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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

YouGov/Times, 12th April 2016

These are our MSP forecasts for the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by YouGov and published in the Times on 12th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑4.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓10.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑4.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓2.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑4.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓0.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓4.43

Our forecast

Seats Total Constituencies Regional seats
2011 Forecast Change 2011 Forecast Change 2011 Forecast Change
SNP 69 71 ↑2 53 67 ↑14 16 4 ↓12
Labour 37 25 ↓12 15 ↓15 22 25 ↑3
Conservative 15 20 ↑5 3 5 ↑2 12 15 ↑3
Green 2 9 ↑7 2 9 ↑7
Lib Dem 5 3 ↓2 2 1 ↓1 3 2 ↓1
UKIP 1 ↑1 1 ↑1
Independent 1 ↓1 1 ↓1
Regions Constituencies
Central C                  
R              
Glasgow C                  
R              
Highlands and Islands C                
R              
Lothian C                  
R              
Mid Scotland and Fife C                  
R              
North East C                    
R              
South C                  
R              
West C                    
R              

Most marginal constituencies

Constituency Winner Margin Outcome
Edinburgh Pentlands SNP 117 HOLD over Conservative
Orkney Islands SNP 415 GAIN over Liberal Democrat
Edinburgh Central SNP 420 HOLD over Green
Shetland Islands Liberal Democrat 1,565 HOLD over SNP
Glasgow Kelvin SNP 1,882 HOLD over Green
Glasgow Provan SNP 2,115 GAIN over Labour
Coatbridge & Chryston SNP 2,280 GAIN over Labour
Edinburgh Southern SNP 2,806 HOLD over Conservative
Renfrewshire South SNP 2,838 GAIN over Labour
Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn SNP 2,916 GAIN over Labour

Narrowest regional wins

Region 7th place Next party Allocation shortfall Equivalent votes
Central SNP Conservative 234 469
Highlands and Islands Lib Dem Conservative 330 990
Mid Scotland and Fife Labour Lib Dem 1,034 1,034
Lothian Labour Conservative 954 2,862
Glasgow Green Labour 855 4,274
South Green SNP 1,034 8,276
North East Labour Conservative 2,132 8,526
West Green Labour 2,044 10,222