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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

What Scotland Thinks, 27th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Central region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll-of-polls produced by What Scotland Thinks on 27th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑6.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓11.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓8.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑4.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓5.43

Our forecast

Central: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 53.11 % 27.09 % 10.40 % 1.84 % 5.57 % 2.00 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 110,669 56,442 21,665 3,831 11,612 4,159 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,067 56,442 21,665 3,831 11,612 4,159 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,067 28,221 21,665 3,831 11,612 4,159 0
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,067 18,814 21,665 3,831 11,612 4,159 0
4th divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,067 18,814 10,833 3,831 11,612 4,159 0
5th divisor 10 4 2 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 11,067 14,111 10,833 3,831 11,612 4,159 0
6th divisor 10 5 2 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 11,067 11,288 10,833 3,831 11,612 4,159 0
7th divisor 10 5 2 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 11,067 11,288 10,833 3,831 5,806 4,159 0
8th divisor 10 6 2 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 11,067 9,407 10,833 3,831 5,806 4,159 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Richard Leonard
2 Labour Monica Lennon
3 Conservative Margaret Mitchell
4 Labour Mark Griffin
5 Labour Elaine Smith
6 Green Kirsten Robb
7 Labour Craig Martin

Constituencies in Central region

Airdrie & Shotts

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Alex Neil 🛋 13,729 ↑1745 62.02 % ↑11.87
Labour Richard Leonard 🎢 6,300 ↓3683 28.46 % ↓13.32
Conservative Eric Holford 1,706 ↑310 7.71 % ↑1.87
Liberal Democrat Louise Young 💸 402 ↓129 1.82 % ↓0.40
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,429 Swing: ↑12.59%

Coatbridge & Chryston

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Fulton MacGregor 10,591 ↑1346 50.51 % ↑10.80
Labour Elaine Smith 🛋 🎢 7,527 ↓4401 35.90 % ↓15.34
Conservative Robyn Halbert 1,599 ↑291 7.63 % ↑2.01
Green John Wilson 💸 📃 1,022 ↑526 4.88 % ↑2.75
Liberal Democrat Jenni Lang 💸 229 ↓73 1.09 % ↓0.21
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,064 Swing: ↑13.07%

Cumbernauld & Kilsyth

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jamie Hepburn 🛋 15,575 ↑1980 65.82 % ↑11.99
Labour Mark Griffin 📃 🎢 6,396 ↓3740 27.03 % ↓13.11
Conservative Anthony Newman 1,413 ↑257 5.97 % ↑1.39
Liberal Democrat Irene Lang 💸 278 ↓89 1.17 % ↓0.28
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,179 Swing: ↑12.55%

East Kilbride

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Linda Fabiani 🛋 16,450 ↑2091 60.04 % ↑12.03
Labour LizAnne Handibode 7,832 ↓4578 28.58 % ↓12.91
Conservative Graham Simpson 2,763 ↑503 10.08 % ↑2.52
Liberal Democrat Paul McGarry 💸 354 ↓114 1.29 % ↓0.27
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,618 Swing: ↑12.47%

Falkirk East

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Angus MacDonald 🛋 16,385 ↑2083 61.53 % ↑10.76
Labour Craig Martin 🎢 6,795 ↓3972 25.52 % ↓12.70
Conservative Callum Laidlaw 2,899 ↑527 10.89 % ↑2.47
Liberal Democrat Austin Reid 💸 550 ↓177 2.07 % ↓0.51
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,590 Swing: ↑11.73%

Falkirk West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Michael Matheson 🛋 17,880 ↑2273 65.88 % ↑10.53
Labour Mandy Telford 6,224 ↓3638 22.93 % ↓12.04
Conservative Alison Harris 2,550 ↑464 9.39 % ↑1.99
Liberal Democrat Gillian Cole-Hamilton 💸 487 ↓157 1.80 % ↓0.48
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,656 Swing: ↑11.29%

Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Christina McKelvie 13,979 ↑1777 58.58 % ↑10.45
Labour Margaret McCulloch 📃 6,304 ↓3685 26.42 % ↓12.98
Conservative Margaret Mitchell 📃 🎢 3,113 ↑566 13.05 % ↑3.00
Liberal Democrat Eileen Baxendale 💸 466 ↓150 1.95 % ↓0.48
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,675 Swing: ↑11.71%

Motherwell & Wishaw

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Clare Adamson 11,601 ↑1475 55.82 % ↑14.41
Labour John Pentland 🛋 6,761 ↓3952 32.53 % ↓11.28
Conservative Megan Gallacher 2,143 ↑390 10.31 % ↑3.14
Liberal Democrat Yvonne Finlayson 💸 278 ↓89 1.34 % ↓0.16
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,840 Swing: ↑12.84%

Uddingston & Bellshill

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Richard Lyle 📃 12,392 ↑1575 54.69 % ↑11.41
Labour Michael McMahon 🛋 7,277 ↓4254 32.12 % ↓14.01
Conservative Andrew Morrison 2,588 ↑471 11.42 % ↑2.95
Liberal Democrat Kaitey Blair 💸 401 ↓129 1.77 % ↓0.35
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 5,115 Swing: ↑12.71%