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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Survation/Daily Record, 3rd May 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Highlands and Islands region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Survation and published in the Daily Record on 3rd May.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑3.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓10.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑5.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑2.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓1.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑7.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑2.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑1.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓3.43

Our forecast

Highlands and Islands: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 45.52 % 10.24 % 18.48 % 13.74 % 7.97 % 4.05 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 6 2
Votes 83,109 18,701 33,742 25,086 14,549 7,403 0
1st divisor 7 1 1 3 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,873 18,701 33,742 8,362 14,549 7,403 0
2nd divisor 7 1 2 3 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,873 18,701 16,871 8,362 14,549 7,403 0
3rd divisor 7 2 2 3 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,873 9,351 16,871 8,362 14,549 7,403 0
4th divisor 7 2 3 3 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,873 9,351 11,247 8,362 14,549 7,403 0
5th divisor 7 2 3 3 2 1 1
5th allocation 11,873 9,351 11,247 8,362 7,275 7,403 0
6th divisor 8 2 3 3 2 1 1
6th allocation 10,389 9,351 11,247 8,362 7,275 7,403 0
7th divisor 8 2 4 3 2 1 1
7th allocation 10,389 9,351 8,436 8,362 7,275 7,403 0
8th divisor 9 2 4 3 2 1 1
8th allocation 9,234 9,351 8,436 8,362 7,275 7,403 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Douglas Ross
2 Labour Rhoda Grant
3 Conservative Edward Mountain
4 Green John Finnie
5 SNP Maree Todd
6 Conservative Donald Cameron
7 SNP Laura Mitchell

Constituencies in Highlands and Islands region

Argyll & Bute

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Michael Russell 🛋 14,455 ↑1065 54.35 % ↑3.78
Conservative Donald Cameron 🎢 6,622 ↑1775 24.90 % ↑6.59
Liberal Democrat Alan Reid 2,843 ↓377 10.69 % ↓1.47
Labour Mick Rice 2,678 ↓1363 10.07 % ↓5.19
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,833 Swing: ↓1.40%

Caithness, Sutherland & Ross

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gail Ross 14,944 ↑1101 53.01 % ↑4.61
Liberal Democrat Jamie Stone 5,638 ↓747 20.00 % ↓2.33
Conservative Struan Mackie 4,008 ↑1074 14.22 % ↑3.96
Labour Leah Franchetti 3,603 ↓1835 12.78 % ↓6.23
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,306 Swing: ↑3.47%

Inverness & Nairn

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Fergus Ewing 🛋 18,212 ↑1342 57.92 % ↑6.38
Conservative Edward Mountain 🎢 5,187 ↑1390 16.50 % ↑4.90
Labour David Stewart 📃 4,721 ↓2404 15.01 % ↓6.76
Liberal Democrat Carolyn Caddick 3,323 ↓440 10.57 % ↓0.93
SNP HOLD Majority: 13,025 Swing: ↑0.74%

Moray

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Richard Lochhead 🛋 18,154 ↑1337 61.08 % ↑2.27
Conservative Douglas Ross 🎢 8,024 ↑2151 27.00 % ↑6.46
Labour Sean Morton 2,372 ↓1208 7.98 % ↓4.54
Liberal Democrat Jamie Paterson 💸 1,172 ↓155 3.94 % ↓0.70
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,130 Swing: ↓2.09%

Na h-Eileanan an Iar

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Alasdair Allan 🛋 9,172 ↑676 72.73 % ↑7.43
Labour Rhoda Grant 📃 🎢 2,468 ↓1256 19.57 % ↓9.05
Conservative Ranald Fraser 769 ↑206 6.10 % ↑1.77
Liberal Democrat Ken MacLeod 💸 201 ↓27 1.60 % ↓0.15
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,704 Swing: ↑8.24%

Orkney Islands

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Liberal Democrat Liam McArthur 🛋 2,571 ↓341 42.73 % ↑7.01
SNP Donna Heddle 2,207 ↑163 36.67 % ↑11.60
Conservative Jamie Halcro Johnston 937 ↑251 15.57 % ↑7.15
Labour Gerry McGarvey 303 ↓155 5.04 % ↓0.58
Liberal Democrat HOLD Majority: 364 Swing: ↓2.29%

Shetland Islands

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Liberal Democrat Tavish Scott 🛋 3,940 ↓522 65.38 % ↑17.87
SNP Danus Skene 1,224 ↑90 20.32 % ↑8.24
Conservative Cameron Smith 451 ↑121 7.48 % ↑3.97
Labour Robina Barton 411 ↓209 6.82 % ↑0.22
Liberal Democrat HOLD Majority: 2,716 Swing: ↑4.82%

Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Kate Forbes 15,909 ↑1172 51.14 % ↑4.96
Liberal Democrat Angela MacLean 8,602 ↓1140 27.65 % ↓2.87
Conservative Robbie Munro 3,872 ↑1038 12.45 % ↑3.57
Labour Linda Stewart 2,725 ↓1387 8.76 % ↓4.12
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,307 Swing: ↑3.92%