Does Cutbot cut it?

Tell us which Cutbot services you’d like to try out and we’ll be back in touch to set up a free trial for you. We’ll also be happy to meet up or chat through how to get the most out of that trial account. Discounts are available for charities, small businesses, agencies, and the public sector.
Our online media monitoring scans more than 1.7 million articles a week for you from around the world, from newspapers, magazines and broadcaster websites to blogs and organisations.
Our public affairs monitoring currently covers the Scottish Government and the Scottish Parliament, with Whitehall, Westminster and the other devolved bodies coming soon.







stay informed

Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Survation/Daily Record, 3rd May 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the South region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Survation and published in the Daily Record on 3rd May.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑3.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓10.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑5.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑2.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓1.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑7.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑2.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑1.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓3.43

Our forecast

South: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 38.64 % 17.66 % 30.46 % 6.03 % 4.74 % 2.46 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 5 4
Votes 111,620 51,006 87,988 17,428 13,682 7,119 0
1st divisor 6 1 5 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 18,603 51,006 17,598 17,428 13,682 7,119 0
2nd divisor 6 2 5 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 18,603 25,503 17,598 17,428 13,682 7,119 0
3rd divisor 6 3 5 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 18,603 17,002 17,598 17,428 13,682 7,119 0
4th divisor 7 3 5 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 15,946 17,002 17,598 17,428 13,682 7,119 0
5th divisor 7 3 6 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 15,946 17,002 14,665 17,428 13,682 7,119 0
6th divisor 7 3 6 2 1 1 1
6th allocation 15,946 17,002 14,665 8,714 13,682 7,119 0
7th divisor 7 4 6 2 1 1 1
7th allocation 15,946 12,752 14,665 8,714 13,682 7,119 0
8th divisor 8 4 6 2 1 1 1
8th allocation 13,953 12,752 14,665 8,714 13,682 7,119 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Iain Gray
2 Labour Claudia Beamish
3 SNP Joan McAlpine
4 Conservative Rachael Hamilton
5 Liberal Democrat Jim Hume
6 Labour Colin Smyth
7 SNP Emma Harper

Constituencies in South region

Ayr

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative John Scott 🛋 17,756 ↑4759 48.82 % ↑9.88
SNP Jennifer Dunn 12,829 ↑945 35.27 % ↓0.34
Labour Brian McGinley 5,155 ↓2624 14.17 % ↓9.14
Liberal Democrat Robbie Simpson 💸 630 ↓83 1.73 % ↓0.41
Conservative HOLD Majority: 4,927 Swing: ↑5.11%

Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jeane Freeman 14,304 ↑1054 51.81 % ↑5.65
Labour Carol Mochan 7,069 ↓3600 25.61 % ↓11.56
Conservative Lee Lyons 5,683 ↑1523 20.59 % ↑6.10
Liberal Democrat Dawud Islam 💸 551 ↓73 2.00 % ↓0.17
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,235 Swing: ↑8.61%

Clydesdale

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Aileen Campbell 🛋 15,774 ↑1162 54.52 % ↑5.71
Labour Claudia Beamish 📃 🎢 6,889 ↓3507 23.81 % ↓10.92
Conservative Alex Allison 5,426 ↑1454 18.75 % ↑5.48
Liberal Democrat Fraser Grieve 💸 845 ↓112 2.92 % ↓0.28
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,885 Swing: ↑8.31%

Dumfriesshire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Oliver Mundell 12,935 ↑3467 40.93 % ↑11.25
SNP Joan McAlpine 📃 🎢 9,051 ↑667 28.64 % ↑2.35
Labour Elaine Murray 🛋 8,365 ↓4259 26.47 % ↓13.11
Liberal Democrat Richard Brodie 💸 1,253 ↓166 3.96 % ↓0.49
Conservative GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,884 Swing: ↑4.45%

East Lothian

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP DJ Johnston-Smith 13,370 ↑985 43.60 % ↑5.11
Labour Iain Gray 🛋 🎢 8,307 ↓4229 27.09 % ↓11.87
Conservative Rachael Hamilton 🎢 7,301 ↑1957 23.81 % ↑7.20
Liberal Democrat Ettie Spencer 1,688 ↓224 5.51 % ↓0.43
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 5,063 Swing: ↑8.49%

Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative John Lamont 🛋 17,669 ↑4736 54.77 % ↑9.89
SNP Paul Wheelhouse 📃 8,203 ↑604 25.43 % ↓0.94
Liberal Democrat Jim Hume 📃 🎢 4,406 ↓584 13.66 % ↓3.66
Labour Barrie Cunning 1,979 ↓1007 6.13 % ↓4.23
Conservative HOLD Majority: 9,466 Swing: ↑5.42%

Galloway & West Dumfries

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Finlay Carson 15,125 ↑4054 47.13 % ↑10.22
SNP Aileen McLeod 📃 11,021 ↑812 34.34 % ↑0.31
Labour Fiona O'Donnell 5,270 ↓2684 16.42 % ↓10.10
Liberal Democrat Andrew Metcalf 💸 674 ↓89 2.10 % ↓0.44
Conservative HOLD Majority: 4,104 Swing: ↑4.96%

Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Willie Coffey 🛋 18,313 ↑1349 59.76 % ↑6.51
Labour Dave Meechan 7,270 ↓3701 23.72 % ↓10.72
Conservative Brian Whittle 4,521 ↑1212 14.75 % ↑4.36
Liberal Democrat Rebecca Plenderleith 💸 542 ↓72 1.77 % ↓0.16
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,043 Swing: ↑8.62%

Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Christine Grahame 🛋 14,957 ↑1102 47.52 % ↑4.01
Liberal Democrat Kris Chapman 7,886 ↓1045 25.05 % ↓3.00
Conservative Michelle Ballantyne 5,114 ↑1371 16.25 % ↑4.49
Labour Fiona Dugdale 3,520 ↓1792 11.18 % ↓5.50
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,071 Swing: ↑3.50%