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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Ipsos MORI/STV, 27th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Highlands and Islands region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Ipsos MORI and published by STV on 27th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑5.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓12.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑4.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑4.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓9.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑6.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑1.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑5.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑0.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↑0.58
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

Highlands and Islands: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 45.60 % 8.77 % 16.81 % 15.34 % 10.90 % 1.94 % 0.64 %
Constituency seats 7 1
Votes 86,975 16,733 32,055 29,266 20,784 3,701 1,225
1st divisor 8 1 1 2 1 1 1
1st allocation 10,872 16,733 32,055 14,633 20,784 3,701 1,225
2nd divisor 8 1 2 2 1 1 1
2nd allocation 10,872 16,733 16,028 14,633 20,784 3,701 1,225
3rd divisor 8 1 2 2 2 1 1
3rd allocation 10,872 16,733 16,028 14,633 10,392 3,701 1,225
4th divisor 8 2 2 2 2 1 1
4th allocation 10,872 8,367 16,028 14,633 10,392 3,701 1,225
5th divisor 8 2 3 2 2 1 1
5th allocation 10,872 8,367 10,685 14,633 10,392 3,701 1,225
6th divisor 8 2 3 3 2 1 1
6th allocation 10,872 8,367 10,685 9,755 10,392 3,701 1,225
7th divisor 9 2 3 3 2 1 1
7th allocation 9,664 8,367 10,685 9,755 10,392 3,701 1,225
8th divisor 9 2 4 3 2 1 1
8th allocation 9,664 8,367 8,014 9,755 10,392 3,701 1,225
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Douglas Ross
2 Green John Finnie
3 Labour Rhoda Grant
4 Conservative Edward Mountain
5 Liberal Democrat Jamie Stone
6 SNP Maree Todd
7 Conservative Donald Cameron

Constituencies in Highlands and Islands region

Argyll & Bute

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Michael Russell 🛋 15,045 ↑1655 57.47 % ↑6.90
Conservative Donald Cameron 🎢 6,273 ↑1426 23.96 % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat Alan Reid 2,437 ↓783 9.31 % ↓2.85
Labour Mick Rice 2,423 ↓1618 9.25 % ↓6.01
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,772 Swing: ↑0.62%

Caithness, Sutherland & Ross

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gail Ross 15,554 ↑1711 56.68 % ↑8.28
Liberal Democrat Jamie Stone 🎢 4,833 ↓1552 17.61 % ↓4.72
Conservative Struan Mackie 3,797 ↑863 13.84 % ↑3.58
Labour Leah Franchetti 3,260 ↓2178 11.88 % ↓7.13
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,721 Swing: ↑6.50%

Inverness & Nairn

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Fergus Ewing 🛋 18,955 ↑2085 61.17 % ↑9.63
Conservative Edward Mountain 🎢 4,914 ↑1117 15.86 % ↑4.26
Labour David Stewart 📃 4,272 ↓2853 13.78 % ↓7.99
Liberal Democrat Carolyn Caddick 2,848 ↓915 9.19 % ↓2.31
SNP HOLD Majority: 14,041 Swing: ↑2.69%

Moray

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Richard Lochhead 🛋 18,895 ↑2078 63.74 % ↑4.93
Conservative Douglas Ross 🎢 7,601 ↑1728 25.64 % ↑5.10
Labour Sean Morton 2,146 ↓1434 7.24 % ↓5.28
Liberal Democrat Jamie Paterson 💸 1,004 ↓323 3.39 % ↓1.25
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,294 Swing: ↓0.08%

Na h-Eileanan an Iar

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Alasdair Allan 🛋 9,546 ↑1050 75.28 % ↑9.98
Labour Rhoda Grant 📃 🎢 2,233 ↓1491 17.61 % ↓11.01
Conservative Ranald Fraser 729 ↑166 5.75 % ↑1.42
Liberal Democrat Ken MacLeod 💸 173 ↓55 1.36 % ↓0.39
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,313 Swing: ↑10.50%

Orkney Islands

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Donna Heddle 2,297 ↑253 40.55 % ↑15.48
Liberal Democrat Liam McArthur 🛋 2,204 ↓708 38.91 % ↑3.19
Conservative Jamie Halcro Johnston 888 ↑202 15.68 % ↑7.26
Labour Gerry McGarvey 💸 275 ↓183 4.85 % ↓0.77
SNP GAIN from Liberal Democrat Majority: 93 Swing: ↑6.15%

Shetland Islands

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Liberal Democrat Tavish Scott 🛋 3,377 ↓1085 61.97 % ↑14.46
SNP Danus Skene 1,274 ↑140 23.38 % ↑11.30
Conservative Cameron Smith 427 ↑97 7.84 % ↑4.33
Labour Robina Barton 372 ↓248 6.82 % ↑0.22
Liberal Democrat HOLD Majority: 2,103 Swing: ↑1.58%

Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Kate Forbes 16,558 ↑1821 55.08 % ↑8.90
Liberal Democrat Angela MacLean 7,373 ↓2369 24.53 % ↓5.99
Conservative Robbie Munro 3,668 ↑834 12.20 % ↑3.32
Labour Linda Stewart 2,465 ↓1647 8.20 % ↓4.68
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,185 Swing: ↑7.45%