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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Panelbase/Sunday Times, 1st May 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Glasgow region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Panelbase and published in the Sunday Times on 1st May.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑3.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓8.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓0.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓4.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑6.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓1.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑2.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓5.43

Our forecast

Glasgow: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 43.37 % 31.90 % 10.24 % 2.13 % 10.42 % 1.93 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 83,070 61,097 19,607 4,088 19,964 3,698 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 8,307 61,097 19,607 4,088 19,964 3,698 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 8,307 30,549 19,607 4,088 19,964 3,698 0
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 8,307 20,366 19,607 4,088 19,964 3,698 0
4th divisor 10 4 1 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 8,307 15,274 19,607 4,088 19,964 3,698 0
5th divisor 10 4 1 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 8,307 15,274 19,607 4,088 9,982 3,698 0
6th divisor 10 4 2 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 8,307 15,274 9,804 4,088 9,982 3,698 0
7th divisor 10 5 2 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 8,307 12,219 9,804 4,088 9,982 3,698 0
8th divisor 10 6 2 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 8,307 10,183 9,804 4,088 9,982 3,698 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Anas Sarwar
2 Labour Johann Lamont
3 Labour James Kelly
4 Green Patrick Harvie
5 Conservative Adam Tomkins
6 Labour Pauline McNeill
7 Labour Bill Butler

Constituencies in Glasgow region

Glasgow Anniesland

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Bill Kidd 🛋 11,150 ↑821 51.02 % ↑7.83
Labour Bill Butler 🎢 7,491 ↓2831 34.27 % ↓8.89
Conservative Adam Tomkins 🎢 2,458 ↑447 11.25 % ↑2.84
Liberal Democrat James Spiers 💸 757 ↓243 3.46 % ↓0.72
SNP HOLD Majority: 3,659 Swing: ↑8.36%

Glasgow Cathcart

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP James Dornan 🛋 12,866 ↑948 53.27 % ↑7.82
Labour Soryia Siddique 7,494 ↓2832 31.03 % ↓8.35
Conservative Kyle Thornton 2,946 ↑536 12.20 % ↑3.01
Liberal Democrat Margot Clark 💸 846 ↓272 3.50 % ↓0.76
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,372 Swing: ↑8.09%

Glasgow Kelvin

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Sandra White 🛋 9,800 ↑722 38.38 % ↑0.78
Green Patrick Harvie 📃 🎢 7,103 ↑2672 27.82 % ↑9.47
Labour Michael Shanks 5,570 ↓2105 21.81 % ↓9.98
Conservative Sheila Mechan 2,157 ↑392 8.45 % ↑1.14
Liberal Democrat Carole Ford 💸 904 ↓290 3.54 % ↓1.41
SNP HOLD Majority: 2,697 Swing: ↓4.35%

Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Bob Doris 📃 9,275 ↑683 49.94 % ↑8.09
Labour Patricia Ferguson 🛋 7,173 ↓2711 38.62 % ↓9.52
Conservative John Anderson 1,494 ↑272 8.04 % ↑2.09
Liberal Democrat James Harrison 💸 630 ↓203 3.39 % ↓0.67
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 2,102 Swing: ↑8.80%

Glasgow Pollok

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Humza Yousaf 📃 11,067 ↑815 52.91 % ↑8.17
Labour Johann Lamont 🛋 🎢 7,892 ↓2983 37.73 % ↓9.73
Conservative Thomas Haddow 1,587 ↑289 7.59 % ↑1.93
Liberal Democrat Isabel Nelson 💸 371 ↓119 1.77 % ↓0.37
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,175 Swing: ↑8.95%

Glasgow Provan

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ivan McKee 8,591 ↑633 50.13 % ↑8.65
Labour Paul Martin 🛋 7,284 ↓2753 42.50 % ↓9.82
Conservative Annie Wells 950 ↑173 5.54 % ↑1.49
Liberal Democrat Thomas Coleman 💸 313 ↓100 1.82 % ↓0.33
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 1,307 Swing: ↑9.23%

Glasgow Shettleston

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP John Mason 🛋 10,933 ↑805 55.89 % ↑8.13
Labour Thomas Rannachan 6,925 ↓2617 35.40 % ↓9.60
Conservative Thomas Kerr 1,422 ↑259 7.27 % ↑1.79
Liberal Democrat Giovanni Caccavello 💸 281 ↓90 1.44 % ↓0.31
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,008 Swing: ↑8.87%

Glasgow Southside

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Nicola Sturgeon 🛋 13,285 ↑979 61.39 % ↑6.96
Labour Fariha Thomas 5,775 ↓2182 26.68 % ↓8.52
Conservative Graham Hutchison 2,118 ↑385 9.79 % ↑2.12
Liberal Democrat Kevin Lewsey 💸 463 ↓149 2.14 % ↓0.57
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,510 Swing: ↑7.74%

Rutherglen

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Clare Haughey 11,562 ↑852 48.02 % ↑8.50
Labour James Kelly 🛋 🎢 9,064 ↓3425 37.64 % ↓8.44
Conservative Taylor Muir 2,562 ↑466 10.64 % ↑2.91
Liberal Democrat Robert Brown 💸 889 ↓285 3.69 % ↓0.64
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 2,498 Swing: ↑8.47%