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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Ipsos MORI/STV, 27th April 2016

These are our MSP forecasts for the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Ipsos MORI and published by STV on 27th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑5.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓12.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑4.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑4.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓9.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑6.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑1.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑5.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑0.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↑0.58
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

Seats Total Constituencies Regional seats
2011 Forecast Change 2011 Forecast Change 2011 Forecast Change
SNP 69 69 53 66 ↑13 16 3 ↓13
Conservative 15 24 ↑9 3 5 ↑2 12 19 ↑7
Labour 37 20 ↓17 15 ↓15 22 20 ↓2
Green 2 10 ↑8 1 ↑1 2 9 ↑7
Lib Dem 5 6 ↑1 2 1 ↓1 3 5 ↑2
Independent 1 ↓1 1 ↓1
Regions Constituencies
Central C                  
R              
Glasgow C                  
R              
Highlands and Islands C                
R              
Lothian C                  
R              
Mid Scotland and Fife C                  
R              
North East C                    
R              
South C                  
R              
West C                    
R              

Most marginal constituencies

Constituency Winner Margin Outcome
Glasgow Kelvin SNP 53 HOLD over Green
Orkney Islands SNP 93 GAIN over Liberal Democrat
Edinburgh Pentlands SNP 364 HOLD over Conservative
Edinburgh Central Green 1,473 GAIN over SNP
Shetland Islands Liberal Democrat 2,103 HOLD over SNP
Dumfriesshire Conservative 2,834 GAIN over SNP
Galloway & West Dumfries Conservative 2,858 HOLD over SNP
Glasgow Provan SNP 2,925 GAIN over Labour
Edinburgh Southern SNP 3,025 HOLD over Conservative
Coatbridge & Chryston SNP 3,237 GAIN over Labour

Narrowest regional wins

Region 7th place Next party Allocation shortfall Equivalent votes
Highlands and Islands Conservative Green 293 586
North East Conservative Labour 300 600
Lothian Conservative Green 511 1,533
Central Conservative SNP 368 3,677
Glasgow Labour Conservative 1,999 3,999
South SNP Labour 1,475 4,426
West Labour Conservative 1,115 4,459
Mid Scotland and Fife Conservative Conservative Same party would win the next seat