Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster
What Scotland Thinks, 27th April 2016
These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Highlands and Islands region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll-of-polls produced by What Scotland Thinks on 27th April.
There’s more information about how we make this work here.
Our forecast
Highlands and Islands: full results
SNP | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | RISE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote share | 45.79 % | 9.33 % | 15.99 % | 13.21 % | 9.85 % | 5.85 % | 0.00 % |
Constituency seats | 7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Votes | 86,975 | 17,717 | 30,368 | 25,086 | 18,706 | 11,104 | 0 |
1st divisor | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1st allocation | 10,872 | 17,717 | 30,368 | 12,543 | 18,706 | 11,104 | 0 |
2nd divisor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2nd allocation | 10,872 | 17,717 | 15,184 | 12,543 | 18,706 | 11,104 | 0 |
3rd divisor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
3rd allocation | 10,872 | 17,717 | 15,184 | 12,543 | 9,353 | 11,104 | 0 |
4th divisor | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
4th allocation | 10,872 | 8,859 | 15,184 | 12,543 | 9,353 | 11,104 | 0 |
5th divisor | 8 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
5th allocation | 10,872 | 8,859 | 10,123 | 12,543 | 9,353 | 11,104 | 0 |
6th divisor | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
6th allocation | 10,872 | 8,859 | 10,123 | 8,362 | 9,353 | 11,104 | 0 |
7th divisor | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
7th allocation | 10,872 | 8,859 | 10,123 | 8,362 | 9,353 | 5,552 | 0 |
8th divisor | 9 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
8th allocation | 9,664 | 8,859 | 10,123 | 8,362 | 9,353 | 5,552 | 0 |
Party | Candidate | |
---|---|---|
1 | Conservative | Douglas Ross |
2 | Green | John Finnie |
3 | Labour | Rhoda Grant |
4 | Conservative | Edward Mountain |
5 | Liberal Democrat | Jamie Stone |
6 | UKIP | David Coburn |
7 | SNP | Maree Todd |
Constituencies in Highlands and Islands region
Argyll & Bute
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Michael Russell 🛋 | 15,340 | ↑1950 | 58.43 % | ↑7.86 |
Conservative | Donald Cameron | 5,925 | ↑1078 | 22.57 % | ↑4.26 |
Labour | Mick Rice | 2,550 | ↓1491 | 9.71 % | ↓5.55 |
Liberal Democrat | Alan Reid | 2,437 | ↓783 | 9.28 % | ↓2.88 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 9,415 | Swing: | ↑1.80% |
Caithness, Sutherland & Ross
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Gail Ross | 15,859 | ↑2016 | 57.23 % | ↑8.83 |
Liberal Democrat | Jamie Stone 🎢 | 4,833 | ↓1552 | 17.44 % | ↓4.89 |
Conservative | Struan Mackie | 3,586 | ↑652 | 12.94 % | ↑2.68 |
Labour | Leah Franchetti | 3,432 | ↓2006 | 12.38 % | ↓6.63 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 11,026 | Swing: | ↑6.86% |
Inverness & Nairn
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Fergus Ewing 🛋 | 19,327 | ↑2457 | 61.72 % | ↑10.18 |
Conservative | Edward Mountain 🎢 | 4,641 | ↑844 | 14.82 % | ↑3.22 |
Labour | David Stewart 📃 | 4,496 | ↓2629 | 14.36 % | ↓7.41 |
Liberal Democrat | Carolyn Caddick | 2,848 | ↓915 | 9.10 % | ↓2.40 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 14,686 | Swing: | ↑3.48% |
Moray
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Richard Lochhead 🛋 | 19,266 | ↑2449 | 64.85 % | ↑6.04 |
Conservative | Douglas Ross 🎢 | 7,179 | ↑1306 | 24.17 % | ↑3.63 |
Labour | Sean Morton | 2,259 | ↓1321 | 7.60 % | ↓4.92 |
Liberal Democrat | Jamie Paterson 💸 | 1,004 | ↓323 | 3.38 % | ↓1.26 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 12,087 | Swing: | ↑1.21% |
Na h-Eileanan an Iar
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Alasdair Allan 🛋 | 9,733 | ↑1237 | 75.19 % | ↑9.89 |
Labour | Rhoda Grant 📃 🎢 | 2,350 | ↓1374 | 18.16 % | ↓10.46 |
Conservative | Ranald Fraser | 688 | ↑125 | 5.32 % | ↑0.99 |
Liberal Democrat | Ken MacLeod 💸 | 173 | ↓55 | 1.33 % | ↓0.42 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 7,383 | Swing: | ↑10.18% |
Orkney Islands
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Donna Heddle | 2,342 | ↑298 | 41.27 % | ↑16.20 |
Liberal Democrat | Liam McArthur 🛋 | 2,204 | ↓708 | 38.84 % | ↑3.12 |
Conservative | Jamie Halcro Johnston | 839 | ↑153 | 14.78 % | ↑6.36 |
Labour | Gerry McGarvey | 289 | ↓169 | 5.09 % | ↓0.53 |
SNP GAIN from Liberal Democrat | Majority: | 138 | Swing: | ↑6.54% |
Shetland Islands
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Liberal Democrat | Tavish Scott 🛋 | 3,377 | ↓1085 | 61.74 % | ↑14.23 |
SNP | Danus Skene | 1,299 | ↑165 | 23.75 % | ↑11.67 |
Conservative | Cameron Smith | 403 | ↑73 | 7.37 % | ↑3.86 |
Labour | Robina Barton | 391 | ↓229 | 7.15 % | ↑0.55 |
Liberal Democrat HOLD | Majority: | 2,078 | Swing: | ↑1.28% |
Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Kate Forbes | 16,883 | ↑2146 | 55.69 % | ↑9.51 |
Liberal Democrat | Angela MacLean | 7,373 | ↓2369 | 24.32 % | ↓6.20 |
Conservative | Robbie Munro | 3,464 | ↑630 | 11.43 % | ↑2.55 |
Labour | Linda Stewart | 2,595 | ↓1517 | 8.56 % | ↓4.32 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 9,510 | Swing: | ↑7.86% |