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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Ipsos MORI/STV, 27th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the South region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Ipsos MORI and published by STV on 27th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑5.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓12.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑4.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑4.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓9.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑6.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑1.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑5.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑0.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↑0.58
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

South: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 40.12 % 15.67 % 28.71 % 6.98 % 6.71 % 1.22 % 0.58 %
Constituency seats 5 4
Votes 116,812 45,637 83,589 20,333 19,545 3,560 1,678
1st divisor 6 1 5 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 19,469 45,637 16,718 20,333 19,545 3,560 1,678
2nd divisor 6 2 5 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 19,469 22,819 16,718 20,333 19,545 3,560 1,678
3rd divisor 6 3 5 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 19,469 15,212 16,718 20,333 19,545 3,560 1,678
4th divisor 6 3 5 2 1 1 1
4th allocation 19,469 15,212 16,718 10,167 19,545 3,560 1,678
5th divisor 6 3 5 2 2 1 1
5th allocation 19,469 15,212 16,718 10,167 9,773 3,560 1,678
6th divisor 7 3 5 2 2 1 1
6th allocation 16,687 15,212 16,718 10,167 9,773 3,560 1,678
7th divisor 7 3 6 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 16,687 15,212 13,932 10,167 9,773 3,560 1,678
8th divisor 8 3 6 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 14,602 15,212 13,932 10,167 9,773 3,560 1,678
Party Candidate
1 Labour Iain Gray
2 Labour Claudia Beamish
3 Liberal Democrat Jim Hume
4 Green Sarah Beattie-Smith
5 SNP Joan McAlpine
6 Conservative Rachael Hamilton
7 SNP Emma Harper

Constituencies in South region

Ayr

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative John Scott 🛋 16,822 ↑3825 47.55 % ↑8.61
SNP Jennifer Dunn 13,353 ↑1469 37.74 % ↑2.13
Labour Brian McGinley 4,664 ↓3115 13.18 % ↓10.13
Liberal Democrat Robbie Simpson 💸 540 ↓173 1.53 % ↓0.61
Conservative HOLD Majority: 3,469 Swing: ↑3.24%

Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jeane Freeman 14,888 ↑1638 54.85 % ↑8.69
Labour Carol Mochan 6,396 ↓4273 23.57 % ↓13.60
Conservative Lee Lyons 5,384 ↑1224 19.84 % ↑5.35
Liberal Democrat Dawud Islam 💸 472 ↓152 1.74 % ↓0.43
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,492 Swing: ↑11.14%

Clydesdale

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Aileen Campbell 🛋 16,418 ↑1806 57.57 % ↑8.76
Labour Claudia Beamish 📃 🎢 6,233 ↓4163 21.86 % ↓12.87
Conservative Alex Allison 5,141 ↑1169 18.03 % ↑4.76
Liberal Democrat Fraser Grieve 💸 724 ↓233 2.54 % ↓0.66
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,185 Swing: ↑10.81%

Dumfriesshire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Oliver Mundell 12,254 ↑2786 40.42 % ↑10.74
SNP Joan McAlpine 📃 🎢 9,420 ↑1036 31.07 % ↑4.78
Labour Elaine Murray 🛋 7,568 ↓5056 24.96 % ↓14.62
Liberal Democrat Richard Brodie 💸 1,074 ↓345 3.54 % ↓0.91
Conservative GAIN from Labour Majority: 2,834 Swing: ↑2.98%

East Lothian

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP DJ Johnston-Smith 13,916 ↑1531 46.70 % ↑8.21
Labour Iain Gray 🛋 🎢 7,515 ↓5021 25.22 % ↓13.74
Conservative Rachael Hamilton 🎢 6,917 ↑1573 23.21 % ↑6.60
Liberal Democrat Ettie Spencer 💸 1,447 ↓465 4.86 % ↓1.08
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 6,401 Swing: ↑10.98%

Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative John Lamont 🛋 16,739 ↑3806 54.27 % ↑9.39
SNP Paul Wheelhouse 📃 8,538 ↑939 27.68 % ↑1.31
Liberal Democrat Jim Hume 📃 🎢 3,777 ↓1213 12.24 % ↓5.08
Labour Barrie Cunning 1,790 ↓1196 5.80 % ↓4.56
Conservative HOLD Majority: 8,201 Swing: ↑4.04%

Galloway & West Dumfries

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Finlay Carson 14,329 ↑3258 46.01 % ↑9.10
SNP Aileen McLeod 📃 11,471 ↑1262 36.83 % ↑2.80
Labour Fiona O'Donnell 4,769 ↓3185 15.31 % ↓11.21
Liberal Democrat Andrew Metcalf 💸 577 ↓186 1.85 % ↓0.69
Conservative HOLD Majority: 2,858 Swing: ↑3.15%

Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Willie Coffey 🛋 19,061 ↑2097 62.73 % ↑9.48
Labour Dave Meechan 6,577 ↓4394 21.65 % ↓12.79
Conservative Brian Whittle 4,283 ↑974 14.09 % ↑3.70
Liberal Democrat Rebecca Plenderleith 💸 465 ↓149 1.53 % ↓0.40
SNP HOLD Majority: 12,484 Swing: ↑11.13%

Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Christine Grahame 🛋 15,567 ↑1712 51.28 % ↑7.77
Liberal Democrat Kris Chapman 6,760 ↓2171 22.27 % ↓5.78
Conservative Michelle Ballantyne 4,844 ↑1101 15.96 % ↑4.20
Labour Fiona Dugdale 3,185 ↓2127 10.49 % ↓6.19
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,807 Swing: ↑6.78%