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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

What Scotland Thinks, 27th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Highlands and Islands region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll-of-polls produced by What Scotland Thinks on 27th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑6.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓11.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓8.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑4.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓5.43

Our forecast

Highlands and Islands: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 45.79 % 9.33 % 15.99 % 13.21 % 9.85 % 5.85 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 7 1
Votes 86,975 17,717 30,368 25,086 18,706 11,104 0
1st divisor 8 1 1 2 1 1 1
1st allocation 10,872 17,717 30,368 12,543 18,706 11,104 0
2nd divisor 8 1 2 2 1 1 1
2nd allocation 10,872 17,717 15,184 12,543 18,706 11,104 0
3rd divisor 8 1 2 2 2 1 1
3rd allocation 10,872 17,717 15,184 12,543 9,353 11,104 0
4th divisor 8 2 2 2 2 1 1
4th allocation 10,872 8,859 15,184 12,543 9,353 11,104 0
5th divisor 8 2 3 2 2 1 1
5th allocation 10,872 8,859 10,123 12,543 9,353 11,104 0
6th divisor 8 2 3 3 2 1 1
6th allocation 10,872 8,859 10,123 8,362 9,353 11,104 0
7th divisor 8 2 3 3 2 2 1
7th allocation 10,872 8,859 10,123 8,362 9,353 5,552 0
8th divisor 9 2 3 3 2 2 1
8th allocation 9,664 8,859 10,123 8,362 9,353 5,552 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Douglas Ross
2 Green John Finnie
3 Labour Rhoda Grant
4 Conservative Edward Mountain
5 Liberal Democrat Jamie Stone
6 UKIP David Coburn
7 SNP Maree Todd

Constituencies in Highlands and Islands region

Argyll & Bute

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Michael Russell 🛋 15,340 ↑1950 58.43 % ↑7.86
Conservative Donald Cameron 5,925 ↑1078 22.57 % ↑4.26
Labour Mick Rice 2,550 ↓1491 9.71 % ↓5.55
Liberal Democrat Alan Reid 2,437 ↓783 9.28 % ↓2.88
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,415 Swing: ↑1.80%

Caithness, Sutherland & Ross

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gail Ross 15,859 ↑2016 57.23 % ↑8.83
Liberal Democrat Jamie Stone 🎢 4,833 ↓1552 17.44 % ↓4.89
Conservative Struan Mackie 3,586 ↑652 12.94 % ↑2.68
Labour Leah Franchetti 3,432 ↓2006 12.38 % ↓6.63
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,026 Swing: ↑6.86%

Inverness & Nairn

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Fergus Ewing 🛋 19,327 ↑2457 61.72 % ↑10.18
Conservative Edward Mountain 🎢 4,641 ↑844 14.82 % ↑3.22
Labour David Stewart 📃 4,496 ↓2629 14.36 % ↓7.41
Liberal Democrat Carolyn Caddick 2,848 ↓915 9.10 % ↓2.40
SNP HOLD Majority: 14,686 Swing: ↑3.48%

Moray

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Richard Lochhead 🛋 19,266 ↑2449 64.85 % ↑6.04
Conservative Douglas Ross 🎢 7,179 ↑1306 24.17 % ↑3.63
Labour Sean Morton 2,259 ↓1321 7.60 % ↓4.92
Liberal Democrat Jamie Paterson 💸 1,004 ↓323 3.38 % ↓1.26
SNP HOLD Majority: 12,087 Swing: ↑1.21%

Na h-Eileanan an Iar

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Alasdair Allan 🛋 9,733 ↑1237 75.19 % ↑9.89
Labour Rhoda Grant 📃 🎢 2,350 ↓1374 18.16 % ↓10.46
Conservative Ranald Fraser 688 ↑125 5.32 % ↑0.99
Liberal Democrat Ken MacLeod 💸 173 ↓55 1.33 % ↓0.42
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,383 Swing: ↑10.18%

Orkney Islands

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Donna Heddle 2,342 ↑298 41.27 % ↑16.20
Liberal Democrat Liam McArthur 🛋 2,204 ↓708 38.84 % ↑3.12
Conservative Jamie Halcro Johnston 839 ↑153 14.78 % ↑6.36
Labour Gerry McGarvey 289 ↓169 5.09 % ↓0.53
SNP GAIN from Liberal Democrat Majority: 138 Swing: ↑6.54%

Shetland Islands

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Liberal Democrat Tavish Scott 🛋 3,377 ↓1085 61.74 % ↑14.23
SNP Danus Skene 1,299 ↑165 23.75 % ↑11.67
Conservative Cameron Smith 403 ↑73 7.37 % ↑3.86
Labour Robina Barton 391 ↓229 7.15 % ↑0.55
Liberal Democrat HOLD Majority: 2,078 Swing: ↑1.28%

Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Kate Forbes 16,883 ↑2146 55.69 % ↑9.51
Liberal Democrat Angela MacLean 7,373 ↓2369 24.32 % ↓6.20
Conservative Robbie Munro 3,464 ↑630 11.43 % ↑2.55
Labour Linda Stewart 2,595 ↓1517 8.56 % ↓4.32
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,510 Swing: ↑7.86%