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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Ipsos MORI/STV, 27th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Glasgow region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Ipsos MORI and published by STV on 27th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑5.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓12.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑4.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑4.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓9.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑6.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑1.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑5.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑0.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↑0.58
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

Glasgow: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 44.26 % 24.59 % 10.21 % 3.73 % 14.86 % 0.64 % 1.71 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 84,958 47,211 19,607 7,155 28,520 1,233 3,278
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 8,496 47,211 19,607 7,155 28,520 1,233 3,278
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 8,496 23,606 19,607 7,155 28,520 1,233 3,278
3rd divisor 10 2 1 1 2 1 1
3rd allocation 8,496 23,606 19,607 7,155 14,260 1,233 3,278
4th divisor 10 3 1 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 8,496 15,737 19,607 7,155 14,260 1,233 3,278
5th divisor 10 3 2 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 8,496 15,737 9,804 7,155 14,260 1,233 3,278
6th divisor 10 4 2 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 8,496 11,803 9,804 7,155 14,260 1,233 3,278
7th divisor 10 4 2 1 3 1 1
7th allocation 8,496 11,803 9,804 7,155 9,507 1,233 3,278
8th divisor 10 5 2 1 3 1 1
8th allocation 8,496 9,442 9,804 7,155 9,507 1,233 3,278
Party Candidate
1 Labour Anas Sarwar
2 Green Patrick Harvie
3 Labour Johann Lamont
4 Conservative Adam Tomkins
5 Labour James Kelly
6 Green Zara Kitson
7 Labour Pauline McNeill

Constituencies in Glasgow region

Glasgow Anniesland

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Bill Kidd 🛋 11,606 ↑1277 54.86 % ↑11.67
Labour Bill Butler 6,188 ↓4134 29.25 % ↓13.91
Conservative Adam Tomkins 🎢 2,603 ↑592 12.30 % ↑3.89
Liberal Democrat James Spiers 💸 757 ↓243 3.58 % ↓0.60
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,418 Swing: ↑12.79%

Glasgow Cathcart

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP James Dornan 🛋 13,391 ↑1473 56.87 % ↑11.42
Labour Soryia Siddique 6,191 ↓4135 26.29 % ↓13.09
Conservative Kyle Thornton 3,119 ↑709 13.25 % ↑4.06
Liberal Democrat Margot Clark 💸 846 ↓272 3.59 % ↓0.67
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,200 Swing: ↑12.25%

Glasgow Kelvin

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Sandra White 🛋 10,200 ↑1122 36.25 % ↓1.35
Green Patrick Harvie 📃 🎢 10,147 ↑5716 36.06 % ↑17.71
Labour Michael Shanks 4,601 ↓3074 16.35 % ↓15.44
Conservative Sheila Mechan 2,284 ↑519 8.12 % ↑0.81
Liberal Democrat Carole Ford 💸 904 ↓290 3.21 % ↓1.74
SNP HOLD Majority: 53 Swing: ↓9.53%

Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Bob Doris 📃 9,654 ↑1062 54.26 % ↑12.41
Labour Patricia Ferguson 🛋 5,926 ↓3958 33.30 % ↓14.84
Conservative John Anderson 1,582 ↑360 8.89 % ↑2.94
Liberal Democrat James Harrison 💸 630 ↓203 3.54 % ↓0.52
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,728 Swing: ↑13.62%

Glasgow Pollok

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Humza Yousaf 📃 11,519 ↑1267 57.34 % ↑12.60
Labour Johann Lamont 🛋 🎢 6,520 ↓4355 32.45 % ↓15.01
Conservative Thomas Haddow 1,680 ↑382 8.36 % ↑2.70
Liberal Democrat Isabel Nelson 💸 371 ↓119 1.85 % ↓0.29
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,999 Swing: ↑13.80%

Glasgow Provan

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ivan McKee 8,942 ↑984 54.93 % ↑13.45
Labour Paul Martin 🛋 6,017 ↓4020 36.97 % ↓15.35
Conservative Annie Wells 1,006 ↑229 6.18 % ↑2.13
Liberal Democrat Thomas Coleman 💸 313 ↓100 1.92 % ↓0.23
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 2,925 Swing: ↑14.40%

Glasgow Shettleston

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP John Mason 🛋 11,380 ↑1252 60.25 % ↑12.49
Labour Thomas Rannachan 5,721 ↓3821 30.29 % ↓14.71
Conservative Thomas Kerr 1,505 ↑342 7.97 % ↑2.49
Liberal Democrat Giovanni Caccavello 💸 281 ↓90 1.49 % ↓0.26
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,659 Swing: ↑13.60%

Glasgow Southside

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Nicola Sturgeon 🛋 13,827 ↑1521 64.91 % ↑10.48
Labour Fariha Thomas 4,770 ↓3187 22.39 % ↓12.81
Conservative Graham Hutchison 2,243 ↑510 10.53 % ↑2.86
Liberal Democrat Kevin Lewsey 💸 463 ↓149 2.17 % ↓0.54
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,057 Swing: ↑11.64%

Rutherglen

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Clare Haughey 12,034 ↑1324 52.04 % ↑12.52
Labour James Kelly 🛋 🎢 7,487 ↓5002 32.38 % ↓13.70
Conservative Taylor Muir 2,713 ↑617 11.73 % ↑4.00
Liberal Democrat Robert Brown 💸 889 ↓285 3.84 % ↓0.49
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,547 Swing: ↑13.11%