 9,031 2,773 0
7th divisor 10 5 3 1 1 1 1
7th allocation 10,575 11,915 8,024 3,831 9,031 2,773 0
8th divisor 10 6 3 1 1 1 1
8th allocation 10,575 9,930 8,024 3,831 9,031 2,773 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Richard Leonard
2 Labour Monica Lennon
3 Conservative Margaret Mitchell
4 Labour Mark Griffin
5 Labour Elaine Smith
6 Conservative Graham Simpson
7 Labour Craig Martin

Constituencies in Central region

Airdrie & Shotts

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Alex Neil 🛋 12,937 ↑953 59.00 % ↑8.85
Labour Richard Leonard 🎢 6,615 ↓3368 30.17 % ↓11.61
Conservative Eric Holford 1,907 ↑511 8.70 % ↑2.86
Liberal Democrat Louise Young 💸 469 ↓62 2.14 % ↓0.08
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,322 Swing: ↑10.23%

Coatbridge & Chryston

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Fulton MacGregor 9,980 ↑735 48.14 % ↑8.43
Labour Elaine Smith 🛋 🎢 7,904 ↓4024 38.12 % ↓13.12
Conservative Robyn Halbert 1,787 ↑479 8.62 % ↑3.00
Green John Wilson 💸 📃 795 ↑299 3.83 % ↑1.70
Liberal Democrat Jenni Lang 💸 267 ↓35 1.29 % ↓0.01
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 2,076 Swing: ↑10.77%

Cumbernauld & Kilsyth

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jamie Hepburn 🛋 14,676 ↑1081 63.00 % ↑9.17
Labour Mark Griffin 📃 🎢 6,716 ↓3420 28.83 % ↓11.31
Conservative Anthony Newman 1,579 ↑423 6.78 % ↑2.20
Liberal Democrat Irene Lang 💸 324 ↓43 1.39 % ↓0.06
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,960 Swing: ↑10.24%

East Kilbride

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Linda Fabiani 🛋 15,501 ↑1142 56.94 % ↑8.93
Labour LizAnne Handibode 8,223 ↓4187 30.20 % ↓11.29
Conservative Graham Simpson 🎢 3,088 ↑828 11.34 % ↑3.78
Liberal Democrat Paul McGarry 💸 413 ↓55 1.52 % ↓0.04
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,278 Swing: ↑10.11%

Falkirk East

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Angus MacDonald 🛋 15,439 ↑1137 58.36 % ↑7.59
Labour Craig Martin 🎢 7,134 ↓3633 26.97 % ↓11.25
Conservative Callum Laidlaw 3,241 ↑869 12.25 % ↑3.83
Liberal Democrat Austin Reid 💸 642 ↓85 2.43 % ↓0.15
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,305 Swing: ↑9.42%

Falkirk West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Michael Matheson 🛋 16,848 ↑1241 62.86 % ↑7.51
Labour Mandy Telford 6,535 ↓3327 24.38 % ↓10.59
Conservative Alison Harris 2,850 ↑764 10.63 % ↑3.23
Liberal Democrat Gillian Cole-Hamilton 💸 569 ↓75 2.12 % ↓0.16
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,313 Swing: ↑9.05%

Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Christina McKelvie 13,172 ↑970 55.31 % ↑7.18
Labour Margaret McCulloch 📃 6,619 ↓3370 27.79 % ↓11.61
Conservative Margaret Mitchell 📃 🎢 3,480 ↑933 14.61 % ↑4.56
Liberal Democrat Eileen Baxendale 💸 544 ↓72 2.28 % ↓0.15
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,553 Swing: ↑9.39%

Motherwell & Wishaw

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Clare Adamson 10,931 ↑805 52.68 % ↑11.27
Labour John Pentland 🛋 7,099 ↓3614 34.21 % ↓9.60
Conservative Megan Gallacher 2,395 ↑642 11.54 % ↑4.37
Liberal Democrat Yvonne Finlayson 💸 324 ↓43 1.56 % ↑0.06
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,832 Swing: ↑10.43%

Uddingston & Bellshill

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Richard Lyle 📃 11,677 ↑860 51.49 % ↑8.21
Labour Michael McMahon 🛋 7,641 ↓3890 33.69 % ↓12.44
Conservative Andrew Morrison 2,892 ↑775 12.75 % ↑4.28
Liberal Democrat Kaitey Blair 💸 468 ↓62 2.06 % ↓0.06
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,036 Swing: ↑10.32%