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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Ipsos MORI/STV, 27th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Central region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Ipsos MORI and published by STV on 27th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑5.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓12.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑4.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑4.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓9.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑6.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑1.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑5.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑0.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↑0.58
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

Central: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 53.32 % 25.68 % 11.02 % 2.15 % 6.22 % 0.67 % 0.95 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 110,669 53,306 22,869 4,469 12,902 1,386 1,974
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,067 53,306 22,869 4,469 12,902 1,386 1,974
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,067 26,653 22,869 4,469 12,902 1,386 1,974
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,067 17,769 22,869 4,469 12,902 1,386 1,974
4th divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,067 17,769 11,435 4,469 12,902 1,386 1,974
5th divisor 10 4 2 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 11,067 13,327 11,435 4,469 12,902 1,386 1,974
6th divisor 10 5 2 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 11,067 10,661 11,435 4,469 12,902 1,386 1,974
7th divisor 10 5 2 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 11,067 10,661 11,435 4,469 6,451 1,386 1,974
8th divisor 10 5 3 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 11,067 10,661 7,623 4,469 6,451 1,386 1,974
Party Candidate
1 Labour Richard Leonard
2 Labour Monica Lennon
3 Conservative Margaret Mitchell
4 Labour Mark Griffin
5 Labour Elaine Smith
6 Green Kirsten Robb
7 Conservative Graham Simpson

Constituencies in Central region

Airdrie & Shotts

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Alex Neil 🛋 13,465 ↑1481 62.17 % ↑12.02
Labour Richard Leonard 🎢 5,985 ↓3998 27.63 % ↓14.15
Conservative Eric Holford 1,807 ↑411 8.34 % ↑2.50
Liberal Democrat Louise Young 💸 402 ↓129 1.86 % ↓0.36
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,480 Swing: ↑13.09%

Coatbridge & Chryston

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Fulton MacGregor 10,388 ↑1143 50.43 % ↑10.72
Labour Elaine Smith 🛋 🎢 7,151 ↓4777 34.72 % ↓16.52
Conservative Robyn Halbert 1,693 ↑385 8.22 % ↑2.60
Green John Wilson 📃 1,136 ↑640 5.51 % ↑3.38
Liberal Democrat Jenni Lang 💸 229 ↓73 1.11 % ↓0.19
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,237 Swing: ↑13.62%

Cumbernauld & Kilsyth

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jamie Hepburn 🛋 15,275 ↑1680 66.05 % ↑12.22
Labour Mark Griffin 📃 🎢 6,077 ↓4059 26.28 % ↓13.86
Conservative Anthony Newman 1,496 ↑340 6.47 % ↑1.89
Liberal Democrat Irene Lang 💸 278 ↓89 1.20 % ↓0.25
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,198 Swing: ↑13.04%

East Kilbride

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Linda Fabiani 🛋 16,134 ↑1775 60.08 % ↑12.07
Labour LizAnne Handibode 7,440 ↓4970 27.71 % ↓13.78
Conservative Graham Simpson 🎢 2,925 ↑665 10.89 % ↑3.33
Liberal Democrat Paul McGarry 💸 354 ↓114 1.32 % ↓0.24
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,694 Swing: ↑12.93%

Falkirk East

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Angus MacDonald 🛋 16,070 ↑1768 61.46 % ↑10.69
Labour Craig Martin 6,455 ↓4312 24.69 % ↓13.53
Conservative Callum Laidlaw 3,070 ↑698 11.74 % ↑3.32
Liberal Democrat Austin Reid 💸 550 ↓177 2.10 % ↓0.48
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,615 Swing: ↑12.11%

Falkirk West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Michael Matheson 🛋 17,536 ↑1929 65.84 % ↑10.49
Labour Mandy Telford 5,912 ↓3950 22.20 % ↓12.77
Conservative Alison Harris 2,700 ↑614 10.14 % ↑2.74
Liberal Democrat Gillian Cole-Hamilton 💸 487 ↓157 1.83 % ↓0.45
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,624 Swing: ↑11.63%

Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Christina McKelvie 13,710 ↑1508 58.44 % ↑10.31
Labour Margaret McCulloch 📃 5,989 ↓4000 25.53 % ↓13.87
Conservative Margaret Mitchell 📃 🎢 3,296 ↑749 14.05 % ↑4.00
Liberal Democrat Eileen Baxendale 💸 466 ↓150 1.99 % ↓0.44
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,721 Swing: ↑12.09%

Motherwell & Wishaw

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Clare Adamson 11,377 ↑1251 55.92 % ↑14.51
Labour John Pentland 🛋 6,423 ↓4290 31.57 % ↓12.24
Conservative Megan Gallacher 2,269 ↑516 11.15 % ↑3.98
Liberal Democrat Yvonne Finlayson 💸 278 ↓89 1.37 % ↓0.13
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,954 Swing: ↑13.38%

Uddingston & Bellshill

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Richard Lyle 📃 12,154 ↑1337 54.73 % ↑11.45
Labour Michael McMahon 🛋 6,913 ↓4618 31.13 % ↓15.00
Conservative Andrew Morrison 2,740 ↑623 12.34 % ↑3.87
Liberal Democrat Kaitey Blair 💸 401 ↓129 1.81 % ↓0.31
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 5,241 Swing: ↑13.22%