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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Survation/Daily Record, 3rd May 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Mid Scotland and Fife region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Survation and published in the Daily Record on 3rd May.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑3.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓10.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑5.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑2.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓1.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑7.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑2.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑1.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓3.43

Our forecast

Mid Scotland and Fife: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 43.70 % 17.90 % 22.63 % 6.68 % 6.71 % 2.39 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 113,985 46,691 59,020 17,436 17,495 6,230 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,399 46,691 59,020 17,436 17,495 6,230 0
2nd divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,399 46,691 29,510 17,436 17,495 6,230 0
3rd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,399 23,346 29,510 17,436 17,495 6,230 0
4th divisor 10 2 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,399 23,346 19,673 17,436 17,495 6,230 0
5th divisor 10 3 3 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 11,399 15,564 19,673 17,436 17,495 6,230 0
6th divisor 10 3 4 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 11,399 15,564 14,755 17,436 17,495 6,230 0
7th divisor 10 3 4 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 11,399 15,564 14,755 17,436 8,748 6,230 0
8th divisor 10 3 4 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 11,399 15,564 14,755 8,718 8,748 6,230 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Murdo Fraser
2 Labour Alex Rowley
3 Conservative Liz Smith
4 Labour Claire Baker
5 Conservative Dean Lockhart
6 Green Mark Ruskell
7 Liberal Democrat Willie Rennie

Constituencies in Mid Scotland and Fife region

Clackmannanshire & Dunblane

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Keith Brown 🛋 14,307 ↑1054 54.24 % ↑5.90
Labour Craig Miller 6,390 ↓3254 24.22 % ↓10.96
Conservative Alexander Stewart 4,783 ↑1282 18.13 % ↑5.36
Liberal Democrat Christopher McKinlay 💸 899 ↓119 3.41 % ↓0.30
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,917 Swing: ↑8.43%

Cowdenbeath

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Annabelle Ewing 📃 11,528 ↑849 50.66 % ↑9.06
Labour Alex Rowley 🎢 7,902 ↓4024 34.72 % ↓11.74
Conservative Dave Dempsey 2,448 ↑656 10.76 % ↑3.78
Liberal Democrat Bryn Jones 💸 880 ↓117 3.87 % ↓0.01
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,626 Swing: ↑10.40%

Dunfermline

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Shirley-Anne Somerville 11,886 ↑876 44.43 % ↑6.85
Labour Cara Hilton 6,904 ↓3516 25.81 % ↓9.75
Liberal Democrat James Calder 5,100 ↓676 19.07 % ↓0.64
Conservative James Reekie 2,859 ↑766 10.69 % ↑3.55
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,982 Swing: ↑8.30%

Kirkcaldy

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP David Torrance 🛋 13,579 ↑1000 53.76 % ↑8.52
Labour Claire Baker 🎢 8,214 ↓4183 32.52 % ↓12.07
Conservative Martin Laidlaw 2,742 ↑735 10.86 % ↑3.64
Liberal Democrat Lauren Jones 💸 724 ↓96 2.87 % ↓0.08
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,365 Swing: ↑10.29%

Mid Fife & Glenrothes

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jenny Gilruth 14,855 ↑1094 61.78 % ↑9.48
Labour Kay Morrison 6,343 ↓3230 26.38 % ↓10.00
Conservative Alex Stewart-Clark 2,290 ↑614 9.52 % ↑3.15
Liberal Democrat Jane-Ann Liston 💸 556 ↓74 2.31 % ↓0.08
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,512 Swing: ↑9.74%

North East Fife

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Rod Campbell 11,906 ↑877 40.46 % ↑3.30
Conservative Huw Bell 7,675 ↑2057 26.08 % ↑7.15
Liberal Democrat Willie Rennie 📃 🎢 7,450 ↓987 25.32 % ↓3.11
Labour Rosalind Garton 2,394 ↓1219 8.14 % ↓4.03
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,231 Swing: ↓1.93%

Perthshire North

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP John Swinney 🛋 19,668 ↑1449 59.17 % ↓1.66
Conservative Murdo Fraser 📃 🎢 10,746 ↑2880 32.33 % ↑6.07
Labour Anna McEwan 1,771 ↓901 5.33 % ↓3.59
Liberal Democrat Peter Barrett 💸 1,056 ↓140 3.18 % ↓0.81
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,922 Swing: ↓3.87%

Perthshire South & Kinross-shire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Roseanna Cunningham 🛋 17,351 ↑1278 50.81 % ↓0.68
Conservative Liz Smith 🎢 12,168 ↑3261 35.63 % ↑7.10
Labour Scott Nicholson 2,637 ↓1343 7.72 % ↓5.03
Liberal Democrat Willie Robertson 1,992 ↓264 5.83 % ↓1.40
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,183 Swing: ↓3.89%

Stirling

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Bruce Crawford 🛋 16,040 ↑1182 54.24 % ↑5.37
Conservative Dean Lockhart 🎢 6,298 ↑1688 21.30 % ↑6.14
Labour Rebecca Bell 6,088 ↓3100 20.59 % ↓9.63
Liberal Democrat Elisabeth Wilson 💸 1,144 ↓152 3.87 % ↓0.39
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,742 Swing: ↓0.38%