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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Ipsos MORI/STV, 27th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Lothian region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Ipsos MORI and published by STV on 27th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑5.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓12.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑4.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑4.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓9.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑6.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑1.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑5.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑0.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↑0.58
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

Lothian: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 39.81 % 16.01 % 17.82 % 7.37 % 17.29 % 0.70 % 1.00 %
Constituency seats 8 — — — 1 — —
Votes 113,421 45,604 50,780 20,995 49,247 2,000 2,847
1st divisor 9 1 1 1 2 1 1
1st allocation 12,602 45,604 50,780 20,995 24,624 2,000 2,847
2nd divisor 9 1 2 1 2 1 1
2nd allocation 12,602 45,604 25,390 20,995 24,624 2,000 2,847
3rd divisor 9 2 2 1 2 1 1
3rd allocation 12,602 22,802 25,390 20,995 24,624 2,000 2,847
4th divisor 9 2 3 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 12,602 22,802 16,927 20,995 24,624 2,000 2,847
5th divisor 9 2 3 1 3 1 1
5th allocation 12,602 22,802 16,927 20,995 16,416 2,000 2,847
6th divisor 9 3 3 1 3 1 1
6th allocation 12,602 15,201 16,927 20,995 16,416 2,000 2,847
7th divisor 9 3 3 2 3 1 1
7th allocation 12,602 15,201 16,927 10,498 16,416 2,000 2,847
8th divisor 9 3 4 2 3 1 1
8th allocation 12,602 15,201 12,695 10,498 16,416 2,000 2,847
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Ruth Davidson
2 Labour Kezia Dugdale
3 Conservative Miles Briggs
4 Green Andy Wightman
5 Labour Neil Findlay
6 Liberal Democrat Alex Cole-Hamilton
7 Conservative Gordon Lindhurst

Constituencies in Lothian region

Almond Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Angela Constance 🛋 18,768 ↑2064 66.09 % ↑11.75
Labour Neil Findlay 📃 🎢 6,692 ↓4470 23.56 % ↓12.75
Conservative Stephanie Smith 2,441 ↑555 8.60 % ↑2.46
Liberal Democrat Charles Dundas 💸 497 ↓159 1.75 % ↓0.38
SNP HOLD Majority: 12,076 Swing: ↑12.25%

Edinburgh Central

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Green Alison Johnstone 📃 10,337 ↑5823 31.37 % ↑15.81
SNP Alison Dickie 8,864 ↑975 26.90 % ↓0.29
Conservative Ruth Davidson 🎢 5,530 ↑1257 16.78 % ↑2.05
Labour Sarah Boyack 📃 4,269 ↓2852 12.96 % ↓11.58
Liberal Democrat Hannah Bettsworth 3,949 ↓1268 11.98 % ↓6.00
Green GAIN from SNP Majority: 1,473 Swing: ↑8.05%

Edinburgh Eastern

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ash Denham 16,351 ↑1799 58.25 % ↑10.89
Labour Kezia Dugdale 📃 🎢 7,385 ↓4934 26.31 % ↓13.78
Conservative Nick Cook 3,404 ↑774 12.13 % ↑3.57
Liberal Democrat Cos D'Inverno 💸 929 ↓298 3.31 % ↓0.68
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,966 Swing: ↑12.34%

Edinburgh Northern & Leith

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ben Macpherson 13,779 ↑1516 50.24 % ↑10.53
Labour Lesley Hinds 7,709 ↓5149 28.11 % ↓13.52
Conservative Iain McGill 3,790 ↑862 13.82 % ↑4.34
Liberal Democrat Martin Veart 2,146 ↓690 7.83 % ↓1.35
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 6,070 Swing: ↑12.02%

Edinburgh Pentlands

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gordon MacDonald 🛋 12,581 ↑1384 41.03 % ↑3.77
Conservative Gordon Lindhurst 🎢 12,217 ↑2778 39.84 % ↑8.43
Labour Blair Heary 4,792 ↓3201 15.63 % ↓10.97
Liberal Democrat Emma Farthing-Sykes 💸 1,075 ↓345 3.50 % ↓1.23
SNP HOLD Majority: 364 Swing: ↓2.33%

Edinburgh Southern

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jim Eadie 🛋 11,176 ↑1229 35.87 % ↑6.44
Conservative Miles Briggs 🎢 8,151 ↑1853 26.16 % ↑7.52
Liberal Democrat Pramod Subbaraman 6,280 ↓2017 20.16 % ↓4.39
Labour Daniel Johnston 5,548 ↓3706 17.81 % ↓9.57
SNP HOLD Majority: 3,025 Swing: ↓0.54%

Edinburgh Western

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Toni Giugliano 13,444 ↑1479 42.96 % ↑7.19
Liberal Democrat Alex Cole-Hamilton 🎢 7,021 ↓2255 22.44 % ↓5.29
Conservative Sandy Batho 6,532 ↑1485 20.87 % ↑5.78
Labour Cat Headley 4,295 ↓2869 13.73 % ↓7.69
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,423 Swing: ↑6.24%

Linlithgow

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Fiona Hyslop 🛋 19,131 ↑2104 61.56 % ↑11.75
Labour Angela Boyd Moohan 7,755 ↓5181 24.95 % ↓12.89
Conservative Charles Kennedy 3,425 ↑779 11.02 % ↑3.28
Liberal Democrat Dan Farthing-Sykes 💸 768 ↓247 2.47 % ↓0.50
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,376 Swing: ↑12.32%

Midlothian North & Musselburgh

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Colin Beattie 🛋 15,819 ↑1740 59.25 % ↑12.03
Labour Bernard Harkins 6,644 ↓4439 24.88 % ↓12.29
Conservative Jeremy Balfour 3,289 ↑748 12.32 % ↑3.80
Liberal Democrat Jacquie Bell 💸 949 ↓305 3.55 % ↓0.66
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,175 Swing: ↑12.16%