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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

What Scotland Thinks, 27th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Highlands and Islands region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll-of-polls produced by What Scotland Thinks on 27th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party	2011 %	Prediction %	Change
SNP	45.39 %	%	↑6.61
Labour	31.69 %	%	↓11.69
Conservative	13.91 %	%	↑3.09
Liberal Democrat	7.93 %	%	↓1.93
Others	1.08 %	%	↑3.92

Regions

Party	2011 %	Prediction %	Change
SNP	44.02 %	%	↑0.98
Labour	26.30 %	%	↓8.3
Conservative	12.35 %	%	↑5.65
Liberal Democrat	5.20 %	%	↑0.8
Green	4.37 %	%	↑4.63
UKIP	0.91 %	%	↑2.09
RISE	0.42 %	%	↓0.42
Others	6.43 %	%	↓5.43

Our forecast

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Highlands and Islands: full results

	SNP	Labour	Conservative	Lib Dem	Green	UKIP	RISE
Vote share	45.79 %	9.33 %	15.99 %	13.21 %	9.85 %	5.85 %	0.00 %
Constituency seats	7	—	—	1	—	—	—
Votes	86,975	17,717	30,368	25,086	18,706	11,104	0
1st divisor	8	1	1	2	1	1	1
1st allocation	10,872	17,717	30,368	12,543	18,706	11,104	0
2nd divisor	8	1	2	2	1	1	1
2nd allocation	10,872	17,717	15,184	12,543	18,706	11,104	0
3rd divisor	8	1	2	2	2	1	1
3rd allocation	10,872	17,717	15,184	12,543	9,353	11,104	0
4th divisor	8	2	2	2	2	1	1
4th allocation	10,872	8,859	15,184	12,543	9,353	11,104	0
5th divisor	8	2	3	2	2	1	1
5th allocation	10,872	8,859	10,123	12,543	9,353	11,104	0
6th divisor	8	2	3	3	2	1	1
6th allocation	10,872	8,859	10,123	8,362	9,353	11,104	0
7th divisor	8	2	3	3	2	2	1
7th allocation	10,872	8,859	10,123	8,362	9,353	5,552	0
8th divisor	9	2	3	3	2	2	1
8th allocation	9,664	8,859	10,123	8,362	9,353	5,552	0

	Party	Candidate
1	Conservative	Douglas Ross
2	Green	John Finnie
3	Labour	Rhoda Grant
4	Conservative	Edward Mountain
5	Liberal Democrat	Jamie Stone
6	UKIP	David Coburn
7	SNP	Maree Todd

Constituencies in Highlands and Islands region

Argyll & Bute

Party	Candidate	Votes	Change	Share	Change
SNP	Michael Russell 🛋	15,340	↑1950	58.43 %	↑7.86
Conservative	Donald Cameron	5,925	↑1078	22.57 %	↑4.26
Labour	Mick Rice	2,550	↓1491	9.71 %	↓5.55
Liberal Democrat	Alan Reid	2,437	↓783	9.28 %	↓2.88
SNP HOLD		Majority:	9,415	Swing:	↑1.80%

Caithness, Sutherland & Ross

Party	Candidate	Votes	Change	Share	Change
SNP	Gail Ross	15,859	↑2016	57.23 %	↑8.83
Liberal Democrat	Jamie Stone 🎢	4,833	↓1552	17.44 %	↓4.89
Conservative	Struan Mackie	3,586	↑652	12.94 %	↑2.68
Labour	Leah Franchetti	3,432	↓2006	12.38 %	↓6.63
SNP HOLD		Majority:	11,026	Swing:	↑6.86%

Inverness & Nairn

Party	Candidate	Votes	Change	Share	Change
SNP	Fergus Ewing 🛋	19,327	↑2457	61.72 %	↑10.18
Conservative	Edward Mountain 🎢	4,641	↑844	14.82 %	↑3.22
Labour	David Stewart 📃	4,496	↓2629	14.36 %	↓7.41
Liberal Democrat	Carolyn Caddick	2,848	↓915	9.10 %	↓2.40
SNP HOLD		Majority:	14,686	Swing:	↑3.48%

Moray

Party	Candidate	Votes	Change	Share	Change
SNP	Richard Lochhead 🛋	19,266	↑2449	64.85 %	↑6.04
Conservative	Douglas Ross 🎢	7,179	↑1306	24.17 %	↑3.63
Labour	Sean Morton	2,259	↓1321	7.60 %	↓4.92
Liberal Democrat	Jamie Paterson 💸	1,004	↓323	3.38 %	↓1.26
SNP HOLD		Majority:	12,087	Swing:	↑1.21%

Na h-Eileanan an Iar

Party	Candidate	Votes	Change	Share	Change
SNP	Alasdair Allan 🛋	9,733	↑1237	75.19 %	↑9.89
Labour	Rhoda Grant 📃 🎢	2,350	↓1374	18.16 %	↓10.46
Conservative	Ranald Fraser	688	↑125	5.32 %	↑0.99
Liberal Democrat	Ken MacLeod 💸	173	↓55	1.33 %	↓0.42
SNP HOLD		Majority:	7,383	Swing:	↑10.18%

Orkney Islands

Party	Candidate	Votes	Change	Share	Change
SNP	Donna Heddle	2,342	↑298	41.27 %	↑16.20
Liberal Democrat	Liam McArthur 🛋	2,204	↓708	38.84 %	↑3.12
Conservative	Jamie Halcro Johnston	839	↑153	14.78 %	↑6.36
Labour	Gerry McGarvey	289	↓169	5.09 %	↓0.53
SNP GAIN from Liberal Democrat		Majority:	138	Swing:	↑6.54%

Shetland Islands

Party	Candidate	Votes	Change	Share	Change
Liberal Democrat	Tavish Scott 🛋	3,377	↓1085	61.74 %	↑14.23
SNP	Danus Skene	1,299	↑165	23.75 %	↑11.67
Conservative	Cameron Smith	403	↑73	7.37 %	↑3.86
Labour	Robina Barton	391	↓229	7.15 %	↑0.55
Liberal Democrat HOLD		Majority:	2,078	Swing:	↑1.28%

Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch

Party	Candidate	Votes	Change	Share	Change
SNP	Kate Forbes	16,883	↑2146	55.69 %	↑9.51
Liberal Democrat	Angela MacLean	7,373	↓2369	24.32 %	↓6.20
Conservative	Robbie Munro	3,464	↑630	11.43 %	↑2.55
Labour	Linda Stewart	2,595	↓1517	8.56 %	↓4.32
SNP HOLD		Majority:	9,510	Swing:	↑7.86%