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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

What Scotland Thinks, 27th April 2016

These are our forecasts for regional MSPs in the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll-of-polls produced by What Scotland Thinks on 27th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑6.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓11.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓8.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑4.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓5.43

Our forecast

Regions

Central C                  
R              
Glasgow C                  
R              
Highlands and Islands C                
R              
Lothian C                  
R              
Mid Scotland and Fife C                  
R              
North East C                    
R              
South C                  
R              
West C                    
R              

Central

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 53.11 % 27.09 % 10.40 % 1.84 % 5.57 % 2.00 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 110,669 56,442 21,665 3,831 11,612 4,159 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,067 56,442 21,665 3,831 11,612 4,159 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,067 28,221 21,665 3,831 11,612 4,159 0
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,067 18,814 21,665 3,831 11,612 4,159 0
4th divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,067 18,814 10,833 3,831 11,612 4,159 0
5th divisor 10 4 2 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 11,067 14,111 10,833 3,831 11,612 4,159 0
6th divisor 10 5 2 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 11,067 11,288 10,833 3,831 11,612 4,159 0
7th divisor 10 5 2 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 11,067 11,288 10,833 3,831 5,806 4,159 0
8th divisor 10 6 2 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 11,067 9,407 10,833 3,831 5,806 4,159 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Richard Leonard
2 Labour Monica Lennon
3 Conservative Margaret Mitchell
4 Labour Mark Griffin
5 Labour Elaine Smith
6 Green Kirsten Robb
7 Labour Craig Martin

Glasgow

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 44.95 % 26.45 % 9.83 % 3.24 % 13.58 % 1.96 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 84,958 49,988 18,575 6,133 25,668 3,698 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 8,496 49,988 18,575 6,133 25,668 3,698 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 8,496 24,994 18,575 6,133 25,668 3,698 0
3rd divisor 10 2 1 1 2 1 1
3rd allocation 8,496 24,994 18,575 6,133 12,834 3,698 0
4th divisor 10 3 1 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 8,496 16,663 18,575 6,133 12,834 3,698 0
5th divisor 10 3 2 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 8,496 16,663 9,288 6,133 12,834 3,698 0
6th divisor 10 4 2 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 8,496 12,497 9,288 6,133 12,834 3,698 0
7th divisor 10 4 2 1 3 1 1
7th allocation 8,496 12,497 9,288 6,133 8,556 3,698 0
8th divisor 10 5 2 1 3 1 1
8th allocation 8,496 9,998 9,288 6,133 8,556 3,698 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Anas Sarwar
2 Green Patrick Harvie
3 Labour Johann Lamont
4 Conservative Adam Tomkins
5 Labour James Kelly
6 Green Zara Kitson
7 Labour Pauline McNeill

Highlands and Islands

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 45.79 % 9.33 % 15.99 % 13.21 % 9.85 % 5.85 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 7 1
Votes 86,975 17,717 30,368 25,086 18,706 11,104 0
1st divisor 8 1 1 2 1 1 1
1st allocation 10,872 17,717 30,368 12,543 18,706 11,104 0
2nd divisor 8 1 2 2 1 1 1
2nd allocation 10,872 17,717 15,184 12,543 18,706 11,104 0
3rd divisor 8 1 2 2 2 1 1
3rd allocation 10,872 17,717 15,184 12,543 9,353 11,104 0
4th divisor 8 2 2 2 2 1 1
4th allocation 10,872 8,859 15,184 12,543 9,353 11,104 0
5th divisor 8 2 3 2 2 1 1
5th allocation 10,872 8,859 10,123 12,543 9,353 11,104 0
6th divisor 8 2 3 3 2 1 1
6th allocation 10,872 8,859 10,123 8,362 9,353 11,104 0
7th divisor 8 2 3 3 2 2 1
7th allocation 10,872 8,859 10,123 8,362 9,353 5,552 0
8th divisor 9 2 3 3 2 2 1
8th allocation 9,664 8,859 10,123 8,362 9,353 5,552 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Douglas Ross
2 Green John Finnie
3 Labour Rhoda Grant
4 Conservative Edward Mountain
5 Liberal Democrat Jamie Stone
6 UKIP David Coburn
7 SNP Maree Todd

Lothian

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 40.78 % 17.36 % 17.30 % 6.47 % 15.94 % 2.16 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 8 1
Votes 113,421 48,286 48,108 17,996 44,322 6,000 0
1st divisor 9 1 1 1 2 1 1
1st allocation 12,602 48,286 48,108 17,996 22,161 6,000 0
2nd divisor 9 2 1 1 2 1 1
2nd allocation 12,602 24,143 48,108 17,996 22,161 6,000 0
3rd divisor 9 2 2 1 2 1 1
3rd allocation 12,602 24,143 24,054 17,996 22,161 6,000 0
4th divisor 9 3 2 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 12,602 16,095 24,054 17,996 22,161 6,000 0
5th divisor 9 3 3 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 12,602 16,095 16,036 17,996 22,161 6,000 0
6th divisor 9 3 3 1 3 1 1
6th allocation 12,602 16,095 16,036 17,996 14,774 6,000 0
7th divisor 9 3 3 2 3 1 1
7th allocation 12,602 16,095 16,036 8,998 14,774 6,000 0
8th divisor 9 4 3 2 3 1 1
8th allocation 12,602 12,072 16,036 8,998 14,774 6,000 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Kezia Dugdale
2 Conservative Ruth Davidson
3 Labour Neil Findlay
4 Conservative Miles Briggs
5 Green Andy Wightman
6 Liberal Democrat Alex Cole-Hamilton
7 Labour Sarah Boyack

Mid Scotland and Fife

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 44.86 % 16.63 % 19.98 % 6.56 % 8.46 % 3.51 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 119,287 44,233 53,118 17,436 22,494 9,345 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,929 44,233 53,118 17,436 22,494 9,345 0
2nd divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,929 44,233 26,559 17,436 22,494 9,345 0
3rd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,929 22,117 26,559 17,436 22,494 9,345 0
4th divisor 10 2 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,929 22,117 17,706 17,436 22,494 9,345 0
5th divisor 10 2 3 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 11,929 22,117 17,706 17,436 11,247 9,345 0
6th divisor 10 3 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 11,929 14,744 17,706 17,436 11,247 9,345 0
7th divisor 10 3 4 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 11,929 14,744 13,280 17,436 11,247 9,345 0
8th divisor 10 3 4 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 11,929 14,744 13,280 8,718 11,247 9,345 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Murdo Fraser
2 Labour Alex Rowley
3 Conservative Liz Smith
4 Green Mark Ruskell
5 Labour Claire Baker
6 Conservative Dean Lockhart
7 Liberal Democrat Willie Rennie

North East

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 51.49 % 10.75 % 19.65 % 7.51 % 7.68 % 2.92 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 10
Votes 143,880 30,044 54,900 20,986 21,449 8,157 0
1st divisor 11 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 13,080 30,044 54,900 20,986 21,449 8,157 0
2nd divisor 11 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 13,080 30,044 27,450 20,986 21,449 8,157 0
3rd divisor 11 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 13,080 15,022 27,450 20,986 21,449 8,157 0
4th divisor 11 2 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 13,080 15,022 18,300 20,986 21,449 8,157 0
5th divisor 11 2 3 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 13,080 15,022 18,300 20,986 10,725 8,157 0
6th divisor 11 2 3 2 2 1 1
6th allocation 13,080 15,022 18,300 10,493 10,725 8,157 0
7th divisor 11 2 4 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 13,080 15,022 13,725 10,493 10,725 8,157 0
8th divisor 11 3 4 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 13,080 10,015 13,725 10,493 10,725 8,157 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Alex Johnstone
2 Labour Jenny Marra
3 Conservative Alexander Burnett
4 Green Maggie Chapman
5 Liberal Democrat Mike Rumbles
6 Conservative Ross Thomson
7 Labour Lewis MacDonald

South

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 40.28 % 16.66 % 27.30 % 6.01 % 6.07 % 3.68 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 5 4
Votes 116,812 48,321 79,189 17,428 17,591 10,679 0
1st divisor 6 1 5 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 19,469 48,321 15,838 17,428 17,591 10,679 0
2nd divisor 6 2 5 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 19,469 24,161 15,838 17,428 17,591 10,679 0
3rd divisor 6 3 5 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 19,469 16,107 15,838 17,428 17,591 10,679 0
4th divisor 7 3 5 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 16,687 16,107 15,838 17,428 17,591 10,679 0
5th divisor 7 3 5 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 16,687 16,107 15,838 17,428 8,796 10,679 0
6th divisor 7 3 5 2 2 1 1
6th allocation 16,687 16,107 15,838 8,714 8,796 10,679 0
7th divisor 8 3 5 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 14,602 16,107 15,838 8,714 8,796 10,679 0
8th divisor 8 4 5 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 14,602 12,080 15,838 8,714 8,796 10,679 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Iain Gray
2 Labour Claudia Beamish
3 SNP Joan McAlpine
4 Green Sarah Beattie-Smith
5 Liberal Democrat Jim Hume
6 SNP Emma Harper
7 Labour Colin Smyth

West

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 44.38 % 23.44 % 19.41 % 3.91 % 6.42 % 2.44 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9 1
Votes 119,915 63,335 52,444 10,561 17,341 6,586 0
1st divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,992 63,335 26,222 10,561 17,341 6,586 0
2nd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,992 31,668 26,222 10,561 17,341 6,586 0
3rd divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,992 21,112 26,222 10,561 17,341 6,586 0
4th divisor 10 3 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,992 21,112 17,481 10,561 17,341 6,586 0
5th divisor 10 4 3 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 11,992 15,834 17,481 10,561 17,341 6,586 0
6th divisor 10 4 4 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 11,992 15,834 13,111 10,561 17,341 6,586 0
7th divisor 10 4 4 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 11,992 15,834 13,111 10,561 8,671 6,586 0
8th divisor 10 5 4 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 11,992 12,667 13,111 10,561 8,671 6,586 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Jackie Baillie
2 Labour Neil Bibby
3 Conservative Jamie Greene
4 Labour Mary Fee
5 Conservative Maurice Golden
6 Green Ross Greer
7 Labour Ken Macintosh