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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Survation/Daily Record, 3rd May 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Glasgow region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Survation and published in the Daily Record on 3rd May.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑3.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓10.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑5.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑2.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓1.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑7.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑2.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑1.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓3.43

Our forecast

Glasgow: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 44.33 % 28.81 % 11.27 % 3.35 % 10.90 % 1.35 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 81,182 52,766 20,639 6,133 19,964 2,465 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 8,118 52,766 20,639 6,133 19,964 2,465 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 8,118 26,383 20,639 6,133 19,964 2,465 0
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 8,118 17,589 20,639 6,133 19,964 2,465 0
4th divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 8,118 17,589 10,320 6,133 19,964 2,465 0
5th divisor 10 3 2 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 8,118 17,589 10,320 6,133 9,982 2,465 0
6th divisor 10 4 2 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 8,118 13,192 10,320 6,133 9,982 2,465 0
7th divisor 10 5 2 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 8,118 10,553 10,320 6,133 9,982 2,465 0
8th divisor 10 6 2 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 8,118 8,794 10,320 6,133 9,982 2,465 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Anas Sarwar
2 Labour Johann Lamont
3 Conservative Adam Tomkins
4 Green Patrick Harvie
5 Labour James Kelly
6 Labour Pauline McNeill
7 Labour Bill Butler

Constituencies in Glasgow region

Glasgow Anniesland

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Bill Kidd 🛋 11,150 ↑821 51.57 % ↑8.38
Labour Bill Butler 🎢 6,840 ↓3482 31.64 % ↓11.52
Conservative Adam Tomkins 🎢 2,747 ↑736 12.71 % ↑4.30
Liberal Democrat James Spiers 💸 883 ↓117 4.08 % ↓0.10
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,310 Swing: ↑9.95%

Glasgow Cathcart

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP James Dornan 🛋 12,866 ↑948 53.64 % ↑8.19
Labour Soryia Siddique 6,842 ↓3484 28.52 % ↓10.86
Conservative Kyle Thornton 3,292 ↑882 13.73 % ↑4.54
Liberal Democrat Margot Clark 💸 987 ↓131 4.12 % ↓0.14
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,024 Swing: ↑9.52%

Glasgow Kelvin

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Sandra White 🛋 9,800 ↑722 38.50 % ↑0.90
Green Patrick Harvie 📃 🎢 7,103 ↑2672 27.91 % ↑9.56
Labour Michael Shanks 5,086 ↓2589 19.98 % ↓11.81
Conservative Sheila Mechan 2,411 ↑646 9.47 % ↑2.16
Liberal Democrat Carole Ford 💸 1,054 ↓140 4.14 % ↓0.81
SNP HOLD Majority: 2,697 Swing: ↓4.33%

Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Bob Doris 📃 9,275 ↑683 50.88 % ↑9.03
Labour Patricia Ferguson 🛋 6,549 ↓3335 35.93 % ↓12.21
Conservative John Anderson 1,669 ↑447 9.16 % ↑3.21
Liberal Democrat James Harrison 💸 736 ↓97 4.04 % ↓0.02
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 2,726 Swing: ↑10.62%

Glasgow Pollok

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Humza Yousaf 📃 11,067 ↑815 54.04 % ↑9.30
Labour Johann Lamont 🛋 🎢 7,206 ↓3669 35.19 % ↓12.27
Conservative Thomas Haddow 1,773 ↑475 8.66 % ↑3.00
Liberal Democrat Isabel Nelson 💸 433 ↓57 2.11 % ↓0.03
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,861 Swing: ↑10.79%

Glasgow Provan

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ivan McKee 8,591 ↑633 51.54 % ↑10.06
Labour Paul Martin 🛋 6,651 ↓3386 39.90 % ↓12.42
Conservative Annie Wells 1,062 ↑285 6.37 % ↑2.32
Liberal Democrat Thomas Coleman 💸 365 ↓48 2.19 % ↑0.04
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 1,940 Swing: ↑11.24%

Glasgow Shettleston

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP John Mason 🛋 10,933 ↑805 57.03 % ↑9.27
Labour Thomas Rannachan 6,323 ↓3219 32.98 % ↓12.02
Conservative Thomas Kerr 1,589 ↑426 8.29 % ↑2.81
Liberal Democrat Giovanni Caccavello 💸 328 ↓43 1.71 % ↓0.04
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,610 Swing: ↑10.64%

Glasgow Southside

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Nicola Sturgeon 🛋 13,285 ↑979 61.89 % ↑7.46
Labour Fariha Thomas 5,272 ↓2685 24.56 % ↓10.64
Conservative Graham Hutchison 2,368 ↑635 11.03 % ↑3.36
Liberal Democrat Kevin Lewsey 💸 540 ↓72 2.52 % ↓0.19
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,013 Swing: ↑9.05%

Rutherglen

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Clare Haughey 11,562 ↑852 48.71 % ↑9.19
Labour James Kelly 🛋 🎢 8,275 ↓4214 34.86 % ↓11.22
Conservative Taylor Muir 2,863 ↑767 12.06 % ↑4.33
Liberal Democrat Robert Brown 💸 1,037 ↓137 4.37 % ↑0.04
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,287 Swing: ↑10.21%