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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Panelbase/Sunday Times, 17th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Highlands and Islands region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Panelbase and published in the Sunday Times on 17th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑5.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓12.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑4.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓2.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑5.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑2.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓8.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑6.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓1.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↓0.91
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓2.43

Our forecast

Highlands and Islands: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 52.22 % 10.18 % 18.43 % 9.61 % 9.56 % 0.00 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 7 1
Votes 90,840 17,717 32,055 16,724 16,627 0 0
1st divisor 8 1 1 2 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,355 17,717 32,055 8,362 16,627 0 0
2nd divisor 8 1 2 2 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,355 17,717 16,028 8,362 16,627 0 0
3rd divisor 8 2 2 2 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,355 8,859 16,028 8,362 16,627 0 0
4th divisor 8 2 2 2 2 1 1
4th allocation 11,355 8,859 16,028 8,362 8,314 0 0
5th divisor 8 2 3 2 2 1 1
5th allocation 11,355 8,859 10,685 8,362 8,314 0 0
6th divisor 9 2 3 2 2 1 1
6th allocation 10,093 8,859 10,685 8,362 8,314 0 0
7th divisor 9 2 4 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 10,093 8,859 8,014 8,362 8,314 0 0
8th divisor 10 2 4 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 9,084 8,859 8,014 8,362 8,314 0 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Douglas Ross
2 Labour Rhoda Grant
3 Green John Finnie
4 Conservative Edward Mountain
5 SNP Maree Todd
6 Conservative Donald Cameron
7 SNP Laura Mitchell

Constituencies in Highlands and Islands region

Argyll & Bute

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Michael Russell 🛋 15,045 ↑1655 58.38 % ↑7.81
Conservative Donald Cameron 🎢 6,273 ↑1426 24.34 % ↑6.03
Labour Mick Rice 2,423 ↓1618 9.40 % ↓5.86
Liberal Democrat Alan Reid 2,031 ↓1189 7.88 % ↓4.28
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,772 Swing: ↑0.89%

Caithness, Sutherland & Ross

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gail Ross 15,554 ↑1711 58.39 % ↑9.99
Liberal Democrat Jamie Stone 4,027 ↓2358 15.12 % ↓7.21
Conservative Struan Mackie 3,797 ↑863 14.26 % ↑4.00
Labour Leah Franchetti 3,260 ↓2178 12.24 % ↓6.77
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,527 Swing: ↑8.60%

Inverness & Nairn

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Fergus Ewing 🛋 18,955 ↑2085 62.12 % ↑10.58
Conservative Edward Mountain 🎢 4,914 ↑1117 16.11 % ↑4.51
Labour David Stewart 📃 4,272 ↓2853 14.00 % ↓7.77
Liberal Democrat Carolyn Caddick 2,373 ↓1390 7.78 % ↓3.72
SNP HOLD Majority: 14,041 Swing: ↑3.04%

Moray

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Richard Lochhead 🛋 18,895 ↑2078 64.10 % ↑5.29
Conservative Douglas Ross 🎢 7,601 ↑1728 25.79 % ↑5.25
Labour Sean Morton 2,146 ↓1434 7.28 % ↓5.24
Liberal Democrat Jamie Paterson 💸 837 ↓490 2.84 % ↓1.80
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,294 Swing: ↑0.02%

Na h-Eileanan an Iar

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Alasdair Allan 🛋 9,546 ↑1050 75.45 % ↑10.15
Labour Rhoda Grant 📃 🎢 2,233 ↓1491 17.65 % ↓10.97
Conservative Ranald Fraser 729 ↑166 5.76 % ↑1.43
Liberal Democrat Ken MacLeod 💸 144 ↓84 1.14 % ↓0.61
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,313 Swing: ↑10.56%

Orkney Islands

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Donna Heddle 2,297 ↑253 43.36 % ↑18.29
Liberal Democrat Liam McArthur 🛋 1,837 ↓1075 34.67 % ↓1.05
Conservative Jamie Halcro Johnston 888 ↑202 16.76 % ↑8.34
Labour Gerry McGarvey 275 ↓183 5.18 % ↓0.44
SNP GAIN from Liberal Democrat Majority: 460 Swing: ↑9.67%

Shetland Islands

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Liberal Democrat Tavish Scott 🛋 2,814 ↓1648 57.59 % ↑10.08
SNP Danus Skene 1,274 ↑140 26.07 % ↑13.99
Conservative Cameron Smith 427 ↑97 8.74 % ↑5.23
Labour Robina Barton 372 ↓248 7.61 % ↑1.01
Liberal Democrat HOLD Majority: 1,540 Swing: ↓1.96%

Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Kate Forbes 16,558 ↑1821 57.42 % ↑11.24
Liberal Democrat Angela MacLean 6,145 ↓3597 21.31 % ↓9.21
Conservative Robbie Munro 3,668 ↑834 12.72 % ↑3.84
Labour Linda Stewart 2,465 ↓1647 8.55 % ↓4.33
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,413 Swing: ↑10.23%