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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Panelbase/Sunday Times, 17th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Lothian region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Panelbase and published in the Sunday Times on 17th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑5.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓12.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑4.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓2.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑5.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑2.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓8.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑6.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓1.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↓0.91
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓2.43

Our forecast

Lothian: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 44.05 % 17.96 % 18.88 % 4.46 % 14.65 % 0.00 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 118,462 48,286 50,780 11,997 39,398 0 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,846 48,286 50,780 11,997 39,398 0 0
2nd divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,846 48,286 25,390 11,997 39,398 0 0
3rd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,846 24,143 25,390 11,997 39,398 0 0
4th divisor 10 2 2 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 11,846 24,143 25,390 11,997 19,699 0 0
5th divisor 10 2 3 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 11,846 24,143 16,927 11,997 19,699 0 0
6th divisor 10 3 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 11,846 16,095 16,927 11,997 19,699 0 0
7th divisor 10 3 3 1 3 1 1
7th allocation 11,846 16,095 16,927 11,997 13,133 0 0
8th divisor 10 3 4 1 3 1 1
8th allocation 11,846 16,095 12,695 11,997 13,133 0 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Ruth Davidson
2 Labour Kezia Dugdale
3 Green Alison Johnstone
4 Conservative Miles Briggs
5 Labour Neil Findlay
6 Green Andy Wightman
7 Conservative Gordon Lindhurst

Constituencies in Lothian region

Almond Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Angela Constance 🛋 18,768 ↑2064 66.28 % ↑11.94
Labour Neil Findlay 📃 🎢 6,692 ↓4470 23.63 % ↓12.68
Conservative Stephanie Smith 2,441 ↑555 8.62 % ↑2.48
Liberal Democrat Charles Dundas 💸 414 ↓242 1.46 % ↓0.67
SNP HOLD Majority: 12,076 Swing: ↑12.31%

Edinburgh Central

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Alison Dickie 8,864 ↑975 29.33 % ↑2.14
Green Alison Johnstone 📃 🎢 8,270 ↑3756 27.36 % ↑11.80
Conservative Ruth Davidson 🎢 5,530 ↑1257 18.30 % ↑3.57
Labour Sarah Boyack 📃 4,269 ↓2852 14.13 % ↓10.41
Liberal Democrat Hannah Bettsworth 3,290 ↓1927 10.89 % ↓7.09
SNP HOLD Majority: 594 Swing: ↓4.83%

Edinburgh Eastern

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ash Denham 16,351 ↑1799 58.57 % ↑11.21
Labour Kezia Dugdale 📃 🎢 7,385 ↓4934 26.46 % ↓13.63
Conservative Nick Cook 3,404 ↑774 12.19 % ↑3.63
Liberal Democrat Cos D'Inverno 💸 774 ↓453 2.77 % ↓1.22
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,966 Swing: ↑12.42%

Edinburgh Northern & Leith

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ben Macpherson 13,779 ↑1516 50.91 % ↑11.20
Labour Lesley Hinds 7,709 ↓5149 28.48 % ↓13.15
Conservative Iain McGill 3,790 ↑862 14.00 % ↑4.52
Liberal Democrat Martin Veart 1,789 ↓1047 6.61 % ↓2.57
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 6,070 Swing: ↑12.18%

Edinburgh Pentlands

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gordon MacDonald 🛋 12,581 ↑1384 41.27 % ↑4.01
Conservative Gordon Lindhurst 🎢 12,217 ↑2778 40.07 % ↑8.66
Labour Blair Heary 4,792 ↓3201 15.72 % ↓10.88
Liberal Democrat Emma Farthing-Sykes 💸 896 ↓524 2.94 % ↓1.79
SNP HOLD Majority: 364 Swing: ↓2.33%

Edinburgh Southern

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jim Eadie 🛋 11,176 ↑1229 37.12 % ↑7.69
Conservative Miles Briggs 🎢 8,151 ↑1853 27.07 % ↑8.43
Labour Daniel Johnston 5,548 ↓3706 18.43 % ↓8.95
Liberal Democrat Pramod Subbaraman 5,233 ↓3064 17.38 % ↓7.17
SNP HOLD Majority: 3,025 Swing: ↓0.37%

Edinburgh Western

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Toni Giugliano 13,444 ↑1479 44.63 % ↑8.86
Conservative Sandy Batho 6,532 ↑1485 21.69 % ↑6.60
Liberal Democrat Alex Cole-Hamilton 5,851 ↓3425 19.42 % ↓8.31
Labour Cat Headley 4,295 ↓2869 14.26 % ↓7.16
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,912 Swing: ↑1.13%

Linlithgow

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Fiona Hyslop 🛋 19,131 ↑2104 61.81 % ↑12.00
Labour Angela Boyd Moohan 7,755 ↓5181 25.06 % ↓12.78
Conservative Charles Kennedy 3,425 ↑779 11.06 % ↑3.32
Liberal Democrat Dan Farthing-Sykes 💸 640 ↓375 2.07 % ↓0.90
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,376 Swing: ↑12.39%

Midlothian North & Musselburgh

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Colin Beattie 🛋 15,819 ↑1740 59.60 % ↑12.38
Labour Bernard Harkins 6,644 ↓4439 25.03 % ↓12.14
Conservative Jeremy Balfour 3,289 ↑748 12.39 % ↑3.87
Liberal Democrat Jacquie Bell 💸 791 ↓463 2.98 % ↓1.23
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,175 Swing: ↑12.26%