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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Panelbase/Sunday Times, 17th April 2016

These are our MSP forecasts for the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Panelbase and published in the Sunday Times on 17th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑5.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓12.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑4.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓2.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑5.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑2.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓8.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑6.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓1.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↓0.91
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓2.43

Our forecast

Seats Total Constituencies Regional seats
2011 Forecast Change 2011 Forecast Change 2011 Forecast Change
SNP 69 72 ↑3 53 67 ↑14 16 5 ↓11
Conservative 15 24 ↑9 3 5 ↑2 12 19 ↑7
Labour 37 23 ↓14 15 — ↓15 22 23 ↑1
Green 2 9 ↑7 — — ↔ 2 9 ↑7
Lib Dem 5 1 ↓4 2 1 ↓1 3 — ↓3
Independent 1 — ↓1 — — ↔ 1 — ↓1
Regions Constituencies
Central C                  
R              
Glasgow C                  
R              
Highlands and Islands C                
R              
Lothian C                  
R              
Mid Scotland and Fife C                  
R              
North East C                    
R              
South C                  
R              
West C                    
R              

Most marginal constituencies

Constituency Winner Margin Outcome
Edinburgh Pentlands SNP 364 HOLD over Conservative
Orkney Islands SNP 460 GAIN over Liberal Democrat
Edinburgh Central SNP 594 HOLD over Green
Shetland Islands Liberal Democrat 1,540 HOLD over SNP
Glasgow Kelvin SNP 2,082 HOLD over Green
Dumfriesshire Conservative 2,834 GAIN over SNP
Galloway & West Dumfries Conservative 2,858 HOLD over SNP
Glasgow Provan SNP 2,925 GAIN over Labour
Edinburgh Southern SNP 3,025 HOLD over Conservative
Coatbridge & Chryston SNP 3,237 GAIN over Labour

Narrowest regional wins

Region 7th place Next party Allocation shortfall Equivalent votes
North East Conservative Lib Dem 497 497
Central Conservative Labour 147 731
Lothian Conservative Labour 832 2,495
Mid Scotland and Fife Labour Conservative 727 2,909
South Green SNP 385 3,084
West Green Conservative 1,576 6,303
Glasgow Green Labour 1,410 7,052
Highlands and Islands SNP SNP Same party would win the next seat