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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Panelbase/Sunday Times, 1st May 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Central region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Panelbase and published in the Sunday Times on 1st May.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑3.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓8.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓0.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓4.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑6.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓1.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑2.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓5.43

Our forecast

Central: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 50.14 % 31.97 % 10.60 % 1.18 % 4.18 % 1.93 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 108,210 68,984 22,869 2,554 9,031 4,159 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 10,821 68,984 22,869 2,554 9,031 4,159 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 10,821 34,492 22,869 2,554 9,031 4,159 0
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 10,821 22,995 22,869 2,554 9,031 4,159 0
4th divisor 10 4 1 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 10,821 17,246 22,869 2,554 9,031 4,159 0
5th divisor 10 4 2 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 10,821 17,246 11,435 2,554 9,031 4,159 0
6th divisor 10 5 2 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 10,821 13,797 11,435 2,554 9,031 4,159 0
7th divisor 10 6 2 1 1 1 1
7th allocation 10,821 11,497 11,435 2,554 9,031 4,159 0
8th divisor 10 7 2 1 1 1 1
8th allocation 10,821 9,855 11,435 2,554 9,031 4,159 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Richard Leonard
2 Labour Monica Lennon
3 Labour Mark Griffin
4 Conservative Margaret Mitchell
5 Labour Elaine Smith
6 Labour Craig Martin
7 Labour Margaret McCulloch

Constituencies in Central region

Airdrie & Shotts

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Alex Neil 🛋 12,937 ↑953 58.04 % ↑7.89
Labour Richard Leonard 🎢 7,245 ↓2738 32.50 % ↓9.28
Conservative Eric Holford 1,706 ↑310 7.66 % ↑1.82
Liberal Democrat Louise Young 💸 402 ↓129 1.80 % ↓0.42
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,692 Swing: ↑8.58%

Coatbridge & Chryston

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Fulton MacGregor 9,980 ↑735 46.95 % ↑7.24
Labour Elaine Smith 🛋 🎢 8,656 ↓3272 40.72 % ↓10.52
Conservative Robyn Halbert 1,599 ↑291 7.52 % ↑1.90
Green John Wilson 💸 📃 795 ↑299 3.74 % ↑1.61
Liberal Democrat Jenni Lang 💸 229 ↓73 1.08 % ↓0.22
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 1,324 Swing: ↑8.88%

Cumbernauld & Kilsyth

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jamie Hepburn 🛋 14,676 ↑1081 61.86 % ↑8.03
Labour Mark Griffin 📃 🎢 7,356 ↓2780 31.01 % ↓9.13
Conservative Anthony Newman 1,413 ↑257 5.96 % ↑1.38
Liberal Democrat Irene Lang 💸 278 ↓89 1.17 % ↓0.28
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,320 Swing: ↑8.58%

East Kilbride

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Linda Fabiani 🛋 15,501 ↑1142 56.11 % ↑8.10
Labour LizAnne Handibode 9,006 ↓3404 32.60 % ↓8.89
Conservative Graham Simpson 2,763 ↑503 10.00 % ↑2.44
Liberal Democrat Paul McGarry 💸 354 ↓114 1.28 % ↓0.28
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,495 Swing: ↑8.50%

Falkirk East

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Angus MacDonald 🛋 15,439 ↑1137 57.82 % ↑7.05
Labour Craig Martin 🎢 7,814 ↓2953 29.26 % ↓8.96
Conservative Callum Laidlaw 2,899 ↑527 10.86 % ↑2.44
Liberal Democrat Austin Reid 💸 550 ↓177 2.06 % ↓0.52
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,625 Swing: ↑8.01%

Falkirk West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Michael Matheson 🛋 16,848 ↑1241 62.30 % ↑6.95
Labour Mandy Telford 7,157 ↓2705 26.47 % ↓8.50
Conservative Alison Harris 2,550 ↑464 9.43 % ↑2.03
Liberal Democrat Gillian Cole-Hamilton 💸 487 ↓157 1.80 % ↓0.48
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,691 Swing: ↑7.72%

Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Christina McKelvie 13,172 ↑970 54.89 % ↑6.76
Labour Margaret McCulloch 📃 🎢 7,249 ↓2740 30.21 % ↓9.19
Conservative Margaret Mitchell 📃 🎢 3,113 ↑566 12.97 % ↑2.92
Liberal Democrat Eileen Baxendale 💸 466 ↓150 1.94 % ↓0.49
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,923 Swing: ↑7.97%

Motherwell & Wishaw

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Clare Adamson 10,931 ↑805 51.74 % ↑10.33
Labour John Pentland 🛋 7,775 ↓2938 36.80 % ↓7.01
Conservative Megan Gallacher 2,143 ↑390 10.14 % ↑2.97
Liberal Democrat Yvonne Finlayson 💸 278 ↓89 1.31 % ↓0.19
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,156 Swing: ↑8.67%

Uddingston & Bellshill

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Richard Lyle 📃 11,677 ↑860 50.70 % ↑7.42
Labour Michael McMahon 🛋 8,368 ↓3163 36.33 % ↓9.80
Conservative Andrew Morrison 2,588 ↑471 11.23 % ↑2.76
Liberal Democrat Kaitey Blair 💸 401 ↓129 1.74 % ↓0.38
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,309 Swing: ↑8.61%