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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

YouGov/Times, 12th April 2016

These are our forecasts for regional MSPs in the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by YouGov and published in the Times on 12th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑4.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓10.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑4.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓2.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑4.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓0.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓4.43

Our forecast

Regions

Central C                  
R              
Glasgow C                  
R              
Highlands and Islands C                
R              
Lothian C                  
R              
Mid Scotland and Fife C                  
R              
North East C                    
R              
South C                  
R              
West C                    
R              

Central

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 52.80 % 28.43 % 10.34 % 1.52 % 4.92 % 1.98 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 110,669 59,577 21,665 3,192 10,322 4,159 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,067 59,577 21,665 3,192 10,322 4,159 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,067 29,789 21,665 3,192 10,322 4,159 0
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,067 19,859 21,665 3,192 10,322 4,159 0
4th divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,067 19,859 10,833 3,192 10,322 4,159 0
5th divisor 10 4 2 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 11,067 14,894 10,833 3,192 10,322 4,159 0
6th divisor 10 5 2 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 11,067 11,915 10,833 3,192 10,322 4,159 0
7th divisor 10 6 2 1 1 1 1
7th allocation 11,067 9,930 10,833 3,192 10,322 4,159 0
8th divisor 11 6 2 1 1 1 1
8th allocation 10,061 9,930 10,833 3,192 10,322 4,159 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Richard Leonard
2 Labour Monica Lennon
3 Conservative Margaret Mitchell
4 Labour Mark Griffin
5 Labour Elaine Smith
6 Labour Craig Martin
7 SNP Sophia Coyle

Glasgow

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 45.21 % 28.08 % 9.88 % 2.72 % 12.14 % 1.97 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 84,958 52,766 18,575 5,110 22,816 3,698 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 8,496 52,766 18,575 5,110 22,816 3,698 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 8,496 26,383 18,575 5,110 22,816 3,698 0
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 8,496 17,589 18,575 5,110 22,816 3,698 0
4th divisor 10 3 1 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 8,496 17,589 18,575 5,110 11,408 3,698 0
5th divisor 10 3 2 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 8,496 17,589 9,288 5,110 11,408 3,698 0
6th divisor 10 4 2 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 8,496 13,192 9,288 5,110 11,408 3,698 0
7th divisor 10 5 2 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 8,496 10,553 9,288 5,110 11,408 3,698 0
8th divisor 10 5 2 1 3 1 1
8th allocation 8,496 10,553 9,288 5,110 7,605 3,698 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Anas Sarwar
2 Labour Johann Lamont
3 Green Patrick Harvie
4 Conservative Adam Tomkins
5 Labour James Kelly
6 Labour Pauline McNeill
7 Green Zara Kitson

Highlands and Islands

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 47.09 % 10.13 % 16.44 % 11.32 % 9.00 % 6.01 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 7 1
Votes 86,975 18,701 30,368 20,905 16,627 11,104 0
1st divisor 8 1 1 2 1 1 1
1st allocation 10,872 18,701 30,368 10,453 16,627 11,104 0
2nd divisor 8 1 2 2 1 1 1
2nd allocation 10,872 18,701 15,184 10,453 16,627 11,104 0
3rd divisor 8 2 2 2 1 1 1
3rd allocation 10,872 9,351 15,184 10,453 16,627 11,104 0
4th divisor 8 2 2 2 2 1 1
4th allocation 10,872 9,351 15,184 10,453 8,314 11,104 0
5th divisor 8 2 3 2 2 1 1
5th allocation 10,872 9,351 10,123 10,453 8,314 11,104 0
6th divisor 8 2 3 2 2 2 1
6th allocation 10,872 9,351 10,123 10,453 8,314 5,552 0
7th divisor 9 2 3 2 2 2 1
7th allocation 9,664 9,351 10,123 10,453 8,314 5,552 0
8th divisor 9 2 3 3 2 2 1
8th allocation 9,664 9,351 10,123 6,968 8,314 5,552 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Douglas Ross
2 Labour Rhoda Grant
3 Green John Finnie
4 Conservative Edward Mountain
5 UKIP David Coburn
6 SNP Maree Todd
7 Liberal Democrat Jamie Stone

Lothian

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 41.56 % 18.68 % 17.63 % 5.50 % 14.44 % 2.20 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 113,421 50,969 48,108 14,997 39,398 6,000 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,342 50,969 48,108 14,997 39,398 6,000 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,342 25,485 48,108 14,997 39,398 6,000 0
3rd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,342 25,485 24,054 14,997 39,398 6,000 0
4th divisor 10 2 2 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 11,342 25,485 24,054 14,997 19,699 6,000 0
5th divisor 10 3 2 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 11,342 16,990 24,054 14,997 19,699 6,000 0
6th divisor 10 3 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 11,342 16,990 16,036 14,997 19,699 6,000 0
7th divisor 10 3 3 1 3 1 1
7th allocation 11,342 16,990 16,036 14,997 13,133 6,000 0
8th divisor 10 4 3 1 3 1 1
8th allocation 11,342 12,742 16,036 14,997 13,133 6,000 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Kezia Dugdale
2 Conservative Ruth Davidson
3 Green Alison Johnstone
4 Labour Neil Findlay
5 Conservative Miles Briggs
6 Green Andy Wightman
7 Labour Sarah Boyack

Mid Scotland and Fife

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 45.36 % 17.76 % 20.20 % 5.53 % 7.60 % 3.55 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 119,287 46,691 53,118 14,530 19,995 9,345 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,929 46,691 53,118 14,530 19,995 9,345 0
2nd divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,929 46,691 26,559 14,530 19,995 9,345 0
3rd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,929 23,346 26,559 14,530 19,995 9,345 0
4th divisor 10 2 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,929 23,346 17,706 14,530 19,995 9,345 0
5th divisor 10 3 3 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 11,929 15,564 17,706 14,530 19,995 9,345 0
6th divisor 10 3 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 11,929 15,564 17,706 14,530 9,998 9,345 0
7th divisor 10 3 4 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 11,929 15,564 13,280 14,530 9,998 9,345 0
8th divisor 10 4 4 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 11,929 11,673 13,280 14,530 9,998 9,345 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Murdo Fraser
2 Labour Alex Rowley
3 Conservative Liz Smith
4 Labour Claire Baker
5 Green Mark Ruskell
6 Conservative Dean Lockhart
7 Labour Thomas Docherty

North East

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 52.28 % 11.52 % 19.95 % 6.35 % 6.93 % 2.96 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 10
Votes 143,880 31,713 54,900 17,488 19,066 8,157 0
1st divisor 11 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 13,080 31,713 54,900 17,488 19,066 8,157 0
2nd divisor 11 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 13,080 31,713 27,450 17,488 19,066 8,157 0
3rd divisor 11 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 13,080 15,857 27,450 17,488 19,066 8,157 0
4th divisor 11 2 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 13,080 15,857 18,300 17,488 19,066 8,157 0
5th divisor 11 2 3 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 13,080 15,857 18,300 17,488 9,533 8,157 0
6th divisor 11 2 4 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 13,080 15,857 13,725 17,488 9,533 8,157 0
7th divisor 11 2 4 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 13,080 15,857 13,725 8,744 9,533 8,157 0
8th divisor 11 3 4 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 13,080 10,571 13,725 8,744 9,533 8,157 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Alex Johnstone
2 Labour Jenny Marra
3 Conservative Alexander Burnett
4 Green Maggie Chapman
5 Conservative Ross Thomson
6 Liberal Democrat Mike Rumbles
7 Labour Lewis MacDonald

South

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 40.58 % 17.72 % 27.51 % 5.05 % 5.43 % 3.71 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 5 4
Votes 116,812 51,006 79,189 14,523 15,636 10,679 0
1st divisor 6 1 5 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 19,469 51,006 15,838 14,523 15,636 10,679 0
2nd divisor 6 2 5 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 19,469 25,503 15,838 14,523 15,636 10,679 0
3rd divisor 6 3 5 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 19,469 17,002 15,838 14,523 15,636 10,679 0
4th divisor 7 3 5 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 16,687 17,002 15,838 14,523 15,636 10,679 0
5th divisor 7 4 5 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 16,687 12,752 15,838 14,523 15,636 10,679 0
6th divisor 8 4 5 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 14,602 12,752 15,838 14,523 15,636 10,679 0
7th divisor 8 4 6 1 1 1 1
7th allocation 14,602 12,752 13,198 14,523 15,636 10,679 0
8th divisor 8 4 6 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 14,602 12,752 13,198 14,523 7,818 10,679 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Iain Gray
2 Labour Claudia Beamish
3 SNP Joan McAlpine
4 Labour Colin Smyth
5 SNP Emma Harper
6 Conservative Rachael Hamilton
7 Green Sarah Beattie-Smith

West

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 44.41 % 24.76 % 19.42 % 3.26 % 5.71 % 2.44 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9 1
Votes 119,915 66,854 52,444 8,801 15,415 6,586 0
1st divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,992 66,854 26,222 8,801 15,415 6,586 0
2nd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,992 33,427 26,222 8,801 15,415 6,586 0
3rd divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,992 22,285 26,222 8,801 15,415 6,586 0
4th divisor 10 3 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,992 22,285 17,481 8,801 15,415 6,586 0
5th divisor 10 4 3 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 11,992 16,714 17,481 8,801 15,415 6,586 0
6th divisor 10 4 4 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 11,992 16,714 13,111 8,801 15,415 6,586 0
7th divisor 10 5 4 1 1 1 1
7th allocation 11,992 13,371 13,111 8,801 15,415 6,586 0
8th divisor 10 5 4 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 11,992 13,371 13,111 8,801 7,708 6,586 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Jackie Baillie
2 Labour Neil Bibby
3 Conservative Jamie Greene
4 Labour Mary Fee
5 Conservative Maurice Golden
6 Labour Ken Macintosh
7 Green Ross Greer