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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Panelbase/Sunday Times, 17th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the North East region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Panelbase and published in the Sunday Times on 17th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑5.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓12.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑4.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓2.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑5.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑2.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓8.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑6.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓1.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↓0.91
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓2.43

Our forecast

North East: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 55.39 % 11.07 % 21.36 % 5.16 % 7.03 % 0.00 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 10
Votes 150,275 30,044 57,950 13,991 19,066 0 0
1st divisor 11 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 13,661 30,044 57,950 13,991 19,066 0 0
2nd divisor 11 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 13,661 30,044 28,975 13,991 19,066 0 0
3rd divisor 11 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 13,661 15,022 28,975 13,991 19,066 0 0
4th divisor 11 2 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 13,661 15,022 19,317 13,991 19,066 0 0
5th divisor 11 2 4 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 13,661 15,022 14,488 13,991 19,066 0 0
6th divisor 11 2 4 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 13,661 15,022 14,488 13,991 9,533 0 0
7th divisor 11 3 4 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 13,661 10,015 14,488 13,991 9,533 0 0
8th divisor 11 3 5 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 13,661 10,015 11,590 13,991 9,533 0 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Alex Johnstone
2 Labour Jenny Marra
3 Conservative Alexander Burnett
4 Conservative Ross Thomson
5 Green Maggie Chapman
6 Labour Lewis MacDonald
7 Conservative Peter Chapman

Constituencies in North East region

Aberdeen Central

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Kevin Stewart 🛋 11,301 ↑1243 50.33 % ↑10.34
Labour Lewis Macdonald 5,660 ↓3781 25.21 % ↓12.33
Conservative Tom Mason 4,012 ↑912 17.87 % ↑5.54
Liberal Democrat Liam Bruce 1,482 ↓867 6.60 % ↓2.74
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,641 Swing: ↑11.34%

Aberdeen Donside

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Mark McDonald 📃 16,618 ↑1828 66.47 % ↑11.20
Labour Greg Williams 4,565 ↓3050 18.26 % ↓10.20
Conservative Liam Kerr 2,803 ↑637 11.21 % ↑3.12
Liberal Democrat Isobel Davidson 💸 1,013 ↓593 4.05 % ↓1.95
SNP HOLD Majority: 12,053 Swing: ↑10.70%

Aberdeen South & North Kincardine

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Maureen Watt 🛋 13,424 ↑1477 53.27 % ↑11.57
Conservative Ross Thomson 🎢 5,252 ↑1194 20.84 % ↑6.68
Labour Alison Evison 3,372 ↓2252 13.38 % ↓6.25
Liberal Democrat John Waddell 3,150 ↓1844 12.50 % ↓4.93
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,172 Swing: ↑2.45%

Aberdeenshire East

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gillian Martin 21,947 ↑2414 69.78 % ↑5.28
Conservative Colin Clark 5,450 ↑1239 17.33 % ↑3.43
Liberal Democrat Christine Jardine 2,673 ↓1565 8.50 % ↓5.49
Labour Sarah Flavell 💸 1,381 ↓923 4.39 % ↓3.22
SNP HOLD Majority: 16,497 Swing: ↑0.93%

Aberdeenshire West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Dennis Robertson 🛋 13,692 ↑1506 48.91 % ↑6.36
Conservative Alexander Burnett 🎢 7,801 ↑1774 27.87 % ↑6.82
Liberal Democrat Mike Rumbles 5,092 ↓2982 18.19 % ↓10.01
Labour Sarah Duncan 1,408 ↓941 5.03 % ↓3.17
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,891 Swing: ↓0.23%

Angus North & Mearns

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Mari Evans 15,348 ↑1688 57.74 % ↑2.92
Conservative Alex Johnstone 📃 🎢 8,250 ↑1876 31.04 % ↑5.46
Labour John Ruddy 1,894 ↓1266 7.13 % ↓5.55
Liberal Democrat Euan Davidson 💸 1,089 ↓637 4.10 % ↓2.83
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,098 Swing: ↓1.27%

Angus South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Graeme Dey 🛋 18,162 ↑1998 64.50 % ↑6.03
Conservative Kirstene Hair 7,223 ↑1642 25.65 % ↑5.46
Labour Joanne McFadden 2,220 ↓1483 7.88 % ↓5.52
Liberal Democrat Clive Sneddon 💸 551 ↓323 1.96 % ↓1.20
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,939 Swing: ↑0.29%

Banffshire & Buchan Coast

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Stewart Stevenson 🛋 18,890 ↑2078 69.91 % ↑2.67
Conservative Peter Chapman 🎢 5,943 ↑1351 22.00 % ↑3.63
Labour Nathan Morrison 1,584 ↓1058 5.86 % ↓4.71
Liberal Democrat David Evans 💸 604 ↓354 2.24 % ↓1.59
SNP HOLD Majority: 12,947 Swing: ↓0.48%

Dundee City East

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Shona Robison 🛋 18,585 ↑2044 71.75 % ↑7.52
Labour Richard McCready 3,514 ↓2348 13.57 % ↓9.19
Conservative Bill Bowman 3,300 ↑750 12.74 % ↑2.84
Liberal Democrat Craig Duncan 💸 505 ↓295 1.95 % ↓1.16
SNP HOLD Majority: 15,071 Swing: ↑8.36%

Dundee City West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Joe Fitzpatrick 🛋 15,830 ↑1741 68.20 % ↑10.60
Labour Jenny Marra 📃 🎢 4,607 ↓3077 19.85 % ↓11.56
Conservative Nicola Ross 2,103 ↑478 9.06 % ↑2.42
Liberal Democrat Daniel Coleman 💸 670 ↓393 2.89 % ↓1.46
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,223 Swing: ↑11.08%