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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Panelbase/Sunday Times, 17th April 2016

These are our forecasts for regional MSPs in the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Panelbase and published in the Sunday Times on 17th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑5.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓12.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑4.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓2.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑5.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑2.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓8.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑6.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓1.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↓0.91
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓2.43

Our forecast

Regions

Central C                  
R              
Glasgow C                  
R              
Highlands and Islands C                
R              
Lothian C                  
R              
Mid Scotland and Fife C                  
R              
North East C                    
R              
South C                  
R              
West C                    
R              

Central

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 55.63 % 27.16 % 11.01 % 1.23 % 4.97 % 0.00 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 115,588 56,442 22,869 2,554 10,322 0 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,559 56,442 22,869 2,554 10,322 0 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,559 28,221 22,869 2,554 10,322 0 0
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,559 18,814 22,869 2,554 10,322 0 0
4th divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,559 18,814 11,435 2,554 10,322 0 0
5th divisor 10 4 2 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 11,559 14,111 11,435 2,554 10,322 0 0
6th divisor 10 5 2 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 11,559 11,288 11,435 2,554 10,322 0 0
7th divisor 11 5 2 1 1 1 1
7th allocation 10,508 11,288 11,435 2,554 10,322 0 0
8th divisor 11 5 3 1 1 1 1
8th allocation 10,508 11,288 7,623 2,554 10,322 0 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Richard Leonard
2 Labour Monica Lennon
3 Conservative Margaret Mitchell
4 Labour Mark Griffin
5 Labour Elaine Smith
6 SNP Sophia Coyle
7 Conservative Graham Simpson

Glasgow

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 47.90 % 26.99 % 10.58 % 2.21 % 12.32 % 0.00 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 88,734 49,988 19,607 4,088 22,816 0 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 8,873 49,988 19,607 4,088 22,816 0 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 8,873 24,994 19,607 4,088 22,816 0 0
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 8,873 16,663 19,607 4,088 22,816 0 0
4th divisor 10 3 1 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 8,873 16,663 19,607 4,088 11,408 0 0
5th divisor 10 3 2 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 8,873 16,663 9,804 4,088 11,408 0 0
6th divisor 10 4 2 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 8,873 12,497 9,804 4,088 11,408 0 0
7th divisor 10 5 2 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 8,873 9,998 9,804 4,088 11,408 0 0
8th divisor 10 5 2 1 3 1 1
8th allocation 8,873 9,998 9,804 4,088 7,605 0 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Anas Sarwar
2 Labour Johann Lamont
3 Green Patrick Harvie
4 Conservative Adam Tomkins
5 Labour James Kelly
6 Labour Pauline McNeill
7 Green Zara Kitson

Highlands and Islands

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 52.22 % 10.18 % 18.43 % 9.61 % 9.56 % 0.00 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 7 1
Votes 90,840 17,717 32,055 16,724 16,627 0 0
1st divisor 8 1 1 2 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,355 17,717 32,055 8,362 16,627 0 0
2nd divisor 8 1 2 2 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,355 17,717 16,028 8,362 16,627 0 0
3rd divisor 8 2 2 2 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,355 8,859 16,028 8,362 16,627 0 0
4th divisor 8 2 2 2 2 1 1
4th allocation 11,355 8,859 16,028 8,362 8,314 0 0
5th divisor 8 2 3 2 2 1 1
5th allocation 11,355 8,859 10,685 8,362 8,314 0 0
6th divisor 9 2 3 2 2 1 1
6th allocation 10,093 8,859 10,685 8,362 8,314 0 0
7th divisor 9 2 4 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 10,093 8,859 8,014 8,362 8,314 0 0
8th divisor 10 2 4 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 9,084 8,859 8,014 8,362 8,314 0 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Douglas Ross
2 Labour Rhoda Grant
3 Green John Finnie
4 Conservative Edward Mountain
5 SNP Maree Todd
6 Conservative Donald Cameron
7 SNP Laura Mitchell

Lothian

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 44.05 % 17.96 % 18.88 % 4.46 % 14.65 % 0.00 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 118,462 48,286 50,780 11,997 39,398 0 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,846 48,286 50,780 11,997 39,398 0 0
2nd divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,846 48,286 25,390 11,997 39,398 0 0
3rd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,846 24,143 25,390 11,997 39,398 0 0
4th divisor 10 2 2 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 11,846 24,143 25,390 11,997 19,699 0 0
5th divisor 10 2 3 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 11,846 24,143 16,927 11,997 19,699 0 0
6th divisor 10 3 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 11,846 16,095 16,927 11,997 19,699 0 0
7th divisor 10 3 3 1 3 1 1
7th allocation 11,846 16,095 16,927 11,997 13,133 0 0
8th divisor 10 3 4 1 3 1 1
8th allocation 11,846 16,095 12,695 11,997 13,133 0 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Ruth Davidson
2 Labour Kezia Dugdale
3 Green Alison Johnstone
4 Conservative Miles Briggs
5 Labour Neil Findlay
6 Green Andy Wightman
7 Conservative Gordon Lindhurst

Mid Scotland and Fife

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 48.57 % 17.24 % 21.86 % 4.53 % 7.79 % 0.00 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 124,588 44,233 56,069 11,624 19,995 0 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 12,459 44,233 56,069 11,624 19,995 0 0
2nd divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 12,459 44,233 28,035 11,624 19,995 0 0
3rd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 12,459 22,117 28,035 11,624 19,995 0 0
4th divisor 10 2 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 12,459 22,117 18,690 11,624 19,995 0 0
5th divisor 10 3 3 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 12,459 14,744 18,690 11,624 19,995 0 0
6th divisor 10 3 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 12,459 14,744 18,690 11,624 9,998 0 0
7th divisor 10 3 4 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 12,459 14,744 14,017 11,624 9,998 0 0
8th divisor 10 4 4 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 12,459 11,058 14,017 11,624 9,998 0 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Murdo Fraser
2 Labour Alex Rowley
3 Conservative Liz Smith
4 Labour Claire Baker
5 Green Mark Ruskell
6 Conservative Dean Lockhart
7 Labour Thomas Docherty

North East

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 55.39 % 11.07 % 21.36 % 5.16 % 7.03 % 0.00 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 10
Votes 150,275 30,044 57,950 13,991 19,066 0 0
1st divisor 11 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 13,661 30,044 57,950 13,991 19,066 0 0
2nd divisor 11 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 13,661 30,044 28,975 13,991 19,066 0 0
3rd divisor 11 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 13,661 15,022 28,975 13,991 19,066 0 0
4th divisor 11 2 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 13,661 15,022 19,317 13,991 19,066 0 0
5th divisor 11 2 4 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 13,661 15,022 14,488 13,991 19,066 0 0
6th divisor 11 2 4 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 13,661 15,022 14,488 13,991 9,533 0 0
7th divisor 11 3 4 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 13,661 10,015 14,488 13,991 9,533 0 0
8th divisor 11 3 5 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 13,661 10,015 11,590 13,991 9,533 0 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Alex Johnstone
2 Labour Jenny Marra
3 Conservative Alexander Burnett
4 Conservative Ross Thomson
5 Green Maggie Chapman
6 Labour Lewis MacDonald
7 Conservative Peter Chapman

South

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 43.39 % 17.19 % 29.73 % 4.13 % 5.56 % 0.00 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 5 4
Votes 122,004 48,321 83,589 11,619 15,636 0 0
1st divisor 6 1 5 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 20,334 48,321 16,718 11,619 15,636 0 0
2nd divisor 6 2 5 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 20,334 24,161 16,718 11,619 15,636 0 0
3rd divisor 6 3 5 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 20,334 16,107 16,718 11,619 15,636 0 0
4th divisor 7 3 5 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 17,429 16,107 16,718 11,619 15,636 0 0
5th divisor 8 3 5 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 15,251 16,107 16,718 11,619 15,636 0 0
6th divisor 8 3 6 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 15,251 16,107 13,932 11,619 15,636 0 0
7th divisor 8 4 6 1 1 1 1
7th allocation 15,251 12,080 13,932 11,619 15,636 0 0
8th divisor 8 4 6 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 15,251 12,080 13,932 11,619 7,818 0 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Iain Gray
2 Labour Claudia Beamish
3 SNP Joan McAlpine
4 SNP Emma Harper
5 Conservative Rachael Hamilton
6 Labour Colin Smyth
7 Green Sarah Beattie-Smith

West

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 47.02 % 23.78 % 20.78 % 2.64 % 5.79 % 0.00 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9 1
Votes 125,245 63,335 55,357 7,041 15,415 0 0
1st divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 12,525 63,335 27,679 7,041 15,415 0 0
2nd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 12,525 31,668 27,679 7,041 15,415 0 0
3rd divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 12,525 21,112 27,679 7,041 15,415 0 0
4th divisor 10 3 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 12,525 21,112 18,452 7,041 15,415 0 0
5th divisor 10 4 3 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 12,525 15,834 18,452 7,041 15,415 0 0
6th divisor 10 4 4 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 12,525 15,834 13,839 7,041 15,415 0 0
7th divisor 10 5 4 1 1 1 1
7th allocation 12,525 12,667 13,839 7,041 15,415 0 0
8th divisor 10 5 4 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 12,525 12,667 13,839 7,041 7,708 0 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Jackie Baillie
2 Labour Neil Bibby
3 Conservative Jamie Greene
4 Labour Mary Fee
5 Conservative Maurice Golden
6 Labour Ken Macintosh
7 Green Ross Greer