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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

What Scotland Thinks, 27th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the West region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll-of-polls produced by What Scotland Thinks on 27th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑6.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓11.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓8.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑4.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓5.43

Our forecast

West: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 44.38 % 23.44 % 19.41 % 3.91 % 6.42 % 2.44 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9 1
Votes 119,915 63,335 52,444 10,561 17,341 6,586 0
1st divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,992 63,335 26,222 10,561 17,341 6,586 0
2nd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,992 31,668 26,222 10,561 17,341 6,586 0
3rd divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,992 21,112 26,222 10,561 17,341 6,586 0
4th divisor 10 3 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,992 21,112 17,481 10,561 17,341 6,586 0
5th divisor 10 4 3 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 11,992 15,834 17,481 10,561 17,341 6,586 0
6th divisor 10 4 4 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 11,992 15,834 13,111 10,561 17,341 6,586 0
7th divisor 10 4 4 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 11,992 15,834 13,111 10,561 8,671 6,586 0
8th divisor 10 5 4 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 11,992 12,667 13,111 10,561 8,671 6,586 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Jackie Baillie
2 Labour Neil Bibby
3 Conservative Jamie Greene
4 Labour Mary Fee
5 Conservative Maurice Golden
6 Green Ross Greer
7 Labour Ken Macintosh

Constituencies in West region

Clydebank & Milngavie

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gil Paterson 🛋 14,066 ↑1788 53.95 % ↑10.67
Labour Gail Casey 7,298 ↓4266 27.99 % ↓12.77
Conservative Maurice Golden 🎢 3,371 ↑613 12.93 % ↑3.21
Liberal Democrat Frank Bowles 1,339 ↓430 5.14 % ↓1.10
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,768 Swing: ↑11.72%

Cunninghame North

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Kenneth Gibson 🛋 17,802 ↑2263 61.20 % ↑8.59
Labour Johanna Baxter 5,946 ↓3476 20.44 % ↓11.46
Conservative Jamie Greene 🎢 4,929 ↑897 16.94 % ↑3.29
Liberal Democrat Charity Pierce 💸 411 ↓132 1.41 % ↓0.43
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,856 Swing: ↑10.03%

Cunninghame South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ruth Maguire 12,594 ↑1601 60.69 % ↑10.85
Labour Joe Cullinane 5,456 ↓3189 26.29 % ↓12.91
Conservative William McClure 2,287 ↑416 11.02 % ↑2.54
Liberal Democrat Ruby Kirkwood 💸 414 ↓133 2.00 % ↓0.48
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,138 Swing: ↑11.88%

Dumbarton

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gail Robertson 12,514 ↑1591 49.58 % ↑11.26
Labour Jackie Baillie 🛋 🎢 7,927 ↓4635 31.41 % ↓12.65
Conservative Maurice Corry 4,150 ↑755 16.44 % ↑4.53
Liberal Democrat Aileen Morton 💸 649 ↓209 2.57 % ↓0.44
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,587 Swing: ↑11.96%

Eastwood

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Jackson Carlaw 📃 13,018 ↑2368 42.61 % ↑9.25
SNP Stewart Maxwell 📃 8,910 ↑1133 29.16 % ↑4.80
Labour Ken Macintosh 🛋 🎢 7,991 ↓4671 26.15 % ↓13.51
Liberal Democrat John Duncan 💸 632 ↓203 2.07 % ↓0.55
Conservative GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,108 Swing: ↑2.23%

Greenock & Inverclyde

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Stuart McMillan 📃 13,605 ↑1729 53.68 % ↑11.58
Labour Siobhan McCready 7,817 ↓4570 30.84 % ↓13.07
Conservative Graeme Brooks 2,458 ↑447 9.70 % ↑2.57
Liberal Democrat John Watson 1,464 ↓470 5.78 % ↓1.08
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 5,788 Swing: ↑12.32%

Paisley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP George Adam 🛋 12,502 ↑1589 53.64 % ↑10.99
Labour Neil Bibby 📃 🎢 6,730 ↓3935 28.88 % ↓12.80
Conservative Paul Masterton 2,725 ↑496 11.69 % ↑2.98
Liberal Democrat Eileen McCartin 1,349 ↓434 5.79 % ↓1.18
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,772 Swing: ↑11.89%

Renfrewshire North & West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Derek Mackay 13,186 ↑1676 49.59 % ↑7.73
Conservative David Wilson 6,710 ↑1221 25.23 % ↑5.27
Labour Mary Fee 📃 🎢 6,277 ↓3669 23.61 % ↓12.56
Liberal Democrat Rod Ackland 💸 416 ↓134 1.57 % ↓0.43
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,476 Swing: ↑1.23%

Renfrewshire South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Tom Arthur 11,864 ↑1508 49.18 % ↑10.69
Labour Paul O'Kane 8,162 ↓4771 33.83 % ↓14.23
Conservative Ann Leblond 3,566 ↑649 14.78 % ↑3.94
Liberal Democrat Tristan Gray 💸 531 ↓171 2.20 % ↓0.41
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,702 Swing: ↑12.46%

Strathkelvin & Bearsden

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Rona Mackay 16,334 ↑2076 51.71 % ↑9.47
Labour Margaret McCarthy 7,861 ↓4595 24.88 % ↓12.02
Conservative Andrew Polson 5,425 ↑987 17.17 % ↑4.02
Liberal Democrat Katy Gordon 1,968 ↓632 6.23 % ↓1.47
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,473 Swing: ↑10.75%