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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Survation/Daily Record, 3rd May 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Lothian region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Survation and published in the Daily Record on 3rd May.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑3.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓10.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑5.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑2.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓1.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑7.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑2.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑1.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓3.43

Our forecast

Lothian: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 40.25 % 18.93 % 19.85 % 6.68 % 12.80 % 1.49 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 8 1
Votes 108,380 50,969 53,453 17,996 34,473 4,000 0
1st divisor 9 1 2 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 12,042 50,969 26,727 17,996 34,473 4,000 0
2nd divisor 9 2 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 12,042 25,485 26,727 17,996 34,473 4,000 0
3rd divisor 9 2 2 1 2 1 1
3rd allocation 12,042 25,485 26,727 17,996 17,237 4,000 0
4th divisor 9 2 3 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 12,042 25,485 17,818 17,996 17,237 4,000 0
5th divisor 9 3 3 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 12,042 16,990 17,818 17,996 17,237 4,000 0
6th divisor 9 3 3 2 2 1 1
6th allocation 12,042 16,990 17,818 8,998 17,237 4,000 0
7th divisor 9 3 4 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 12,042 16,990 13,363 8,998 17,237 4,000 0
8th divisor 9 3 4 2 3 1 1
8th allocation 12,042 16,990 13,363 8,998 11,491 4,000 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Kezia Dugdale
2 Green Alison Johnstone
3 Conservative Ruth Davidson
4 Labour Neil Findlay
5 Liberal Democrat Alex Cole-Hamilton
6 Conservative Miles Briggs
7 Green Andy Wightman

Constituencies in Lothian region

Almond Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Angela Constance 🛋 18,032 ↑1328 63.09 % ↑8.75
Labour Neil Findlay 📃 🎢 7,396 ↓3766 25.88 % ↓10.43
Conservative Stephanie Smith 2,577 ↑691 9.01 % ↑2.87
Liberal Democrat Charles Dundas 💸 579 ↓77 2.03 % ↓0.10
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,636 Swing: ↑9.59%

Edinburgh Central

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Alison Dickie 8,516 ↑627 27.55 % ↑0.36
Green Alison Johnstone 📃 🎢 7,236 ↑2722 23.41 % ↑7.85
Conservative Ruth Davidson 🎢 5,838 ↑1565 18.88 % ↑4.15
Labour Sarah Boyack 📃 4,719 ↓2402 15.26 % ↓9.28
Liberal Democrat Hannah Bettsworth 4,607 ↓610 14.90 % ↓3.08
SNP HOLD Majority: 1,280 Swing: ↓3.74%

Edinburgh Eastern

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ash Denham 15,709 ↑1157 55.03 % ↑7.67
Labour Kezia Dugdale 📃 🎢 8,163 ↓4156 28.59 % ↓11.50
Conservative Nick Cook 3,593 ↑963 12.59 % ↑4.03
Liberal Democrat Cos D'Inverno 💸 1,083 ↓144 3.80 % ↓0.19
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,546 Swing: ↑9.59%

Edinburgh Northern & Leith

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ben Macpherson 13,238 ↑975 46.84 % ↑7.13
Labour Lesley Hinds 8,520 ↓4338 30.15 % ↓11.48
Conservative Iain McGill 4,000 ↑1072 14.15 % ↑4.67
Liberal Democrat Martin Veart 2,504 ↓332 8.86 % ↓0.32
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,718 Swing: ↑9.30%

Edinburgh Pentlands

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Gordon Lindhurst 12,895 ↑3456 40.90 % ↑9.49
SNP Gordon MacDonald 🛋 12,087 ↑890 38.33 % ↑1.07
Labour Blair Heary 5,296 ↓2697 16.80 % ↓9.80
Liberal Democrat Emma Farthing-Sykes 💸 1,254 ↓166 3.98 % ↓0.75
Conservative GAIN from SNP Majority: 808 Swing: ↑4.21%

Edinburgh Southern

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jim Eadie 🛋 10,738 ↑791 32.74 % ↑3.31
Conservative Miles Briggs 🎢 8,604 ↑2306 26.23 % ↑7.59
Liberal Democrat Pramod Subbaraman 7,326 ↓971 22.34 % ↓2.21
Labour Daniel Johnston 6,132 ↓3122 18.69 % ↓8.69
SNP HOLD Majority: 2,134 Swing: ↓2.14%

Edinburgh Western

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Toni Giugliano 12,917 ↑952 39.44 % ↑3.67
Liberal Democrat Alex Cole-Hamilton 🎢 8,191 ↓1085 25.01 % ↓2.72
Conservative Sandy Batho 6,895 ↑1848 21.05 % ↑5.96
Labour Cat Headley 4,747 ↓2417 14.49 % ↓6.93
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,726 Swing: ↑3.19%

Linlithgow

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Fiona Hyslop 🛋 18,381 ↑1354 58.42 % ↑8.61
Labour Angela Boyd Moohan 8,572 ↓4364 27.24 % ↓10.60
Conservative Charles Kennedy 3,615 ↑969 11.49 % ↑3.75
Liberal Democrat Dan Farthing-Sykes 💸 896 ↓119 2.85 % ↓0.12
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,809 Swing: ↑9.61%

Midlothian North & Musselburgh

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Colin Beattie 🛋 15,199 ↑1120 56.04 % ↑8.82
Labour Bernard Harkins 7,344 ↓3739 27.08 % ↓10.09
Conservative Jeremy Balfour 3,471 ↑930 12.80 % ↑4.28
Liberal Democrat Jacquie Bell 💸 1,107 ↓147 4.08 % ↓0.13
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,855 Swing: ↑9.46%