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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Panelbase/Sunday Times, 1st May 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the South region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Panelbase and published in the Sunday Times on 1st May.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑3.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓8.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓0.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓4.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑6.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓1.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑2.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓5.43

Our forecast

South: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 39.00 % 20.17 % 28.54 % 3.97 % 4.67 % 3.65 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 5 4
Votes 114,216 59,059 83,589 11,619 13,682 10,679 0
1st divisor 6 1 5 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 19,036 59,059 16,718 11,619 13,682 10,679 0
2nd divisor 6 2 5 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 19,036 29,530 16,718 11,619 13,682 10,679 0
3rd divisor 6 3 5 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 19,036 19,686 16,718 11,619 13,682 10,679 0
4th divisor 6 4 5 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 19,036 14,765 16,718 11,619 13,682 10,679 0
5th divisor 7 4 5 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 16,317 14,765 16,718 11,619 13,682 10,679 0
6th divisor 7 4 6 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 16,317 14,765 13,932 11,619 13,682 10,679 0
7th divisor 8 4 6 1 1 1 1
7th allocation 14,277 14,765 13,932 11,619 13,682 10,679 0
8th divisor 8 5 6 1 1 1 1
8th allocation 14,277 11,812 13,932 11,619 13,682 10,679 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Iain Gray
2 Labour Claudia Beamish
3 Labour Colin Smyth
4 SNP Joan McAlpine
5 Conservative Rachael Hamilton
6 SNP Emma Harper
7 Labour Carol Mochan

Constituencies in South region

Ayr

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative John Scott 🛋 15,887 ↑2890 45.52 % ↑6.58
SNP Jennifer Dunn 12,829 ↑945 36.76 % ↑1.15
Labour Brian McGinley 5,645 ↓2134 16.18 % ↓7.13
Liberal Democrat Robbie Simpson 💸 540 ↓173 1.55 % ↓0.59
Conservative HOLD Majority: 3,058 Swing: ↑2.71%

Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jeane Freeman 14,304 ↑1054 51.82 % ↑5.66
Labour Carol Mochan 🎢 7,743 ↓2926 28.05 % ↓9.12
Conservative Lee Lyons 5,085 ↑925 18.42 % ↑3.93
Liberal Democrat Dawud Islam 💸 472 ↓152 1.71 % ↓0.46
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,561 Swing: ↑7.39%

Clydesdale

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Aileen Campbell 🛋 15,774 ↑1162 54.59 % ↑5.78
Labour Claudia Beamish 📃 🎢 7,545 ↓2851 26.11 % ↓8.62
Conservative Alex Allison 4,855 ↑883 16.80 % ↑3.53
Liberal Democrat Fraser Grieve 💸 724 ↓233 2.51 % ↓0.69
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,229 Swing: ↑7.20%

Dumfriesshire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Oliver Mundell 11,573 ↑2105 37.50 % ↑7.82
Labour Elaine Murray 🛋 9,162 ↓3462 29.69 % ↓9.89
SNP Joan McAlpine 📃 🎢 9,051 ↑667 29.33 % ↑3.04
Liberal Democrat Richard Brodie 💸 1,074 ↓345 3.48 % ↓0.97
Conservative GAIN from Labour Majority: 2,411 Swing: ↑8.86%

East Lothian

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP DJ Johnston-Smith 13,370 ↑985 43.91 % ↑5.42
Labour Iain Gray 🛋 🎢 9,098 ↓3438 29.88 % ↓9.08
Conservative Rachael Hamilton 🎢 6,532 ↑1188 21.45 % ↑4.84
Liberal Democrat Ettie Spencer 💸 1,447 ↓465 4.75 % ↓1.19
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,272 Swing: ↑7.25%

Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative John Lamont 🛋 15,809 ↑2876 52.77 % ↑7.89
SNP Paul Wheelhouse 📃 8,203 ↑604 27.38 % ↑1.01
Liberal Democrat Jim Hume 📃 3,777 ↓1213 12.61 % ↓4.71
Labour Barrie Cunning 2,167 ↓819 7.23 % ↓3.13
Conservative HOLD Majority: 7,606 Swing: ↑3.44%

Galloway & West Dumfries

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Finlay Carson 13,533 ↑2462 43.79 % ↑6.88
SNP Aileen McLeod 📃 11,021 ↑812 35.66 % ↑1.63
Labour Fiona O'Donnell 5,772 ↓2182 18.68 % ↓7.84
Liberal Democrat Andrew Metcalf 💸 577 ↓186 1.87 % ↓0.67
Conservative HOLD Majority: 2,512 Swing: ↑2.62%

Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Willie Coffey 🛋 18,313 ↑1349 59.49 % ↑6.24
Labour Dave Meechan 7,962 ↓3009 25.86 % ↓8.58
Conservative Brian Whittle 4,045 ↑736 13.14 % ↑2.75
Liberal Democrat Rebecca Plenderleith 💸 465 ↓149 1.51 % ↓0.42
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,351 Swing: ↑7.41%

Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Christine Grahame 🛋 14,957 ↑1102 49.61 % ↑6.10
Liberal Democrat Kris Chapman 6,760 ↓2171 22.42 % ↓5.63
Conservative Michelle Ballantyne 4,575 ↑832 15.18 % ↑3.42
Labour Fiona Dugdale 3,855 ↓1457 12.79 % ↓3.89
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,197 Swing: ↑5.87%