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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

What Scotland Thinks, 27th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Mid Scotland and Fife region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll-of-polls produced by What Scotland Thinks on 27th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑6.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓11.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓8.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑4.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓5.43

Our forecast

Mid Scotland and Fife: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 44.86 % 16.63 % 19.98 % 6.56 % 8.46 % 3.51 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 119,287 44,233 53,118 17,436 22,494 9,345 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,929 44,233 53,118 17,436 22,494 9,345 0
2nd divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,929 44,233 26,559 17,436 22,494 9,345 0
3rd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,929 22,117 26,559 17,436 22,494 9,345 0
4th divisor 10 2 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,929 22,117 17,706 17,436 22,494 9,345 0
5th divisor 10 2 3 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 11,929 22,117 17,706 17,436 11,247 9,345 0
6th divisor 10 3 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 11,929 14,744 17,706 17,436 11,247 9,345 0
7th divisor 10 3 4 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 11,929 14,744 13,280 17,436 11,247 9,345 0
8th divisor 10 3 4 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 11,929 14,744 13,280 8,718 11,247 9,345 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Murdo Fraser
2 Labour Alex Rowley
3 Conservative Liz Smith
4 Green Mark Ruskell
5 Labour Claire Baker
6 Conservative Dean Lockhart
7 Liberal Democrat Willie Rennie

Constituencies in Mid Scotland and Fife region

Clackmannanshire & Dunblane

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Keith Brown 🛋 15,183 ↑1930 57.69 % ↑9.35
Labour Craig Miller 6,086 ↓3558 23.12 % ↓12.06
Conservative Alexander Stewart 4,279 ↑778 16.26 % ↑3.49
Liberal Democrat Christopher McKinlay 💸 770 ↓248 2.93 % ↓0.78
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,097 Swing: ↑10.71%

Cowdenbeath

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Annabelle Ewing 📃 12,234 ↑1555 53.88 % ↑12.28
Labour Alex Rowley 🎢 7,526 ↓4400 33.15 % ↓13.31
Conservative Dave Dempsey 2,190 ↑398 9.65 % ↑2.67
Liberal Democrat Bryn Jones 💸 755 ↓242 3.32 % ↓0.56
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,708 Swing: ↑12.79%

Dunfermline

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Shirley-Anne Somerville 12,613 ↑1603 48.29 % ↑10.71
Labour Cara Hilton 6,576 ↓3844 25.18 % ↓10.38
Liberal Democrat James Calder 4,372 ↓1404 16.74 % ↓2.97
Conservative James Reekie 2,558 ↑465 9.80 % ↑2.66
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,037 Swing: ↑10.55%

Kirkcaldy

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP David Torrance 🛋 14,411 ↑1832 56.94 % ↑11.70
Labour Claire Baker 🎢 7,823 ↓4574 30.91 % ↓13.68
Conservative Martin Laidlaw 2,453 ↑446 9.69 % ↑2.47
Liberal Democrat Lauren Jones 💸 621 ↓199 2.45 % ↓0.50
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,588 Swing: ↑12.69%

Mid Fife & Glenrothes

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jenny Gilruth 15,765 ↑2004 64.79 % ↑12.49
Labour Kay Morrison 6,041 ↓3532 24.83 % ↓11.55
Conservative Alex Stewart-Clark 2,049 ↑373 8.42 % ↑2.05
Liberal Democrat Jane-Ann Liston 💸 477 ↓153 1.96 % ↓0.43
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,724 Swing: ↑12.02%

North East Fife

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Rod Campbell 12,635 ↑1606 44.86 % ↑7.70
Conservative Huw Bell 6,867 ↑1249 24.38 % ↑5.45
Liberal Democrat Willie Rennie 📃 🎢 6,386 ↓2051 22.67 % ↓5.76
Labour Rosalind Garton 2,280 ↓1333 8.09 % ↓4.08
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,768 Swing: ↑1.12%

Perthshire North

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP John Swinney 🛋 20,872 ↑2653 63.10 % ↑2.27
Conservative Murdo Fraser 📃 🎢 9,615 ↑1749 29.07 % ↑2.81
Labour Anna McEwan 1,686 ↓986 5.10 % ↓3.82
Liberal Democrat Peter Barrett 💸 905 ↓291 2.74 % ↓1.25
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,257 Swing: ↓0.27%

Perthshire South & Kinross-shire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Roseanna Cunningham 🛋 18,414 ↑2341 54.93 % ↑3.44
Conservative Liz Smith 🎢 10,888 ↑1981 32.48 % ↑3.95
Labour Scott Nicholson 2,512 ↓1468 7.49 % ↓5.26
Liberal Democrat Willie Robertson 1,707 ↓549 5.09 % ↓2.14
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,526 Swing: ↓0.26%

Stirling

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Bruce Crawford 🛋 17,022 ↑2164 57.83 % ↑8.96
Labour Rebecca Bell 5,798 ↓3390 19.70 % ↓10.52
Conservative Dean Lockhart 🎢 5,635 ↑1025 19.14 % ↑3.98
Liberal Democrat Elisabeth Wilson 💸 981 ↓315 3.33 % ↓0.93
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,224 Swing: ↑9.74%