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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Ipsos MORI/STV, 27th April 2016

These are our forecasts for regional MSPs in the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Ipsos MORI and published by STV on 27th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑5.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓12.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑4.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑4.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓9.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑6.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑1.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑5.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑0.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↑0.58
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

Regions

Central C                  
R              
Glasgow C                  
R              
Highlands and Islands C                
R              
Lothian C                  
R              
Mid Scotland and Fife C                  
R              
North East C                    
R              
South C                  
R              
West C                    
R              

Central

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 53.32 % 25.68 % 11.02 % 2.15 % 6.22 % 0.67 % 0.95 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 110,669 53,306 22,869 4,469 12,902 1,386 1,974
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,067 53,306 22,869 4,469 12,902 1,386 1,974
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,067 26,653 22,869 4,469 12,902 1,386 1,974
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,067 17,769 22,869 4,469 12,902 1,386 1,974
4th divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,067 17,769 11,435 4,469 12,902 1,386 1,974
5th divisor 10 4 2 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 11,067 13,327 11,435 4,469 12,902 1,386 1,974
6th divisor 10 5 2 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 11,067 10,661 11,435 4,469 12,902 1,386 1,974
7th divisor 10 5 2 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 11,067 10,661 11,435 4,469 6,451 1,386 1,974
8th divisor 10 5 3 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 11,067 10,661 7,623 4,469 6,451 1,386 1,974
Party Candidate
1 Labour Richard Leonard
2 Labour Monica Lennon
3 Conservative Margaret Mitchell
4 Labour Mark Griffin
5 Labour Elaine Smith
6 Green Kirsten Robb
7 Conservative Graham Simpson

Glasgow

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 44.26 % 24.59 % 10.21 % 3.73 % 14.86 % 0.64 % 1.71 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 84,958 47,211 19,607 7,155 28,520 1,233 3,278
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 8,496 47,211 19,607 7,155 28,520 1,233 3,278
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 8,496 23,606 19,607 7,155 28,520 1,233 3,278
3rd divisor 10 2 1 1 2 1 1
3rd allocation 8,496 23,606 19,607 7,155 14,260 1,233 3,278
4th divisor 10 3 1 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 8,496 15,737 19,607 7,155 14,260 1,233 3,278
5th divisor 10 3 2 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 8,496 15,737 9,804 7,155 14,260 1,233 3,278
6th divisor 10 4 2 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 8,496 11,803 9,804 7,155 14,260 1,233 3,278
7th divisor 10 4 2 1 3 1 1
7th allocation 8,496 11,803 9,804 7,155 9,507 1,233 3,278
8th divisor 10 5 2 1 3 1 1
8th allocation 8,496 9,442 9,804 7,155 9,507 1,233 3,278
Party Candidate
1 Labour Anas Sarwar
2 Green Patrick Harvie
3 Labour Johann Lamont
4 Conservative Adam Tomkins
5 Labour James Kelly
6 Green Zara Kitson
7 Labour Pauline McNeill

Highlands and Islands

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 45.60 % 8.77 % 16.81 % 15.34 % 10.90 % 1.94 % 0.64 %
Constituency seats 7 1
Votes 86,975 16,733 32,055 29,266 20,784 3,701 1,225
1st divisor 8 1 1 2 1 1 1
1st allocation 10,872 16,733 32,055 14,633 20,784 3,701 1,225
2nd divisor 8 1 2 2 1 1 1
2nd allocation 10,872 16,733 16,028 14,633 20,784 3,701 1,225
3rd divisor 8 1 2 2 2 1 1
3rd allocation 10,872 16,733 16,028 14,633 10,392 3,701 1,225
4th divisor 8 2 2 2 2 1 1
4th allocation 10,872 8,367 16,028 14,633 10,392 3,701 1,225
5th divisor 8 2 3 2 2 1 1
5th allocation 10,872 8,367 10,685 14,633 10,392 3,701 1,225
6th divisor 8 2 3 3 2 1 1
6th allocation 10,872 8,367 10,685 9,755 10,392 3,701 1,225
7th divisor 9 2 3 3 2 1 1
7th allocation 9,664 8,367 10,685 9,755 10,392 3,701 1,225
8th divisor 9 2 4 3 2 1 1
8th allocation 9,664 8,367 8,014 9,755 10,392 3,701 1,225
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Douglas Ross
2 Green John Finnie
3 Labour Rhoda Grant
4 Conservative Edward Mountain
5 Liberal Democrat Jamie Stone
6 SNP Maree Todd
7 Conservative Donald Cameron

Lothian

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 39.81 % 16.01 % 17.82 % 7.37 % 17.29 % 0.70 % 1.00 %
Constituency seats 8 1
Votes 113,421 45,604 50,780 20,995 49,247 2,000 2,847
1st divisor 9 1 1 1 2 1 1
1st allocation 12,602 45,604 50,780 20,995 24,624 2,000 2,847
2nd divisor 9 1 2 1 2 1 1
2nd allocation 12,602 45,604 25,390 20,995 24,624 2,000 2,847
3rd divisor 9 2 2 1 2 1 1
3rd allocation 12,602 22,802 25,390 20,995 24,624 2,000 2,847
4th divisor 9 2 3 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 12,602 22,802 16,927 20,995 24,624 2,000 2,847
5th divisor 9 2 3 1 3 1 1
5th allocation 12,602 22,802 16,927 20,995 16,416 2,000 2,847
6th divisor 9 3 3 1 3 1 1
6th allocation 12,602 15,201 16,927 20,995 16,416 2,000 2,847
7th divisor 9 3 3 2 3 1 1
7th allocation 12,602 15,201 16,927 10,498 16,416 2,000 2,847
8th divisor 9 3 4 2 3 1 1
8th allocation 12,602 15,201 12,695 10,498 16,416 2,000 2,847
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Ruth Davidson
2 Labour Kezia Dugdale
3 Conservative Miles Briggs
4 Green Andy Wightman
5 Labour Neil Findlay
6 Liberal Democrat Alex Cole-Hamilton
7 Conservative Gordon Lindhurst

Mid Scotland and Fife

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 44.58 % 15.61 % 20.95 % 7.60 % 9.34 % 1.16 % 0.75 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 119,287 41,776 56,069 20,342 24,993 3,115 2,007
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,929 41,776 56,069 20,342 24,993 3,115 2,007
2nd divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,929 41,776 28,035 20,342 24,993 3,115 2,007
3rd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,929 20,888 28,035 20,342 24,993 3,115 2,007
4th divisor 10 2 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,929 20,888 18,690 20,342 24,993 3,115 2,007
5th divisor 10 2 3 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 11,929 20,888 18,690 20,342 12,497 3,115 2,007
6th divisor 10 3 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 11,929 13,925 18,690 20,342 12,497 3,115 2,007
7th divisor 10 3 3 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 11,929 13,925 18,690 10,171 12,497 3,115 2,007
8th divisor 10 3 4 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 11,929 13,925 14,017 10,171 12,497 3,115 2,007
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Murdo Fraser
2 Labour Alex Rowley
3 Conservative Liz Smith
4 Green Mark Ruskell
5 Labour Claire Baker
6 Liberal Democrat Willie Rennie
7 Conservative Dean Lockhart

North East

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 50.68 % 9.99 % 20.41 % 8.62 % 8.39 % 0.96 % 0.95 %
Constituency seats 10
Votes 143,880 28,375 57,950 24,484 23,832 2,719 2,684
1st divisor 11 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 13,080 28,375 57,950 24,484 23,832 2,719 2,684
2nd divisor 11 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 13,080 28,375 28,975 24,484 23,832 2,719 2,684
3rd divisor 11 1 3 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 13,080 28,375 19,317 24,484 23,832 2,719 2,684
4th divisor 11 2 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 13,080 14,188 19,317 24,484 23,832 2,719 2,684
5th divisor 11 2 3 2 1 1 1
5th allocation 13,080 14,188 19,317 12,242 23,832 2,719 2,684
6th divisor 11 2 3 2 2 1 1
6th allocation 13,080 14,188 19,317 12,242 11,916 2,719 2,684
7th divisor 11 2 4 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 13,080 14,188 14,488 12,242 11,916 2,719 2,684
8th divisor 11 2 5 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 13,080 14,188 11,590 12,242 11,916 2,719 2,684
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Alex Johnstone
2 Conservative Alexander Burnett
3 Labour Jenny Marra
4 Liberal Democrat Mike Rumbles
5 Green Maggie Chapman
6 Conservative Ross Thomson
7 Conservative Peter Chapman

South

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 40.12 % 15.67 % 28.71 % 6.98 % 6.71 % 1.22 % 0.58 %
Constituency seats 5 4
Votes 116,812 45,637 83,589 20,333 19,545 3,560 1,678
1st divisor 6 1 5 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 19,469 45,637 16,718 20,333 19,545 3,560 1,678
2nd divisor 6 2 5 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 19,469 22,819 16,718 20,333 19,545 3,560 1,678
3rd divisor 6 3 5 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 19,469 15,212 16,718 20,333 19,545 3,560 1,678
4th divisor 6 3 5 2 1 1 1
4th allocation 19,469 15,212 16,718 10,167 19,545 3,560 1,678
5th divisor 6 3 5 2 2 1 1
5th allocation 19,469 15,212 16,718 10,167 9,773 3,560 1,678
6th divisor 7 3 5 2 2 1 1
6th allocation 16,687 15,212 16,718 10,167 9,773 3,560 1,678
7th divisor 7 3 6 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 16,687 15,212 13,932 10,167 9,773 3,560 1,678
8th divisor 8 3 6 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 14,602 15,212 13,932 10,167 9,773 3,560 1,678
Party Candidate
1 Labour Iain Gray
2 Labour Claudia Beamish
3 Liberal Democrat Jim Hume
4 Green Sarah Beattie-Smith
5 SNP Joan McAlpine
6 Conservative Rachael Hamilton
7 SNP Emma Harper

West

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 43.91 % 21.90 % 20.27 % 4.51 % 7.06 % 0.80 % 1.54 %
Constituency seats 9 1
Votes 119,915 59,816 55,357 12,321 19,268 2,195 4,217
1st divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,992 59,816 27,679 12,321 19,268 2,195 4,217
2nd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,992 29,908 27,679 12,321 19,268 2,195 4,217
3rd divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,992 19,939 27,679 12,321 19,268 2,195 4,217
4th divisor 10 3 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,992 19,939 18,452 12,321 19,268 2,195 4,217
5th divisor 10 4 3 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 11,992 14,954 18,452 12,321 19,268 2,195 4,217
6th divisor 10 4 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 11,992 14,954 18,452 12,321 9,634 2,195 4,217
7th divisor 10 4 4 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 11,992 14,954 13,839 12,321 9,634 2,195 4,217
8th divisor 10 5 4 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 11,992 11,963 13,839 12,321 9,634 2,195 4,217
Party Candidate
1 Labour Jackie Baillie
2 Labour Neil Bibby
3 Conservative Jamie Greene
4 Labour Mary Fee
5 Green Ross Greer
6 Conservative Maurice Golden
7 Labour Ken Macintosh