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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Panelbase/Sunday Times, 1st May 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Highlands and Islands region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Panelbase and published in the Sunday Times on 1st May.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑3.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓8.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓0.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓4.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑6.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓1.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑2.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓5.43

Our forecast

Highlands and Islands: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 46.95 % 11.96 % 17.70 % 9.23 % 8.03 % 6.13 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 7 1
Votes 85,042 21,654 32,055 16,724 14,549 11,104 0
1st divisor 8 1 1 2 1 1 1
1st allocation 10,630 21,654 32,055 8,362 14,549 11,104 0
2nd divisor 8 1 2 2 1 1 1
2nd allocation 10,630 21,654 16,028 8,362 14,549 11,104 0
3rd divisor 8 2 2 2 1 1 1
3rd allocation 10,630 10,827 16,028 8,362 14,549 11,104 0
4th divisor 8 2 3 2 1 1 1
4th allocation 10,630 10,827 10,685 8,362 14,549 11,104 0
5th divisor 8 2 3 2 2 1 1
5th allocation 10,630 10,827 10,685 8,362 7,275 11,104 0
6th divisor 8 2 3 2 2 2 1
6th allocation 10,630 10,827 10,685 8,362 7,275 5,552 0
7th divisor 8 3 3 2 2 2 1
7th allocation 10,630 7,218 10,685 8,362 7,275 5,552 0
8th divisor 8 3 4 2 2 2 1
8th allocation 10,630 7,218 8,014 8,362 7,275 5,552 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Douglas Ross
2 Labour Rhoda Grant
3 Conservative Edward Mountain
4 Green John Finnie
5 UKIP David Coburn
6 Labour David Stewart
7 Conservative Donald Cameron

Constituencies in Highlands and Islands region

Argyll & Bute

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Michael Russell 🛋 14,455 ↑1065 56.14 % ↑5.57
Conservative Donald Cameron 🎢 5,925 ↑1078 23.01 % ↑4.70
Labour Mick Rice 2,933 ↓1108 11.39 % ↓3.87
Liberal Democrat Alan Reid 2,437 ↓783 9.46 % ↓2.70
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,530 Swing: ↑0.44%

Caithness, Sutherland & Ross

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gail Ross 14,944 ↑1101 54.72 % ↑6.32
Liberal Democrat Jamie Stone 4,833 ↓1552 17.70 % ↓4.63
Labour Leah Franchetti 3,946 ↓1492 14.45 % ↓4.56
Conservative Struan Mackie 3,586 ↑652 13.13 % ↑2.87
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,111 Swing: ↑5.47%

Inverness & Nairn

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Fergus Ewing 🛋 18,212 ↑1342 58.99 % ↑7.45
Labour David Stewart 📃 🎢 5,171 ↓1954 16.75 % ↓5.02
Conservative Edward Mountain 🎢 4,641 ↑844 15.03 % ↑3.43
Liberal Democrat Carolyn Caddick 2,848 ↓915 9.23 % ↓2.27
SNP HOLD Majority: 13,041 Swing: ↑6.23%

Moray

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Richard Lochhead 🛋 18,154 ↑1337 62.74 % ↑3.93
Conservative Douglas Ross 🎢 7,179 ↑1306 24.81 % ↑4.27
Labour Sean Morton 2,598 ↓982 8.98 % ↓3.54
Liberal Democrat Jamie Paterson 💸 1,004 ↓323 3.47 % ↓1.17
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,975 Swing: ↓0.17%

Na h-Eileanan an Iar

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Alasdair Allan 🛋 9,172 ↑676 72.01 % ↑6.71
Labour Rhoda Grant 📃 🎢 2,703 ↓1021 21.22 % ↓7.40
Conservative Ranald Fraser 688 ↑125 5.40 % ↑1.07
Liberal Democrat Ken MacLeod 💸 173 ↓55 1.35 % ↓0.40
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,469 Swing: ↑7.05%

Orkney Islands

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Donna Heddle 2,207 ↑163 39.53 % ↑14.46
Liberal Democrat Liam McArthur 🛋 2,204 ↓708 39.48 % ↑3.76
Conservative Jamie Halcro Johnston 839 ↑153 15.02 % ↑6.60
Labour Gerry McGarvey 332 ↓126 5.95 % ↑0.33
SNP GAIN from Liberal Democrat Majority: 3 Swing: ↑5.35%

Shetland Islands

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Liberal Democrat Tavish Scott 🛋 3,377 ↓1085 61.92 % ↑14.41
SNP Danus Skene 1,224 ↑90 22.45 % ↑10.37
Labour Robina Barton 450 ↓170 8.25 % ↑1.65
Conservative Cameron Smith 403 ↑73 7.40 % ↑3.89
Liberal Democrat HOLD Majority: 2,153 Swing: ↑2.02%

Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Kate Forbes 15,909 ↑1172 53.51 % ↑7.33
Liberal Democrat Angela MacLean 7,373 ↓2369 24.80 % ↓5.72
Conservative Robbie Munro 3,464 ↑630 11.65 % ↑2.77
Labour Linda Stewart 2,984 ↓1128 10.04 % ↓2.84
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,536 Swing: ↑6.53%