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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Panelbase/Sunday Times, 1st May 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the West region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Panelbase and published in the Sunday Times on 1st May.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑3.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓8.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓0.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓4.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑6.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓1.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑2.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓5.43

Our forecast

West: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 42.31 % 27.93 % 19.97 % 2.54 % 4.87 % 2.38 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9 1
Votes 117,251 77,410 55,357 7,041 13,488 6,586 0
1st divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,725 77,410 27,679 7,041 13,488 6,586 0
2nd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,725 38,705 27,679 7,041 13,488 6,586 0
3rd divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,725 25,803 27,679 7,041 13,488 6,586 0
4th divisor 10 3 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,725 25,803 18,452 7,041 13,488 6,586 0
5th divisor 10 4 3 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 11,725 19,353 18,452 7,041 13,488 6,586 0
6th divisor 10 5 3 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 11,725 15,482 18,452 7,041 13,488 6,586 0
7th divisor 10 5 4 1 1 1 1
7th allocation 11,725 15,482 13,839 7,041 13,488 6,586 0
8th divisor 10 6 4 1 1 1 1
8th allocation 11,725 12,902 13,839 7,041 13,488 6,586 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Jackie Baillie
2 Labour Neil Bibby
3 Conservative Jamie Greene
4 Labour Mary Fee
5 Labour Ken Macintosh
6 Conservative Maurice Golden
7 Labour Johanna Baxter

Constituencies in West region

Clydebank & Milngavie

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gil Paterson 🛋 13,254 ↑976 50.29 % ↑7.01
Labour Gail Casey 8,392 ↓3172 31.84 % ↓8.92
Conservative Maurice Golden 🎢 3,371 ↑613 12.79 % ↑3.07
Liberal Democrat Frank Bowles 1,339 ↓430 5.08 % ↓1.16
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,862 Swing: ↑7.96%

Cunninghame North

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Kenneth Gibson 🛋 16,775 ↑1236 57.94 % ↑5.33
Labour Johanna Baxter 🎢 6,838 ↓2584 23.62 % ↓8.28
Conservative Jamie Greene 🎢 4,929 ↑897 17.02 % ↑3.37
Liberal Democrat Charity Pierce 💸 411 ↓132 1.42 % ↓0.42
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,937 Swing: ↑6.80%

Cunninghame South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ruth Maguire 11,867 ↑874 56.94 % ↑7.10
Labour Joe Cullinane 6,274 ↓2371 30.10 % ↓9.10
Conservative William McClure 2,287 ↑416 10.97 % ↑2.49
Liberal Democrat Ruby Kirkwood 💸 414 ↓133 1.99 % ↓0.49
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,593 Swing: ↑8.10%

Dumbarton

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gail Robertson 11,792 ↑869 45.87 % ↑7.55
Labour Jackie Baillie 🛋 🎢 9,117 ↓3445 35.46 % ↓8.60
Conservative Maurice Corry 4,150 ↑755 16.14 % ↑4.23
Liberal Democrat Aileen Morton 💸 649 ↓209 2.53 % ↓0.48
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 2,675 Swing: ↑8.07%

Eastwood

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Jackson Carlaw 📃 13,018 ↑2368 41.68 % ↑8.32
Labour Ken Macintosh 🛋 🎢 9,189 ↓3473 29.42 % ↓10.24
SNP Stewart Maxwell 📃 8,396 ↑619 26.88 % ↑2.52
Liberal Democrat John Duncan 💸 632 ↓203 2.02 % ↓0.60
Conservative GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,829 Swing: ↑9.28%

Greenock & Inverclyde

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Stuart McMillan 📃 12,820 ↑944 49.82 % ↑7.72
Labour Siobhan McCready 8,990 ↓3397 34.94 % ↓8.97
Conservative Graeme Brooks 2,458 ↑447 9.55 % ↑2.42
Liberal Democrat John Watson 1,464 ↓470 5.69 % ↓1.17
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,830 Swing: ↑8.35%

Paisley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP George Adam 🛋 11,781 ↑868 49.93 % ↑7.28
Labour Neil Bibby 📃 🎢 7,740 ↓2925 32.80 % ↓8.88
Conservative Paul Masterton 2,725 ↑496 11.55 % ↑2.84
Liberal Democrat Eileen McCartin 1,349 ↓434 5.72 % ↓1.25
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,041 Swing: ↑8.08%

Renfrewshire North & West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Derek Mackay 12,425 ↑915 46.42 % ↑4.56
Labour Mary Fee 📃 🎢 7,218 ↓2728 26.96 % ↓9.21
Conservative David Wilson 6,710 ↑1221 25.06 % ↑5.10
Liberal Democrat Rod Ackland 💸 416 ↓134 1.56 % ↓0.44
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,207 Swing: ↑6.89%

Renfrewshire South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Tom Arthur 11,180 ↑824 45.33 % ↑6.84
Labour Paul O'Kane 9,386 ↓3547 38.06 % ↓10.00
Conservative Ann Leblond 3,566 ↑649 14.46 % ↑3.62
Liberal Democrat Tristan Gray 💸 531 ↓171 2.15 % ↓0.46
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 1,794 Swing: ↑8.42%

Strathkelvin & Bearsden

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Rona Mackay 15,392 ↑1134 48.36 % ↑6.12
Labour Margaret McCarthy 9,040 ↓3416 28.40 % ↓8.50
Conservative Andrew Polson 5,425 ↑987 17.05 % ↑3.90
Liberal Democrat Katy Gordon 1,968 ↓632 6.18 % ↓1.52
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,352 Swing: ↑7.31%