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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

What Scotland Thinks, 27th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the North East region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll-of-polls produced by What Scotland Thinks on 27th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑6.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓11.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓8.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑4.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓5.43

Our forecast

North East: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 51.49 % 10.75 % 19.65 % 7.51 % 7.68 % 2.92 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 10
Votes 143,880 30,044 54,900 20,986 21,449 8,157 0
1st divisor 11 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 13,080 30,044 54,900 20,986 21,449 8,157 0
2nd divisor 11 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 13,080 30,044 27,450 20,986 21,449 8,157 0
3rd divisor 11 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 13,080 15,022 27,450 20,986 21,449 8,157 0
4th divisor 11 2 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 13,080 15,022 18,300 20,986 21,449 8,157 0
5th divisor 11 2 3 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 13,080 15,022 18,300 20,986 10,725 8,157 0
6th divisor 11 2 3 2 2 1 1
6th allocation 13,080 15,022 18,300 10,493 10,725 8,157 0
7th divisor 11 2 4 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 13,080 15,022 13,725 10,493 10,725 8,157 0
8th divisor 11 3 4 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 13,080 10,015 13,725 10,493 10,725 8,157 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Alex Johnstone
2 Labour Jenny Marra
3 Conservative Alexander Burnett
4 Green Maggie Chapman
5 Liberal Democrat Mike Rumbles
6 Conservative Ross Thomson
7 Labour Lewis MacDonald

Constituencies in North East region

Aberdeen Central

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Kevin Stewart 🛋 11,523 ↑1465 49.99 % ↑10.00
Labour Lewis Macdonald 5,958 ↓3483 25.85 % ↓11.69
Conservative Tom Mason 3,789 ↑689 16.44 % ↑4.11
Liberal Democrat Liam Bruce 1,778 ↓571 7.71 % ↓1.63
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,565 Swing: ↑10.84%

Aberdeen Donside

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Mark McDonald 📃 16,944 ↑2154 66.15 % ↑10.88
Labour Greg Williams 4,806 ↓2809 18.76 % ↓9.70
Conservative Liam Kerr 2,648 ↑482 10.34 % ↑2.25
Liberal Democrat Isobel Davidson 💸 1,216 ↓390 4.75 % ↓1.25
SNP HOLD Majority: 12,138 Swing: ↑10.29%

Aberdeen South & North Kincardine

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Maureen Watt 🛋 13,687 ↑1740 52.69 % ↑10.99
Conservative Ross Thomson 🎢 4,960 ↑902 19.10 % ↑4.94
Liberal Democrat John Waddell 3,780 ↓1214 14.55 % ↓2.88
Labour Alison Evison 3,549 ↓2075 13.66 % ↓5.97
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,727 Swing: ↑3.03%

Aberdeenshire East

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gillian Martin 22,377 ↑2844 69.53 % ↑5.03
Conservative Colin Clark 5,147 ↑936 15.99 % ↑2.09
Liberal Democrat Christine Jardine 3,208 ↓1030 9.97 % ↓4.02
Labour Sarah Flavell 💸 1,454 ↓850 4.52 % ↓3.09
SNP HOLD Majority: 17,230 Swing: ↑1.47%

Aberdeenshire West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Dennis Robertson 🛋 13,961 ↑1775 48.27 % ↑5.72
Conservative Alexander Burnett 🎢 7,367 ↑1340 25.47 % ↑4.42
Liberal Democrat Mike Rumbles 🎢 6,111 ↓1963 21.13 % ↓7.07
Labour Sarah Duncan 1,482 ↓867 5.13 % ↓3.07
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,594 Swing: ↑0.65%

Angus North & Mearns

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Mari Evans 15,649 ↑1989 58.52 % ↑3.70
Conservative Alex Johnstone 📃 🎢 7,791 ↑1417 29.14 % ↑3.56
Labour John Ruddy 1,994 ↓1166 7.46 % ↓5.22
Liberal Democrat Euan Davidson 💸 1,306 ↓420 4.89 % ↓2.04
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,858 Swing: ↑0.07%

Angus South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Graeme Dey 🛋 18,518 ↑2354 65.34 % ↑6.87
Conservative Kirstene Hair 6,822 ↑1241 24.07 % ↑3.88
Labour Joanne McFadden 2,337 ↓1366 8.25 % ↓5.15
Liberal Democrat Clive Sneddon 💸 662 ↓212 2.33 % ↓0.83
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,696 Swing: ↑1.50%

Banffshire & Buchan Coast

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Stewart Stevenson 🛋 19,260 ↑2448 70.64 % ↑3.40
Conservative Peter Chapman 5,613 ↑1021 20.59 % ↑2.22
Labour Nathan Morrison 1,667 ↓975 6.12 % ↓4.45
Liberal Democrat David Evans 💸 725 ↓233 2.66 % ↓1.17
SNP HOLD Majority: 13,647 Swing: ↑0.59%

Dundee City East

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Shona Robison 🛋 18,950 ↑2409 71.86 % ↑7.63
Labour Richard McCready 3,699 ↓2163 14.03 % ↓8.73
Conservative Bill Bowman 3,117 ↑567 11.82 % ↑1.92
Liberal Democrat Craig Duncan 💸 605 ↓195 2.30 % ↓0.81
SNP HOLD Majority: 15,251 Swing: ↑8.18%

Dundee City West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Joe Fitzpatrick 🛋 16,141 ↑2052 67.87 % ↑10.27
Labour Jenny Marra 📃 🎢 4,849 ↓2835 20.39 % ↓11.02
Conservative Nicola Ross 1,986 ↑361 8.35 % ↑1.71
Liberal Democrat Daniel Coleman 💸 805 ↓258 3.38 % ↓0.97
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,292 Swing: ↑10.64%