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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Ipsos MORI/STV, 27th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the West region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Ipsos MORI and published by STV on 27th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑5.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓12.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑4.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑4.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓9.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑6.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑1.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑5.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑0.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↑0.58
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

West: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 43.91 % 21.90 % 20.27 % 4.51 % 7.06 % 0.80 % 1.54 %
Constituency seats 9 1
Votes 119,915 59,816 55,357 12,321 19,268 2,195 4,217
1st divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,992 59,816 27,679 12,321 19,268 2,195 4,217
2nd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,992 29,908 27,679 12,321 19,268 2,195 4,217
3rd divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,992 19,939 27,679 12,321 19,268 2,195 4,217
4th divisor 10 3 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,992 19,939 18,452 12,321 19,268 2,195 4,217
5th divisor 10 4 3 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 11,992 14,954 18,452 12,321 19,268 2,195 4,217
6th divisor 10 4 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 11,992 14,954 18,452 12,321 9,634 2,195 4,217
7th divisor 10 4 4 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 11,992 14,954 13,839 12,321 9,634 2,195 4,217
8th divisor 10 5 4 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 11,992 11,963 13,839 12,321 9,634 2,195 4,217
Party Candidate
1 Labour Jackie Baillie
2 Labour Neil Bibby
3 Conservative Jamie Greene
4 Labour Mary Fee
5 Green Ross Greer
6 Conservative Maurice Golden
7 Labour Ken Macintosh

Constituencies in West region

Clydebank & Milngavie

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gil Paterson 🛋 13,795 ↑1517 53.81 % ↑10.53
Labour Gail Casey 6,933 ↓4631 27.04 % ↓13.72
Conservative Maurice Golden 🎢 3,570 ↑812 13.92 % ↑4.20
Liberal Democrat Frank Bowles 1,339 ↓430 5.22 % ↓1.02
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,862 Swing: ↑12.12%

Cunninghame North

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Kenneth Gibson 🛋 17,460 ↑1921 60.75 % ↑8.14
Labour Johanna Baxter 5,649 ↓3773 19.66 % ↓12.24
Conservative Jamie Greene 🎢 5,218 ↑1186 18.16 % ↑4.51
Liberal Democrat Charity Pierce 💸 411 ↓132 1.43 % ↓0.41
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,811 Swing: ↑10.19%

Cunninghame South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ruth Maguire 12,352 ↑1359 60.63 % ↑10.79
Labour Joe Cullinane 5,183 ↓3462 25.44 % ↓13.76
Conservative William McClure 2,422 ↑551 11.89 % ↑3.41
Liberal Democrat Ruby Kirkwood 💸 414 ↓133 2.03 % ↓0.45
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,169 Swing: ↑12.27%

Dumbarton

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gail Robertson 12,273 ↑1350 49.39 % ↑11.07
Labour Jackie Baillie 🛋 🎢 7,531 ↓5031 30.31 % ↓13.75
Conservative Maurice Corry 4,394 ↑999 17.68 % ↑5.77
Liberal Democrat Aileen Morton 💸 649 ↓209 2.61 % ↓0.40
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,742 Swing: ↑12.41%

Eastwood

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Jackson Carlaw 📃 13,784 ↑3134 44.83 % ↑11.47
SNP Stewart Maxwell 📃 8,738 ↑961 28.42 % ↑4.06
Labour Ken Macintosh 🛋 🎢 7,591 ↓5071 24.69 % ↓14.97
Liberal Democrat John Duncan 💸 632 ↓203 2.06 % ↓0.56
Conservative GAIN from Labour Majority: 5,046 Swing: ↑3.71%

Greenock & Inverclyde

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Stuart McMillan 📃 13,344 ↑1468 53.73 % ↑11.63
Labour Siobhan McCready 7,426 ↓4961 29.90 % ↓14.01
Conservative Graeme Brooks 2,603 ↑592 10.48 % ↑3.35
Liberal Democrat John Watson 1,464 ↓470 5.89 % ↓0.97
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 5,918 Swing: ↑12.82%

Paisley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP George Adam 🛋 12,262 ↑1349 53.57 % ↑10.92
Labour Neil Bibby 📃 🎢 6,394 ↓4271 27.93 % ↓13.75
Conservative Paul Masterton 2,885 ↑656 12.60 % ↑3.89
Liberal Democrat Eileen McCartin 1,349 ↓434 5.90 % ↓1.07
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,868 Swing: ↑12.34%

Renfrewshire North & West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Derek Mackay 12,933 ↑1423 48.96 % ↑7.10
Conservative David Wilson 7,104 ↑1615 26.89 % ↑6.93
Labour Mary Fee 📃 🎢 5,963 ↓3983 22.57 % ↓13.60
Liberal Democrat Rod Ackland 💸 416 ↓134 1.58 % ↓0.42
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,829 Swing: ↑0.08%

Renfrewshire South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Tom Arthur 11,636 ↑1280 49.11 % ↑10.62
Labour Paul O'Kane 7,753 ↓5180 32.72 % ↓15.34
Conservative Ann Leblond 3,775 ↑858 15.93 % ↑5.09
Liberal Democrat Tristan Gray 💸 531 ↓171 2.24 % ↓0.37
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,883 Swing: ↑12.98%

Strathkelvin & Bearsden

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Rona Mackay 16,020 ↑1762 51.35 % ↑9.11
Labour Margaret McCarthy 7,468 ↓4988 23.93 % ↓12.97
Conservative Andrew Polson 5,744 ↑1306 18.41 % ↑5.26
Liberal Democrat Katy Gordon 1,968 ↓632 6.31 % ↓1.39
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,552 Swing: ↑11.04%