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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

What Scotland Thinks, 27th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Glasgow region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll-of-polls produced by What Scotland Thinks on 27th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑6.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓11.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓8.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑4.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓5.43

Our forecast

Glasgow: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 44.95 % 26.45 % 9.83 % 3.24 % 13.58 % 1.96 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 84,958 49,988 18,575 6,133 25,668 3,698 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 8,496 49,988 18,575 6,133 25,668 3,698 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 8,496 24,994 18,575 6,133 25,668 3,698 0
3rd divisor 10 2 1 1 2 1 1
3rd allocation 8,496 24,994 18,575 6,133 12,834 3,698 0
4th divisor 10 3 1 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 8,496 16,663 18,575 6,133 12,834 3,698 0
5th divisor 10 3 2 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 8,496 16,663 9,288 6,133 12,834 3,698 0
6th divisor 10 4 2 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 8,496 12,497 9,288 6,133 12,834 3,698 0
7th divisor 10 4 2 1 3 1 1
7th allocation 8,496 12,497 9,288 6,133 8,556 3,698 0
8th divisor 10 5 2 1 3 1 1
8th allocation 8,496 9,998 9,288 6,133 8,556 3,698 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Anas Sarwar
2 Green Patrick Harvie
3 Labour Johann Lamont
4 Conservative Adam Tomkins
5 Labour James Kelly
6 Green Zara Kitson
7 Labour Pauline McNeill

Constituencies in Glasgow region

Glasgow Anniesland

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Bill Kidd 🛋 11,833 ↑1504 54.88 % ↑11.69
Labour Bill Butler 6,514 ↓3808 30.21 % ↓12.95
Conservative Adam Tomkins 🎢 2,458 ↑447 11.40 % ↑2.99
Liberal Democrat James Spiers 💸 757 ↓243 3.51 % ↓0.67
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,319 Swing: ↑12.32%

Glasgow Cathcart

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP James Dornan 🛋 13,654 ↑1736 56.98 % ↑11.53
Labour Soryia Siddique 6,516 ↓3810 27.19 % ↓12.19
Conservative Kyle Thornton 2,946 ↑536 12.29 % ↑3.10
Liberal Democrat Margot Clark 💸 846 ↓272 3.53 % ↓0.73
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,138 Swing: ↑11.86%

Glasgow Kelvin

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Sandra White 🛋 10,400 ↑1322 37.91 % ↑0.31
Green Patrick Harvie 📃 🎢 9,132 ↑4701 33.29 % ↑14.94
Labour Michael Shanks 4,843 ↓2832 17.65 % ↓14.14
Conservative Sheila Mechan 2,157 ↑392 7.86 % ↑0.55
Liberal Democrat Carole Ford 💸 904 ↓290 3.29 % ↓1.66
SNP HOLD Majority: 1,268 Swing: ↓7.31%

Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Bob Doris 📃 9,843 ↑1251 54.07 % ↑12.22
Labour Patricia Ferguson 🛋 6,237 ↓3647 34.26 % ↓13.88
Conservative John Anderson 1,494 ↑272 8.21 % ↑2.26
Liberal Democrat James Harrison 💸 630 ↓203 3.46 % ↓0.60
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,606 Swing: ↑13.05%

Glasgow Pollok

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Humza Yousaf 📃 11,745 ↑1493 57.11 % ↑12.37
Labour Johann Lamont 🛋 🎢 6,863 ↓4012 33.37 % ↓14.09
Conservative Thomas Haddow 1,587 ↑289 7.71 % ↑2.05
Liberal Democrat Isabel Nelson 💸 371 ↓119 1.80 % ↓0.34
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,882 Swing: ↑13.23%

Glasgow Provan

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ivan McKee 9,117 ↑1159 54.55 % ↑13.07
Labour Paul Martin 🛋 6,334 ↓3703 37.90 % ↓14.42
Conservative Annie Wells 950 ↑173 5.68 % ↑1.63
Liberal Democrat Thomas Coleman 💸 313 ↓100 1.87 % ↓0.28
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 2,783 Swing: ↑13.75%

Glasgow Shettleston

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP John Mason 🛋 11,603 ↑1475 60.03 % ↑12.27
Labour Thomas Rannachan 6,022 ↓3520 31.15 % ↓13.85
Conservative Thomas Kerr 1,422 ↑259 7.36 % ↑1.88
Liberal Democrat Giovanni Caccavello 💸 281 ↓90 1.45 % ↓0.30
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,581 Swing: ↑13.06%

Glasgow Southside

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Nicola Sturgeon 🛋 14,098 ↑1792 64.97 % ↑10.54
Labour Fariha Thomas 5,021 ↓2936 23.14 % ↓12.06
Conservative Graham Hutchison 2,118 ↑385 9.76 % ↑2.09
Liberal Democrat Kevin Lewsey 💸 463 ↓149 2.13 % ↓0.58
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,077 Swing: ↑11.30%

Rutherglen

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Clare Haughey 12,270 ↑1560 51.99 % ↑12.47
Labour James Kelly 🛋 🎢 7,881 ↓4608 33.39 % ↓12.69
Conservative Taylor Muir 2,562 ↑466 10.86 % ↑3.13
Liberal Democrat Robert Brown 💸 889 ↓285 3.76 % ↓0.57
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,389 Swing: ↑12.58%