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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Ipsos MORI/STV, 27th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Mid Scotland and Fife region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Ipsos MORI and published by STV on 27th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑5.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓12.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑4.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑4.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓9.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑6.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑1.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑5.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑0.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↑0.58
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

Mid Scotland and Fife: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 44.58 % 15.61 % 20.95 % 7.60 % 9.34 % 1.16 % 0.75 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 119,287 41,776 56,069 20,342 24,993 3,115 2,007
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,929 41,776 56,069 20,342 24,993 3,115 2,007
2nd divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,929 41,776 28,035 20,342 24,993 3,115 2,007
3rd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,929 20,888 28,035 20,342 24,993 3,115 2,007
4th divisor 10 2 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,929 20,888 18,690 20,342 24,993 3,115 2,007
5th divisor 10 2 3 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 11,929 20,888 18,690 20,342 12,497 3,115 2,007
6th divisor 10 3 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 11,929 13,925 18,690 20,342 12,497 3,115 2,007
7th divisor 10 3 3 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 11,929 13,925 18,690 10,171 12,497 3,115 2,007
8th divisor 10 3 4 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 11,929 13,925 14,017 10,171 12,497 3,115 2,007
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Murdo Fraser
2 Labour Alex Rowley
3 Conservative Liz Smith
4 Green Mark Ruskell
5 Labour Claire Baker
6 Liberal Democrat Willie Rennie
7 Conservative Dean Lockhart

Constituencies in Mid Scotland and Fife region

Clackmannanshire & Dunblane

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Keith Brown 🛋 14,891 ↑1638 57.33 % ↑8.99
Labour Craig Miller 5,782 ↓3862 22.26 % ↓12.92
Conservative Alexander Stewart 4,531 ↑1030 17.45 % ↑4.68
Liberal Democrat Christopher McKinlay 💸 770 ↓248 2.97 % ↓0.74
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,109 Swing: ↑10.96%

Cowdenbeath

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Annabelle Ewing 📃 11,999 ↑1320 53.99 % ↑12.39
Labour Alex Rowley 🎢 7,150 ↓4776 32.17 % ↓14.29
Conservative Dave Dempsey 2,319 ↑527 10.44 % ↑3.46
Liberal Democrat Bryn Jones 💸 755 ↓242 3.40 % ↓0.48
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,849 Swing: ↑13.34%

Dunfermline

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Shirley-Anne Somerville 12,371 ↑1361 48.14 % ↑10.56
Labour Cara Hilton 6,247 ↓4173 24.31 % ↓11.25
Liberal Democrat James Calder 4,372 ↓1404 17.01 % ↓2.70
Conservative James Reekie 2,709 ↑616 10.54 % ↑3.40
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,124 Swing: ↑10.91%

Kirkcaldy

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP David Torrance 🛋 14,134 ↑1555 57.03 % ↑11.79
Labour Claire Baker 🎢 7,432 ↓4965 29.99 % ↓14.60
Conservative Martin Laidlaw 2,598 ↑591 10.48 % ↑3.26
Liberal Democrat Lauren Jones 💸 621 ↓199 2.50 % ↓0.45
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,702 Swing: ↑13.20%

Mid Fife & Glenrothes

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jenny Gilruth 15,462 ↑1701 64.84 % ↑12.54
Labour Kay Morrison 5,739 ↓3834 24.07 % ↓12.31
Conservative Alex Stewart-Clark 2,169 ↑493 9.10 % ↑2.73
Liberal Democrat Jane-Ann Liston 💸 477 ↓153 2.00 % ↓0.39
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,723 Swing: ↑12.43%

North East Fife

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Rod Campbell 12,392 ↑1363 43.92 % ↑6.76
Conservative Huw Bell 7,271 ↑1653 25.77 % ↑6.84
Liberal Democrat Willie Rennie 📃 🎢 6,386 ↓2051 22.63 % ↓5.80
Labour Rosalind Garton 2,166 ↓1447 7.68 % ↓4.49
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,121 Swing: ↓0.04%

Perthshire North

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP John Swinney 🛋 20,471 ↑2252 61.74 % ↑0.91
Conservative Murdo Fraser 📃 🎢 10,181 ↑2315 30.70 % ↑4.44
Labour Anna McEwan 💸 1,602 ↓1070 4.83 % ↓4.09
Liberal Democrat Peter Barrett 💸 905 ↓291 2.73 % ↓1.26
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,290 Swing: ↓1.77%

Perthshire South & Kinross-shire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Roseanna Cunningham 🛋 18,059 ↑1986 53.62 % ↑2.13
Conservative Liz Smith 🎢 11,528 ↑2621 34.23 % ↑5.70
Labour Scott Nicholson 2,386 ↓1594 7.08 % ↓5.67
Liberal Democrat Willie Robertson 1,707 ↓549 5.07 % ↓2.16
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,531 Swing: ↓1.79%

Stirling

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Bruce Crawford 🛋 16,694 ↑1836 57.27 % ↑8.40
Conservative Dean Lockhart 🎢 5,967 ↑1357 20.47 % ↑5.31
Labour Rebecca Bell 5,508 ↓3680 18.90 % ↓11.32
Liberal Democrat Elisabeth Wilson 💸 981 ↓315 3.37 % ↓0.89
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,727 Swing: ↑1.55%