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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

What Scotland Thinks, 27th April 2016

These are our MSP forecasts for the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll-of-polls produced by What Scotland Thinks on 27th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑6.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓11.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓8.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑4.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓5.43

Our forecast

Seats Total Constituencies Regional seats
2011 Forecast Change 2011 Forecast Change 2011 Forecast Change
SNP 69 69 53 66 ↑13 16 3 ↓13
Labour 37 24 ↓13 15 ↓15 22 24 ↑2
Conservative 15 19 ↑4 3 5 ↑2 12 14 ↑2
Green 2 10 ↑8 1 ↑1 2 9 ↑7
Lib Dem 5 6 ↑1 2 1 ↓1 3 5 ↑2
UKIP 1 ↑1 1 ↑1
Independent 1 ↓1 1 ↓1
Regions Constituencies
Central C                  
R              
Glasgow C                  
R              
Highlands and Islands C                
R              
Lothian C                  
R              
Mid Scotland and Fife C                  
R              
North East C                    
R              
South C                  
R              
West C                    
R              

Most marginal constituencies

Constituency Winner Margin Outcome
Orkney Islands SNP 138 GAIN over Liberal Democrat
Edinburgh Central Green 265 GAIN over SNP
Glasgow Kelvin SNP 1,268 HOLD over Green
Edinburgh Pentlands SNP 1,290 HOLD over Conservative
Galloway & West Dumfries Conservative 1,837 HOLD over SNP
Dumfriesshire Conservative 1,968 GAIN over SNP
Shetland Islands Liberal Democrat 2,078 HOLD over SNP
Ayr Conservative 2,272 HOLD over SNP
Glasgow Provan SNP 2,783 GAIN over Labour
Coatbridge & Chryston SNP 3,064 GAIN over Labour

Narrowest regional wins

Region 7th place Next party Allocation shortfall Equivalent votes
Lothian Labour Conservative 59 179
South Labour Conservative 269 1,347
Central Labour SNP 221 2,215
Highlands and Islands SNP Conservative 749 2,248
North East Labour Conservative 1,297 5,188
Mid Scotland and Fife Lib Dem Labour 2,692 8,075
West Labour Conservative 2,723 10,891
Glasgow Labour Labour Same party would win the next seat