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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

YouGov/Times, 12th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Central region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by YouGov and published in the Times on 12th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑4.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓10.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑4.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓2.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑4.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓0.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓4.43

Our forecast

Central: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 52.80 % 28.43 % 10.34 % 1.52 % 4.92 % 1.98 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 110,669 59,577 21,665 3,192 10,322 4,159 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,067 59,577 21,665 3,192 10,322 4,159 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,067 29,789 21,665 3,192 10,322 4,159 0
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,067 19,859 21,665 3,192 10,322 4,159 0
4th divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,067 19,859 10,833 3,192 10,322 4,159 0
5th divisor 10 4 2 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 11,067 14,894 10,833 3,192 10,322 4,159 0
6th divisor 10 5 2 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 11,067 11,915 10,833 3,192 10,322 4,159 0
7th divisor 10 6 2 1 1 1 1
7th allocation 11,067 9,930 10,833 3,192 10,322 4,159 0
8th divisor 11 6 2 1 1 1 1
8th allocation 10,061 9,930 10,833 3,192 10,322 4,159 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Richard Leonard
2 Labour Monica Lennon
3 Conservative Margaret Mitchell
4 Labour Mark Griffin
5 Labour Elaine Smith
6 Labour Craig Martin
7 SNP Sophia Coyle

Constituencies in Central region

Airdrie & Shotts

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Alex Neil 🛋 13,201 ↑1217 60.12 % ↑9.97
Labour Richard Leonard 🎢 6,615 ↓3368 30.13 % ↓11.65
Conservative Eric Holford 1,807 ↑411 8.23 % ↑2.39
Liberal Democrat Louise Young 💸 335 ↓196 1.53 % ↓0.69
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,586 Swing: ↑10.81%

Coatbridge & Chryston

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Fulton MacGregor 10,184 ↑939 48.77 % ↑9.06
Labour Elaine Smith 🛋 🎢 7,904 ↓4024 37.85 % ↓13.39
Conservative Robyn Halbert 1,693 ↑385 8.11 % ↑2.49
Green John Wilson 💸 📃 909 ↑413 4.35 % ↑2.22
Liberal Democrat Jenni Lang 💸 190 ↓112 0.91 % ↓0.39
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 2,280 Swing: ↑11.23%

Cumbernauld & Kilsyth

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jamie Hepburn 🛋 14,976 ↑1381 63.95 % ↑10.12
Labour Mark Griffin 📃 🎢 6,716 ↓3420 28.68 % ↓11.46
Conservative Anthony Newman 1,496 ↑340 6.39 % ↑1.81
Liberal Democrat Irene Lang 💸 231 ↓136 0.99 % ↓0.46
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,260 Swing: ↑10.79%

East Kilbride

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Linda Fabiani 🛋 15,817 ↑1458 58.02 % ↑10.01
Labour LizAnne Handibode 8,223 ↓4187 30.17 % ↓11.32
Conservative Graham Simpson 2,925 ↑665 10.73 % ↑3.17
Liberal Democrat Paul McGarry 💸 295 ↓173 1.08 % ↓0.48
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,594 Swing: ↑10.66%

Falkirk East

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Angus MacDonald 🛋 15,755 ↑1453 59.64 % ↑8.87
Labour Craig Martin 🎢 7,134 ↓3633 27.01 % ↓11.21
Conservative Callum Laidlaw 3,070 ↑698 11.62 % ↑3.20
Liberal Democrat Austin Reid 💸 459 ↓268 1.74 % ↓0.84
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,621 Swing: ↑10.04%

Falkirk West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Michael Matheson 🛋 17,192 ↑1585 64.07 % ↑8.72
Labour Mandy Telford 6,535 ↓3327 24.35 % ↓10.62
Conservative Alison Harris 2,700 ↑614 10.06 % ↑2.66
Liberal Democrat Gillian Cole-Hamilton 💸 406 ↓238 1.51 % ↓0.77
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,657 Swing: ↑9.67%

Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Christina McKelvie 13,441 ↑1239 56.61 % ↑8.48
Labour Margaret McCulloch 📃 6,619 ↓3370 27.87 % ↓11.53
Conservative Margaret Mitchell 📃 🎢 3,296 ↑749 13.88 % ↑3.83
Liberal Democrat Eileen Baxendale 💸 389 ↓227 1.64 % ↓0.79
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,822 Swing: ↑10.00%

Motherwell & Wishaw

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Clare Adamson 11,154 ↑1028 53.75 % ↑12.34
Labour John Pentland 🛋 7,099 ↓3614 34.21 % ↓9.60
Conservative Megan Gallacher 2,269 ↑516 10.93 % ↑3.76
Liberal Democrat Yvonne Finlayson 💸 231 ↓136 1.12 % ↓0.38
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,055 Swing: ↑10.97%

Uddingston & Bellshill

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Richard Lyle 📃 11,916 ↑1099 52.65 % ↑9.37
Labour Michael McMahon 🛋 7,641 ↓3890 33.76 % ↓12.37
Conservative Andrew Morrison 2,740 ↑623 12.11 % ↑3.64
Liberal Democrat Kaitey Blair 💸 334 ↓196 1.48 % ↓0.64
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,275 Swing: ↑10.87%