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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Panelbase/Sunday Times, 1st May 2016

These are our MSP forecasts for the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Panelbase and published in the Sunday Times on 1st May.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑3.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓8.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓0.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓4.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑6.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓1.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑2.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓5.43

Our forecast

Seats Total Constituencies Regional seats
2011 Forecast Change 2011 Forecast Change 2011 Forecast Change
SNP 69 69 ↔ 53 67 ↑14 16 2 ↓14
Labour 37 30 ↓7 15 — ↓15 22 30 ↑8
Conservative 15 22 ↑7 3 5 ↑2 12 17 ↑5
Green 2 6 ↑4 — — ↔ 2 6 ↑4
UKIP — 1 ↑1 — — ↔ — 1 ↑1
Lib Dem 5 1 ↓4 2 1 ↓1 3 — ↓3
Independent 1 — ↓1 — — ↔ 1 — ↓1
Regions Constituencies
Central C                  
R              
Glasgow C                  
R              
Highlands and Islands C                
R              
Lothian C                  
R              
Mid Scotland and Fife C                  
R              
North East C                    
R              
South C                  
R              
West C                    
R              

Most marginal constituencies

Constituency Winner Margin Outcome
Orkney Islands SNP 3 GAIN over Liberal Democrat
Edinburgh Pentlands SNP 549 HOLD over Conservative
Edinburgh Central SNP 1,280 HOLD over Green
Glasgow Provan SNP 1,307 GAIN over Labour
Coatbridge & Chryston SNP 1,324 GAIN over Labour
Renfrewshire South SNP 1,794 GAIN over Labour
Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn SNP 2,102 GAIN over Labour
Shetland Islands Liberal Democrat 2,153 HOLD over SNP
Dumfriesshire Conservative 2,411 GAIN over Labour
Rutherglen SNP 2,498 GAIN over Labour

Narrowest regional wins

Region 7th place Next party Allocation shortfall Equivalent votes
Central Labour Conservative 62 126
Highlands and Islands Conservative SNP 55 438
North East Conservative Lib Dem 497 497
Lothian Green Conservative 310 930
South Labour SNP 488 3,902
West Labour Conservative 1,643 6,571
Mid Scotland and Fife Green Conservative 3,478 13,911
Glasgow Labour Labour Same party would win the next seat