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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Survation/Daily Record, 3rd May 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the West region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Survation and published in the Daily Record on 3rd May.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑3.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓10.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑5.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑2.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓1.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑7.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑2.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑1.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓3.43

Our forecast

West: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 42.73 % 24.93 % 21.73 % 3.94 % 5.03 % 1.64 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9 1
Votes 114,586 66,854 58,271 10,561 13,488 4,391 0
1st divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,459 66,854 29,136 10,561 13,488 4,391 0
2nd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,459 33,427 29,136 10,561 13,488 4,391 0
3rd divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,459 22,285 29,136 10,561 13,488 4,391 0
4th divisor 10 3 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,459 22,285 19,424 10,561 13,488 4,391 0
5th divisor 10 4 3 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 11,459 16,714 19,424 10,561 13,488 4,391 0
6th divisor 10 4 4 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 11,459 16,714 14,568 10,561 13,488 4,391 0
7th divisor 10 5 4 1 1 1 1
7th allocation 11,459 13,371 14,568 10,561 13,488 4,391 0
8th divisor 10 5 5 1 1 1 1
8th allocation 11,459 13,371 11,654 10,561 13,488 4,391 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Jackie Baillie
2 Labour Neil Bibby
3 Conservative Jamie Greene
4 Labour Mary Fee
5 Conservative Maurice Golden
6 Labour Ken Macintosh
7 Conservative Maurice Corry

Constituencies in West region

Clydebank & Milngavie

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gil Paterson 🛋 13,254 ↑976 50.50 % ↑7.22
Labour Gail Casey 7,663 ↓3901 29.19 % ↓11.57
Conservative Maurice Golden 🎢 3,768 ↑1010 14.36 % ↑4.64
Liberal Democrat Frank Bowles 1,562 ↓207 5.95 % ↓0.29
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,591 Swing: ↑9.39%

Cunninghame North

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Kenneth Gibson 🛋 16,775 ↑1236 57.83 % ↑5.22
Labour Johanna Baxter 6,243 ↓3179 21.52 % ↓10.38
Conservative Jamie Greene 🎢 5,508 ↑1476 18.99 % ↑5.34
Liberal Democrat Charity Pierce 💸 479 ↓64 1.65 % ↓0.19
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,532 Swing: ↑7.80%

Cunninghame South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ruth Maguire 11,867 ↑874 57.51 % ↑7.67
Labour Joe Cullinane 5,728 ↓2917 27.76 % ↓11.44
Conservative William McClure 2,556 ↑685 12.39 % ↑3.91
Liberal Democrat Ruby Kirkwood 💸 483 ↓64 2.34 % ↓0.14
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,139 Swing: ↑9.55%

Dumbarton

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gail Robertson 11,792 ↑869 46.22 % ↑7.90
Labour Jackie Baillie 🛋 🎢 8,324 ↓4238 32.63 % ↓11.43
Conservative Maurice Corry 🎢 4,638 ↑1243 18.18 % ↑6.27
Liberal Democrat Aileen Morton 💸 758 ↓100 2.97 % ↓0.04
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,468 Swing: ↑9.66%

Eastwood

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Jackson Carlaw 📃 14,550 ↑3900 45.36 % ↑12.00
SNP Stewart Maxwell 📃 8,396 ↑619 26.18 % ↑1.82
Labour Ken Macintosh 🛋 🎢 8,390 ↓4272 26.16 % ↓13.50
Liberal Democrat John Duncan 💸 737 ↓98 2.30 % ↓0.32
Conservative GAIN from Labour Majority: 6,154 Swing: ↑5.09%

Greenock & Inverclyde

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Stuart McMillan 📃 12,820 ↑944 50.31 % ↑8.21
Labour Siobhan McCready 8,208 ↓4179 32.21 % ↓11.70
Conservative Graeme Brooks 2,747 ↑736 10.78 % ↑3.65
Liberal Democrat John Watson 1,708 ↓226 6.70 % ↓0.16
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,612 Swing: ↑9.96%

Paisley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP George Adam 🛋 11,781 ↑868 50.20 % ↑7.55
Labour Neil Bibby 📃 🎢 7,067 ↓3598 30.11 % ↓11.57
Conservative Paul Masterton 3,045 ↑816 12.98 % ↑4.27
Liberal Democrat Eileen McCartin 1,574 ↓209 6.71 % ↓0.26
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,714 Swing: ↑9.56%

Renfrewshire North & West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Derek Mackay 12,425 ↑915 46.02 % ↑4.16
Conservative David Wilson 7,499 ↑2010 27.77 % ↑7.81
Labour Mary Fee 📃 🎢 6,590 ↓3356 24.41 % ↓11.76
Liberal Democrat Rod Ackland 💸 486 ↓64 1.80 % ↓0.20
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,926 Swing: ↓1.83%

Renfrewshire South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Tom Arthur 11,180 ↑824 45.90 % ↑7.41
Labour Paul O'Kane 8,570 ↓4363 35.19 % ↓12.87
Conservative Ann Leblond 3,985 ↑1068 16.36 % ↑5.52
Liberal Democrat Tristan Gray 💸 620 ↓82 2.55 % ↓0.06
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 2,610 Swing: ↑10.14%

Strathkelvin & Bearsden

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Rona Mackay 15,392 ↑1134 48.09 % ↑5.85
Labour Margaret McCarthy 8,254 ↓4202 25.79 % ↓11.11
Conservative Andrew Polson 6,063 ↑1625 18.94 % ↑5.79
Liberal Democrat Katy Gordon 2,296 ↓304 7.17 % ↓0.53
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,138 Swing: ↑8.48%