Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster
Ipsos MORI/STV, 27th April 2016
These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Lothian region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Ipsos MORI and published by STV on 27th April.
There’s more information about how we make this work here.
Our forecast
Lothian: full results
SNP | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | RISE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote share | 39.81 % | 16.01 % | 17.82 % | 7.37 % | 17.29 % | 0.70 % | 1.00 % |
Constituency seats | 8 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — |
Votes | 113,421 | 45,604 | 50,780 | 20,995 | 49,247 | 2,000 | 2,847 |
1st divisor | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
1st allocation | 12,602 | 45,604 | 50,780 | 20,995 | 24,624 | 2,000 | 2,847 |
2nd divisor | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
2nd allocation | 12,602 | 45,604 | 25,390 | 20,995 | 24,624 | 2,000 | 2,847 |
3rd divisor | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
3rd allocation | 12,602 | 22,802 | 25,390 | 20,995 | 24,624 | 2,000 | 2,847 |
4th divisor | 9 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
4th allocation | 12,602 | 22,802 | 16,927 | 20,995 | 24,624 | 2,000 | 2,847 |
5th divisor | 9 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
5th allocation | 12,602 | 22,802 | 16,927 | 20,995 | 16,416 | 2,000 | 2,847 |
6th divisor | 9 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
6th allocation | 12,602 | 15,201 | 16,927 | 20,995 | 16,416 | 2,000 | 2,847 |
7th divisor | 9 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
7th allocation | 12,602 | 15,201 | 16,927 | 10,498 | 16,416 | 2,000 | 2,847 |
8th divisor | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
8th allocation | 12,602 | 15,201 | 12,695 | 10,498 | 16,416 | 2,000 | 2,847 |
Party | Candidate | |
---|---|---|
1 | Conservative | Ruth Davidson |
2 | Labour | Kezia Dugdale |
3 | Conservative | Miles Briggs |
4 | Green | Andy Wightman |
5 | Labour | Neil Findlay |
6 | Liberal Democrat | Alex Cole-Hamilton |
7 | Conservative | Gordon Lindhurst |
Constituencies in Lothian region
Almond Valley
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Angela Constance 🛋 | 18,768 | ↑2064 | 66.09 % | ↑11.75 |
Labour | Neil Findlay 📃 🎢 | 6,692 | ↓4470 | 23.56 % | ↓12.75 |
Conservative | Stephanie Smith | 2,441 | ↑555 | 8.60 % | ↑2.46 |
Liberal Democrat | Charles Dundas 💸 | 497 | ↓159 | 1.75 % | ↓0.38 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 12,076 | Swing: | ↑12.25% |
Edinburgh Central
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Green | Alison Johnstone 📃 | 10,337 | ↑5823 | 31.37 % | ↑15.81 |
SNP | Alison Dickie | 8,864 | ↑975 | 26.90 % | ↓0.29 |
Conservative | Ruth Davidson 🎢 | 5,530 | ↑1257 | 16.78 % | ↑2.05 |
Labour | Sarah Boyack 📃 | 4,269 | ↓2852 | 12.96 % | ↓11.58 |
Liberal Democrat | Hannah Bettsworth | 3,949 | ↓1268 | 11.98 % | ↓6.00 |
Green GAIN from SNP | Majority: | 1,473 | Swing: | ↑8.05% |
Edinburgh Eastern
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Ash Denham | 16,351 | ↑1799 | 58.25 % | ↑10.89 |
Labour | Kezia Dugdale 📃 🎢 | 7,385 | ↓4934 | 26.31 % | ↓13.78 |
Conservative | Nick Cook | 3,404 | ↑774 | 12.13 % | ↑3.57 |
Liberal Democrat | Cos D'Inverno 💸 | 929 | ↓298 | 3.31 % | ↓0.68 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 8,966 | Swing: | ↑12.34% |
Edinburgh Northern & Leith
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Ben Macpherson | 13,779 | ↑1516 | 50.24 % | ↑10.53 |
Labour | Lesley Hinds | 7,709 | ↓5149 | 28.11 % | ↓13.52 |
Conservative | Iain McGill | 3,790 | ↑862 | 13.82 % | ↑4.34 |
Liberal Democrat | Martin Veart | 2,146 | ↓690 | 7.83 % | ↓1.35 |
SNP GAIN from Labour | Majority: | 6,070 | Swing: | ↑12.02% |
Edinburgh Pentlands
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Gordon MacDonald 🛋 | 12,581 | ↑1384 | 41.03 % | ↑3.77 |
Conservative | Gordon Lindhurst 🎢 | 12,217 | ↑2778 | 39.84 % | ↑8.43 |
Labour | Blair Heary | 4,792 | ↓3201 | 15.63 % | ↓10.97 |
Liberal Democrat | Emma Farthing-Sykes 💸 | 1,075 | ↓345 | 3.50 % | ↓1.23 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 364 | Swing: | ↓2.33% |
Edinburgh Southern
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Jim Eadie 🛋 | 11,176 | ↑1229 | 35.87 % | ↑6.44 |
Conservative | Miles Briggs 🎢 | 8,151 | ↑1853 | 26.16 % | ↑7.52 |
Liberal Democrat | Pramod Subbaraman | 6,280 | ↓2017 | 20.16 % | ↓4.39 |
Labour | Daniel Johnston | 5,548 | ↓3706 | 17.81 % | ↓9.57 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 3,025 | Swing: | ↓0.54% |
Edinburgh Western
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Toni Giugliano | 13,444 | ↑1479 | 42.96 % | ↑7.19 |
Liberal Democrat | Alex Cole-Hamilton 🎢 | 7,021 | ↓2255 | 22.44 % | ↓5.29 |
Conservative | Sandy Batho | 6,532 | ↑1485 | 20.87 % | ↑5.78 |
Labour | Cat Headley | 4,295 | ↓2869 | 13.73 % | ↓7.69 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 6,423 | Swing: | ↑6.24% |
Linlithgow
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Fiona Hyslop 🛋 | 19,131 | ↑2104 | 61.56 % | ↑11.75 |
Labour | Angela Boyd Moohan | 7,755 | ↓5181 | 24.95 % | ↓12.89 |
Conservative | Charles Kennedy | 3,425 | ↑779 | 11.02 % | ↑3.28 |
Liberal Democrat | Dan Farthing-Sykes 💸 | 768 | ↓247 | 2.47 % | ↓0.50 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 11,376 | Swing: | ↑12.32% |
Midlothian North & Musselburgh
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Colin Beattie 🛋 | 15,819 | ↑1740 | 59.25 % | ↑12.03 |
Labour | Bernard Harkins | 6,644 | ↓4439 | 24.88 % | ↓12.29 |
Conservative | Jeremy Balfour | 3,289 | ↑748 | 12.32 % | ↑3.80 |
Liberal Democrat | Jacquie Bell 💸 | 949 | ↓305 | 3.55 % | ↓0.66 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 9,175 | Swing: | ↑12.16% |