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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

What Scotland Thinks, 27th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the South region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll-of-polls produced by What Scotland Thinks on 27th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑6.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓11.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓8.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑4.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓5.43

Our forecast

South: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 40.28 % 16.66 % 27.30 % 6.01 % 6.07 % 3.68 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 5 4
Votes 116,812 48,321 79,189 17,428 17,591 10,679 0
1st divisor 6 1 5 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 19,469 48,321 15,838 17,428 17,591 10,679 0
2nd divisor 6 2 5 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 19,469 24,161 15,838 17,428 17,591 10,679 0
3rd divisor 6 3 5 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 19,469 16,107 15,838 17,428 17,591 10,679 0
4th divisor 7 3 5 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 16,687 16,107 15,838 17,428 17,591 10,679 0
5th divisor 7 3 5 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 16,687 16,107 15,838 17,428 8,796 10,679 0
6th divisor 7 3 5 2 2 1 1
6th allocation 16,687 16,107 15,838 8,714 8,796 10,679 0
7th divisor 8 3 5 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 14,602 16,107 15,838 8,714 8,796 10,679 0
8th divisor 8 4 5 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 14,602 12,080 15,838 8,714 8,796 10,679 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Iain Gray
2 Labour Claudia Beamish
3 SNP Joan McAlpine
4 Green Sarah Beattie-Smith
5 Liberal Democrat Jim Hume
6 SNP Emma Harper
7 Labour Colin Smyth

Constituencies in South region

Ayr

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative John Scott 🛋 15,887 ↑2890 45.46 % ↑6.52
SNP Jennifer Dunn 13,615 ↑1731 38.95 % ↑3.34
Labour Brian McGinley 4,909 ↓2870 14.05 % ↓9.26
Liberal Democrat Robbie Simpson 💸 540 ↓173 1.54 % ↓0.60
Conservative HOLD Majority: 2,272 Swing: ↑1.59%

Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jeane Freeman 15,180 ↑1930 55.26 % ↑9.10
Labour Carol Mochan 6,733 ↓3936 24.51 % ↓12.66
Conservative Lee Lyons 5,085 ↑925 18.51 % ↑4.02
Liberal Democrat Dawud Islam 💸 472 ↓152 1.72 % ↓0.45
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,447 Swing: ↑10.88%

Clydesdale

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Aileen Campbell 🛋 16,740 ↑2128 57.96 % ↑9.15
Labour Claudia Beamish 📃 🎢 6,561 ↓3835 22.72 % ↓12.01
Conservative Alex Allison 4,855 ↑883 16.81 % ↑3.54
Liberal Democrat Fraser Grieve 💸 724 ↓233 2.51 % ↓0.69
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,179 Swing: ↑10.58%

Dumfriesshire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Oliver Mundell 11,573 ↑2105 38.30 % ↑8.62
SNP Joan McAlpine 📃 🎢 9,605 ↑1221 31.78 % ↑5.49
Labour Elaine Murray 🛋 7,967 ↓4657 26.36 % ↓13.22
Liberal Democrat Richard Brodie 💸 1,074 ↓345 3.55 % ↓0.90
Conservative GAIN from Labour Majority: 1,968 Swing: ↑1.56%

East Lothian

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP DJ Johnston-Smith 14,189 ↑1804 47.17 % ↑8.68
Labour Iain Gray 🛋 🎢 7,911 ↓4625 26.30 % ↓12.66
Conservative Rachael Hamilton 6,532 ↑1188 21.72 % ↑5.11
Liberal Democrat Ettie Spencer 💸 1,447 ↓465 4.81 % ↓1.13
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 6,278 Swing: ↑10.67%

Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative John Lamont 🛋 15,809 ↑2876 52.39 % ↑7.51
SNP Paul Wheelhouse 📃 8,706 ↑1107 28.85 % ↑2.48
Liberal Democrat Jim Hume 📃 🎢 3,777 ↓1213 12.52 % ↓4.80
Labour Barrie Cunning 1,884 ↓1102 6.24 % ↓4.12
Conservative HOLD Majority: 7,103 Swing: ↑2.51%

Galloway & West Dumfries

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Finlay Carson 13,533 ↑2462 43.90 % ↑6.99
SNP Aileen McLeod 📃 11,696 ↑1487 37.94 % ↑3.91
Labour Fiona O'Donnell 5,019 ↓2935 16.28 % ↓10.24
Liberal Democrat Andrew Metcalf 💸 577 ↓186 1.87 % ↓0.67
Conservative HOLD Majority: 1,837 Swing: ↑1.54%

Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Willie Coffey 🛋 19,434 ↑2470 62.96 % ↑9.71
Labour Dave Meechan 6,923 ↓4048 22.43 % ↓12.01
Conservative Brian Whittle 4,045 ↑736 13.10 % ↑2.71
Liberal Democrat Rebecca Plenderleith 💸 465 ↓149 1.51 % ↓0.42
SNP HOLD Majority: 12,511 Swing: ↑10.86%

Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Christine Grahame 🛋 15,873 ↑2018 51.94 % ↑8.43
Liberal Democrat Kris Chapman 6,760 ↓2171 22.12 % ↓5.93
Conservative Michelle Ballantyne 4,575 ↑832 14.97 % ↑3.21
Labour Fiona Dugdale 3,352 ↓1960 10.97 % ↓5.71
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,113 Swing: ↑7.18%