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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Panelbase/Sunday Times, 1st May 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Lothian region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Panelbase and published in the Sunday Times on 1st May.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑3.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓8.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓0.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓4.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑6.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓1.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑2.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓5.43

Our forecast

Lothian: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 40.60 % 21.60 % 18.59 % 4.39 % 12.62 % 2.20 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9 — — — — — —
Votes 110,901 59,016 50,780 11,997 34,473 6,000 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,090 59,016 50,780 11,997 34,473 6,000 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,090 29,508 50,780 11,997 34,473 6,000 0
3rd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,090 29,508 25,390 11,997 34,473 6,000 0
4th divisor 10 2 2 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 11,090 29,508 25,390 11,997 17,237 6,000 0
5th divisor 10 3 2 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 11,090 19,672 25,390 11,997 17,237 6,000 0
6th divisor 10 3 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 11,090 19,672 16,927 11,997 17,237 6,000 0
7th divisor 10 4 3 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 11,090 14,754 16,927 11,997 17,237 6,000 0
8th divisor 10 4 3 1 3 1 1
8th allocation 11,090 14,754 16,927 11,997 11,491 6,000 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Kezia Dugdale
2 Conservative Ruth Davidson
3 Green Alison Johnstone
4 Labour Neil Findlay
5 Conservative Miles Briggs
6 Labour Sarah Boyack
7 Green Andy Wightman

Constituencies in Lothian region

Almond Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Angela Constance 🛋 18,032 ↑1328 62.32 % ↑7.98
Labour Neil Findlay 📃 🎢 8,101 ↓3061 28.00 % ↓8.31
Conservative Stephanie Smith 2,305 ↑419 7.97 % ↑1.83
Liberal Democrat Charles Dundas 💸 497 ↓159 1.72 % ↓0.41
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,931 Swing: ↑8.14%

Edinburgh Central

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Alison Dickie 8,516 ↑627 28.30 % ↑1.11
Green Alison Johnstone 📃 🎢 7,236 ↑2722 24.05 % ↑8.49
Conservative Ruth Davidson 🎢 5,223 ↑950 17.36 % ↑2.63
Labour Sarah Boyack 📃 🎢 5,168 ↓1953 17.17 % ↓7.37
Liberal Democrat Hannah Bettsworth 3,949 ↓1268 13.12 % ↓4.86
SNP HOLD Majority: 1,280 Swing: ↓3.69%

Edinburgh Eastern

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ash Denham 15,709 ↑1157 54.56 % ↑7.20
Labour Kezia Dugdale 📃 🎢 8,940 ↓3379 31.05 % ↓9.04
Conservative Nick Cook 3,215 ↑585 11.17 % ↑2.61
Liberal Democrat Cos D'Inverno 💸 929 ↓298 3.23 % ↓0.76
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,769 Swing: ↑8.12%

Edinburgh Northern & Leith

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ben Macpherson 13,238 ↑975 46.79 % ↑7.08
Labour Lesley Hinds 9,331 ↓3527 32.98 % ↓8.65
Conservative Iain McGill 3,579 ↑651 12.65 % ↑3.17
Liberal Democrat Martin Veart 2,146 ↓690 7.59 % ↓1.59
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,907 Swing: ↑7.87%

Edinburgh Pentlands

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gordon MacDonald 🛋 12,087 ↑890 39.63 % ↑2.37
Conservative Gordon Lindhurst 11,538 ↑2099 37.83 % ↑6.42
Labour Blair Heary 5,801 ↓2192 19.02 % ↓7.58
Liberal Democrat Emma Farthing-Sykes 💸 1,075 ↓345 3.52 % ↓1.21
SNP HOLD Majority: 549 Swing: ↓2.02%

Edinburgh Southern

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jim Eadie 🛋 10,738 ↑791 34.16 % ↑4.73
Conservative Miles Briggs 🎢 7,698 ↑1400 24.49 % ↑5.85
Labour Daniel Johnston 6,716 ↓2538 21.37 % ↓6.01
Liberal Democrat Pramod Subbaraman 6,280 ↓2017 19.98 % ↓4.57
SNP HOLD Majority: 3,040 Swing: ↓0.56%

Edinburgh Western

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Toni Giugliano 12,917 ↑952 41.26 % ↑5.49
Liberal Democrat Alex Cole-Hamilton 7,021 ↓2255 22.43 % ↓5.30
Conservative Sandy Batho 6,169 ↑1122 19.71 % ↑4.62
Labour Cat Headley 5,199 ↓1965 16.61 % ↓4.81
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,896 Swing: ↑5.39%

Linlithgow

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Fiona Hyslop 🛋 18,381 ↑1354 57.86 % ↑8.05
Labour Angela Boyd Moohan 9,388 ↓3548 29.55 % ↓8.29
Conservative Charles Kennedy 3,234 ↑588 10.18 % ↑2.44
Liberal Democrat Dan Farthing-Sykes 💸 768 ↓247 2.42 % ↓0.55
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,993 Swing: ↑8.17%

Midlothian North & Musselburgh

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Colin Beattie 🛋 15,199 ↑1120 55.68 % ↑8.46
Labour Bernard Harkins 8,043 ↓3040 29.47 % ↓7.70
Conservative Jeremy Balfour 3,106 ↑565 11.38 % ↑2.86
Liberal Democrat Jacquie Bell 💸 949 ↓305 3.48 % ↓0.73
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,156 Swing: ↑8.08%