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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Panelbase/Sunday Times, 1st May 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Mid Scotland and Fife region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Panelbase and published in the Sunday Times on 1st May.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑3.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓8.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓0.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓4.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑6.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓1.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑2.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓5.43

Our forecast

Mid Scotland and Fife: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 43.98 % 20.38 % 21.14 % 4.38 % 6.60 % 3.52 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 116,636 54,063 56,069 11,624 17,495 9,345 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,664 54,063 56,069 11,624 17,495 9,345 0
2nd divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,664 54,063 28,035 11,624 17,495 9,345 0
3rd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,664 27,032 28,035 11,624 17,495 9,345 0
4th divisor 10 2 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,664 27,032 18,690 11,624 17,495 9,345 0
5th divisor 10 3 3 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 11,664 18,021 18,690 11,624 17,495 9,345 0
6th divisor 10 3 4 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 11,664 18,021 14,017 11,624 17,495 9,345 0
7th divisor 10 4 4 1 1 1 1
7th allocation 11,664 13,516 14,017 11,624 17,495 9,345 0
8th divisor 10 4 4 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 11,664 13,516 14,017 11,624 8,748 9,345 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Murdo Fraser
2 Labour Alex Rowley
3 Conservative Liz Smith
4 Labour Claire Baker
5 Conservative Dean Lockhart
6 Labour Thomas Docherty
7 Green Mark Ruskell

Constituencies in Mid Scotland and Fife region

Clackmannanshire & Dunblane

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Keith Brown 🛋 14,307 ↑1054 54.29 % ↑5.95
Labour Craig Miller 6,999 ↓2645 26.56 % ↓8.62
Conservative Alexander Stewart 4,279 ↑778 16.24 % ↑3.47
Liberal Democrat Christopher McKinlay 💸 770 ↓248 2.92 % ↓0.79
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,308 Swing: ↑7.29%

Cowdenbeath

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Annabelle Ewing 📃 11,528 ↑849 49.85 % ↑8.25
Labour Alex Rowley 🎢 8,655 ↓3271 37.42 % ↓9.04
Conservative Dave Dempsey 2,190 ↑398 9.47 % ↑2.49
Liberal Democrat Bryn Jones 💸 755 ↓242 3.26 % ↓0.62
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 2,873 Swing: ↑8.64%

Dunfermline

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Shirley-Anne Somerville 11,886 ↑876 45.06 % ↑7.48
Labour Cara Hilton 7,562 ↓2858 28.67 % ↓6.89
Liberal Democrat James Calder 4,372 ↓1404 16.57 % ↓3.14
Conservative James Reekie 2,558 ↑465 9.70 % ↑2.56
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,324 Swing: ↑7.19%

Kirkcaldy

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP David Torrance 🛋 13,579 ↑1000 52.94 % ↑7.70
Labour Claire Baker 🎢 8,997 ↓3400 35.08 % ↓9.51
Conservative Martin Laidlaw 2,453 ↑446 9.56 % ↑2.34
Liberal Democrat Lauren Jones 💸 621 ↓199 2.42 % ↓0.53
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,582 Swing: ↑8.61%

Mid Fife & Glenrothes

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jenny Gilruth 14,855 ↑1094 61.06 % ↑8.76
Labour Kay Morrison 6,947 ↓2626 28.56 % ↓7.82
Conservative Alex Stewart-Clark 2,049 ↑373 8.42 % ↑2.05
Liberal Democrat Jane-Ann Liston 💸 477 ↓153 1.96 % ↓0.43
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,908 Swing: ↑8.29%

North East Fife

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Rod Campbell 11,906 ↑877 42.86 % ↑5.70
Conservative Huw Bell 6,867 ↑1249 24.72 % ↑5.79
Liberal Democrat Willie Rennie 📃 6,386 ↓2051 22.99 % ↓5.44
Labour Rosalind Garton 2,622 ↓991 9.44 % ↓2.73
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,039 Swing: ↓0.04%

Perthshire North

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP John Swinney 🛋 19,668 ↑1449 61.22 % ↑0.39
Conservative Murdo Fraser 📃 🎢 9,615 ↑1749 29.93 % ↑3.67
Labour Anna McEwan 1,939 ↓733 6.04 % ↓2.88
Liberal Democrat Peter Barrett 💸 905 ↓291 2.82 % ↓1.17
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,053 Swing: ↓1.64%

Perthshire South & Kinross-shire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Roseanna Cunningham 🛋 17,351 ↑1278 52.85 % ↑1.36
Conservative Liz Smith 🎢 10,888 ↑1981 33.16 % ↑4.63
Labour Scott Nicholson 2,888 ↓1092 8.80 % ↓3.95
Liberal Democrat Willie Robertson 1,707 ↓549 5.20 % ↓2.03
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,463 Swing: ↓1.64%

Stirling

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Bruce Crawford 🛋 16,040 ↑1182 54.70 % ↑5.83
Labour Rebecca Bell 6,668 ↓2520 22.74 % ↓7.48
Conservative Dean Lockhart 🎢 5,635 ↑1025 19.22 % ↑4.06
Liberal Democrat Elisabeth Wilson 💸 981 ↓315 3.35 % ↓0.91
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,372 Swing: ↑6.66%