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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Panelbase/Sunday Times, 17th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the South region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Panelbase and published in the Sunday Times on 17th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑5.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓12.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑4.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓2.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑5.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑2.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓8.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑6.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓1.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↓0.91
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓2.43

Our forecast

South: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 43.39 % 17.19 % 29.73 % 4.13 % 5.56 % 0.00 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 5 4
Votes 122,004 48,321 83,589 11,619 15,636 0 0
1st divisor 6 1 5 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 20,334 48,321 16,718 11,619 15,636 0 0
2nd divisor 6 2 5 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 20,334 24,161 16,718 11,619 15,636 0 0
3rd divisor 6 3 5 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 20,334 16,107 16,718 11,619 15,636 0 0
4th divisor 7 3 5 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 17,429 16,107 16,718 11,619 15,636 0 0
5th divisor 8 3 5 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 15,251 16,107 16,718 11,619 15,636 0 0
6th divisor 8 3 6 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 15,251 16,107 13,932 11,619 15,636 0 0
7th divisor 8 4 6 1 1 1 1
7th allocation 15,251 12,080 13,932 11,619 15,636 0 0
8th divisor 8 4 6 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 15,251 12,080 13,932 11,619 7,818 0 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Iain Gray
2 Labour Claudia Beamish
3 SNP Joan McAlpine
4 SNP Emma Harper
5 Conservative Rachael Hamilton
6 Labour Colin Smyth
7 Green Sarah Beattie-Smith

Constituencies in South region

Ayr

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative John Scott 🛋 16,822 ↑3825 47.67 % ↑8.73
SNP Jennifer Dunn 13,353 ↑1469 37.84 % ↑2.23
Labour Brian McGinley 4,664 ↓3115 13.22 % ↓10.09
Liberal Democrat Robbie Simpson 💸 450 ↓263 1.27 % ↓0.87
Conservative HOLD Majority: 3,469 Swing: ↑3.25%

Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jeane Freeman 14,888 ↑1638 55.01 % ↑8.85
Labour Carol Mochan 6,396 ↓4273 23.64 % ↓13.53
Conservative Lee Lyons 5,384 ↑1224 19.90 % ↑5.41
Liberal Democrat Dawud Islam 💸 394 ↓230 1.45 % ↓0.72
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,492 Swing: ↑11.19%

Clydesdale

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Aileen Campbell 🛋 16,418 ↑1806 57.82 % ↑9.01
Labour Claudia Beamish 📃 🎢 6,233 ↓4163 21.95 % ↓12.78
Conservative Alex Allison 5,141 ↑1169 18.10 % ↑4.83
Liberal Democrat Fraser Grieve 💸 604 ↓353 2.13 % ↓1.07
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,185 Swing: ↑10.89%

Dumfriesshire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Oliver Mundell 12,254 ↑2786 40.66 % ↑10.98
SNP Joan McAlpine 📃 🎢 9,420 ↑1036 31.26 % ↑4.97
Labour Elaine Murray 🛋 7,568 ↓5056 25.11 % ↓14.47
Liberal Democrat Richard Brodie 💸 895 ↓524 2.97 % ↓1.48
Conservative GAIN from Labour Majority: 2,834 Swing: ↑3.01%

East Lothian

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP DJ Johnston-Smith 13,916 ↑1531 47.09 % ↑8.60
Labour Iain Gray 🛋 🎢 7,515 ↓5021 25.43 % ↓13.53
Conservative Rachael Hamilton 🎢 6,917 ↑1573 23.40 % ↑6.79
Liberal Democrat Ettie Spencer 💸 1,206 ↓706 4.08 % ↓1.86
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 6,401 Swing: ↑11.06%

Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative John Lamont 🛋 16,739 ↑3806 55.40 % ↑10.52
SNP Paul Wheelhouse 📃 8,538 ↑939 28.26 % ↑1.89
Liberal Democrat Jim Hume 📃 3,147 ↓1843 10.42 % ↓6.90
Labour Barrie Cunning 1,790 ↓1196 5.92 % ↓4.44
Conservative HOLD Majority: 8,201 Swing: ↑4.31%

Galloway & West Dumfries

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Finlay Carson 14,329 ↑3258 46.15 % ↑9.24
SNP Aileen McLeod 📃 11,471 ↑1262 36.94 % ↑2.91
Labour Fiona O'Donnell 4,769 ↓3185 15.36 % ↓11.16
Liberal Democrat Andrew Metcalf 💸 481 ↓282 1.55 % ↓0.99
Conservative HOLD Majority: 2,858 Swing: ↑3.17%

Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Willie Coffey 🛋 19,061 ↑2097 62.89 % ↑9.64
Labour Dave Meechan 6,577 ↓4394 21.70 % ↓12.74
Conservative Brian Whittle 4,283 ↑974 14.13 % ↑3.74
Liberal Democrat Rebecca Plenderleith 💸 387 ↓227 1.28 % ↓0.65
SNP HOLD Majority: 12,484 Swing: ↑11.19%

Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Christine Grahame 🛋 15,567 ↑1712 53.26 % ↑9.75
Liberal Democrat Kris Chapman 5,633 ↓3298 19.27 % ↓8.78
Conservative Michelle Ballantyne 4,844 ↑1101 16.57 % ↑4.81
Labour Fiona Dugdale 3,185 ↓2127 10.90 % ↓5.78
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,934 Swing: ↑9.27%