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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Survation/Daily Record, 3rd May 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the North East region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Survation and published in the Daily Record on 3rd May.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑3.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓10.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑5.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑2.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓1.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑7.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑2.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑1.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓3.43

Our forecast

North East: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 50.30 % 11.60 % 22.32 % 7.68 % 6.10 % 1.99 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 10
Votes 137,485 31,713 61,000 20,986 16,683 5,438 0
1st divisor 11 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 12,499 31,713 61,000 20,986 16,683 5,438 0
2nd divisor 11 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 12,499 31,713 30,500 20,986 16,683 5,438 0
3rd divisor 11 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 12,499 15,857 30,500 20,986 16,683 5,438 0
4th divisor 11 2 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 12,499 15,857 20,333 20,986 16,683 5,438 0
5th divisor 11 2 3 2 1 1 1
5th allocation 12,499 15,857 20,333 10,493 16,683 5,438 0
6th divisor 11 2 4 2 1 1 1
6th allocation 12,499 15,857 15,250 10,493 16,683 5,438 0
7th divisor 11 2 4 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 12,499 15,857 15,250 10,493 8,342 5,438 0
8th divisor 11 3 4 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 12,499 10,571 15,250 10,493 8,342 5,438 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Alex Johnstone
2 Labour Jenny Marra
3 Conservative Alexander Burnett
4 Liberal Democrat Mike Rumbles
5 Conservative Ross Thomson
6 Green Maggie Chapman
7 Labour Lewis MacDonald

Constituencies in North East region

Aberdeen Central

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Kevin Stewart 🛋 10,858 ↑800 46.36 % ↑6.37
Labour Lewis Macdonald 6,256 ↓3185 26.71 % ↓10.83
Conservative Tom Mason 4,235 ↑1135 18.08 % ↑5.75
Liberal Democrat Liam Bruce 2,074 ↓275 8.86 % ↓0.48
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,602 Swing: ↑8.60%

Aberdeen Donside

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Mark McDonald 📃 15,966 ↑1176 62.89 % ↑7.62
Labour Greg Williams 5,046 ↓2569 19.87 % ↓8.59
Conservative Liam Kerr 2,959 ↑793 11.66 % ↑3.57
Liberal Democrat Isobel Davidson 1,418 ↓188 5.59 % ↓0.41
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,920 Swing: ↑8.11%

Aberdeen South & North Kincardine

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Maureen Watt 🛋 12,897 ↑950 48.53 % ↑6.83
Conservative Ross Thomson 🎢 5,544 ↑1486 20.86 % ↑6.70
Liberal Democrat John Waddell 4,410 ↓584 16.59 % ↓0.84
Labour Alison Evison 3,727 ↓1897 14.02 % ↓5.61
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,353 Swing: ↑0.06%

Aberdeenshire East

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gillian Martin 21,086 ↑1553 65.67 % ↑1.17
Conservative Colin Clark 5,753 ↑1542 17.92 % ↑4.02
Liberal Democrat Christine Jardine 3,742 ↓496 11.66 % ↓2.33
Labour Sarah Flavell 💸 1,527 ↓777 4.75 % ↓2.86
SNP HOLD Majority: 15,333 Swing: ↓1.42%

Aberdeenshire West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Dennis Robertson 🛋 13,155 ↑969 43.74 % ↑1.19
Conservative Alexander Burnett 🎢 8,234 ↑2207 27.38 % ↑6.33
Liberal Democrat Mike Rumbles 🎢 7,129 ↓945 23.71 % ↓4.49
Labour Sarah Duncan 1,556 ↓793 5.18 % ↓3.02
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,921 Swing: ↓2.57%

Angus North & Mearns

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Mari Evans 14,746 ↑1086 54.47 % ↓0.35
Conservative Alex Johnstone 📃 🎢 8,708 ↑2334 32.17 % ↑6.59
Labour John Ruddy 2,094 ↓1066 7.73 % ↓4.95
Liberal Democrat Euan Davidson 1,524 ↓202 5.63 % ↓1.30
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,038 Swing: ↓3.47%

Angus South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Graeme Dey 🛋 17,450 ↑1286 61.66 % ↑3.19
Conservative Kirstene Hair 7,625 ↑2044 26.94 % ↑6.75
Labour Joanne McFadden 2,454 ↓1249 8.67 % ↓4.73
Liberal Democrat Clive Sneddon 💸 772 ↓102 2.73 % ↓0.43
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,825 Swing: ↓1.78%

Banffshire & Buchan Coast

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Stewart Stevenson 🛋 18,149 ↑1337 67.17 % ↓0.07
Conservative Peter Chapman 6,273 ↑1681 23.22 % ↑4.85
Labour Nathan Morrison 1,751 ↓891 6.48 % ↓4.09
Liberal Democrat David Evans 💸 846 ↓112 3.13 % ↓0.70
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,876 Swing: ↓2.46%

Dundee City East

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Shona Robison 🛋 17,857 ↑1316 68.86 % ↑4.63
Labour Richard McCready 3,884 ↓1978 14.98 % ↓7.78
Conservative Bill Bowman 3,484 ↑934 13.43 % ↑3.53
Liberal Democrat Craig Duncan 💸 706 ↓94 2.72 % ↓0.39
SNP HOLD Majority: 13,973 Swing: ↑6.21%

Dundee City West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Joe Fitzpatrick 🛋 15,209 ↑1120 64.83 % ↑7.23
Labour Jenny Marra 📃 🎢 5,092 ↓2592 21.70 % ↓9.71
Conservative Nicola Ross 2,220 ↑595 9.46 % ↑2.82
Liberal Democrat Daniel Coleman 💸 939 ↓124 4.00 % ↓0.35
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,117 Swing: ↑8.47%