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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Panelbase/Sunday Times, 17th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the West region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Panelbase and published in the Sunday Times on 17th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑5.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓12.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑4.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓2.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑5.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑2.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓8.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑6.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓1.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↓0.91
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓2.43

Our forecast

West: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 47.02 % 23.78 % 20.78 % 2.64 % 5.79 % 0.00 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9 1
Votes 125,245 63,335 55,357 7,041 15,415 0 0
1st divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 12,525 63,335 27,679 7,041 15,415 0 0
2nd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 12,525 31,668 27,679 7,041 15,415 0 0
3rd divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 12,525 21,112 27,679 7,041 15,415 0 0
4th divisor 10 3 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 12,525 21,112 18,452 7,041 15,415 0 0
5th divisor 10 4 3 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 12,525 15,834 18,452 7,041 15,415 0 0
6th divisor 10 4 4 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 12,525 15,834 13,839 7,041 15,415 0 0
7th divisor 10 5 4 1 1 1 1
7th allocation 12,525 12,667 13,839 7,041 15,415 0 0
8th divisor 10 5 4 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 12,525 12,667 13,839 7,041 7,708 0 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Jackie Baillie
2 Labour Neil Bibby
3 Conservative Jamie Greene
4 Labour Mary Fee
5 Conservative Maurice Golden
6 Labour Ken Macintosh
7 Green Ross Greer

Constituencies in West region

Clydebank & Milngavie

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gil Paterson 🛋 13,795 ↑1517 54.28 % ↑11.00
Labour Gail Casey 6,933 ↓4631 27.28 % ↓13.48
Conservative Maurice Golden 🎢 3,570 ↑812 14.05 % ↑4.33
Liberal Democrat Frank Bowles 💸 1,116 ↓653 4.39 % ↓1.85
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,862 Swing: ↑12.24%

Cunninghame North

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Kenneth Gibson 🛋 17,460 ↑1921 60.90 % ↑8.29
Labour Johanna Baxter 5,649 ↓3773 19.70 % ↓12.20
Conservative Jamie Greene 🎢 5,218 ↑1186 18.20 % ↑4.55
Liberal Democrat Charity Pierce 💸 342 ↓201 1.19 % ↓0.65
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,811 Swing: ↑10.24%

Cunninghame South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ruth Maguire 12,352 ↑1359 60.84 % ↑11.00
Labour Joe Cullinane 5,183 ↓3462 25.53 % ↓13.67
Conservative William McClure 2,422 ↑551 11.93 % ↑3.45
Liberal Democrat Ruby Kirkwood 💸 345 ↓202 1.70 % ↓0.78
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,169 Swing: ↑12.34%

Dumbarton

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gail Robertson 12,273 ↑1350 49.61 % ↑11.29
Labour Jackie Baillie 🛋 🎢 7,531 ↓5031 30.44 % ↓13.62
Conservative Maurice Corry 4,394 ↑999 17.76 % ↑5.85
Liberal Democrat Aileen Morton 💸 541 ↓317 2.19 % ↓0.82
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,742 Swing: ↑12.45%

Eastwood

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Jackson Carlaw 📃 13,784 ↑3134 44.99 % ↑11.63
SNP Stewart Maxwell 📃 8,738 ↑961 28.52 % ↑4.16
Labour Ken Macintosh 🛋 🎢 7,591 ↓5071 24.77 % ↓14.89
Liberal Democrat John Duncan 💸 527 ↓308 1.72 % ↓0.90
Conservative GAIN from Labour Majority: 5,046 Swing: ↑3.74%

Greenock & Inverclyde

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Stuart McMillan 📃 13,344 ↑1468 54.26 % ↑12.16
Labour Siobhan McCready 7,426 ↓4961 30.20 % ↓13.71
Conservative Graeme Brooks 2,603 ↑592 10.58 % ↑3.45
Liberal Democrat John Watson 💸 1,220 ↓714 4.96 % ↓1.90
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 5,918 Swing: ↑12.94%

Paisley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP George Adam 🛋 12,262 ↑1349 54.10 % ↑11.45
Labour Neil Bibby 📃 🎢 6,394 ↓4271 28.21 % ↓13.47
Conservative Paul Masterton 2,885 ↑656 12.73 % ↑4.02
Liberal Democrat Eileen McCartin 💸 1,125 ↓658 4.96 % ↓2.01
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,868 Swing: ↑12.46%

Renfrewshire North & West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Derek Mackay 12,933 ↑1423 49.09 % ↑7.23
Conservative David Wilson 7,104 ↑1615 26.96 % ↑7.00
Labour Mary Fee 📃 🎢 5,963 ↓3983 22.63 % ↓13.54
Liberal Democrat Rod Ackland 💸 347 ↓203 1.32 % ↓0.68
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,829 Swing: ↑0.12%

Renfrewshire South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Tom Arthur 11,636 ↑1280 49.29 % ↑10.80
Labour Paul O'Kane 7,753 ↓5180 32.84 % ↓15.22
Conservative Ann Leblond 3,775 ↑858 15.99 % ↑5.15
Liberal Democrat Tristan Gray 💸 443 ↓259 1.88 % ↓0.73
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,883 Swing: ↑13.01%

Strathkelvin & Bearsden

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Rona Mackay 16,020 ↑1762 51.89 % ↑9.65
Labour Margaret McCarthy 7,468 ↓4988 24.19 % ↓12.71
Conservative Andrew Polson 5,744 ↑1306 18.61 % ↑5.46
Liberal Democrat Katy Gordon 1,640 ↓960 5.31 % ↓2.39
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,552 Swing: ↑11.18%