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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

YouGov/Times, 12th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Glasgow region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by YouGov and published in the Times on 12th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑4.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓10.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑4.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓2.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑4.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓0.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓4.43

Our forecast

Glasgow: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 45.21 % 28.08 % 9.88 % 2.72 % 12.14 % 1.97 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 84,958 52,766 18,575 5,110 22,816 3,698 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 8,496 52,766 18,575 5,110 22,816 3,698 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 8,496 26,383 18,575 5,110 22,816 3,698 0
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 8,496 17,589 18,575 5,110 22,816 3,698 0
4th divisor 10 3 1 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 8,496 17,589 18,575 5,110 11,408 3,698 0
5th divisor 10 3 2 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 8,496 17,589 9,288 5,110 11,408 3,698 0
6th divisor 10 4 2 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 8,496 13,192 9,288 5,110 11,408 3,698 0
7th divisor 10 5 2 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 8,496 10,553 9,288 5,110 11,408 3,698 0
8th divisor 10 5 2 1 3 1 1
8th allocation 8,496 10,553 9,288 5,110 7,605 3,698 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Anas Sarwar
2 Labour Johann Lamont
3 Green Patrick Harvie
4 Conservative Adam Tomkins
5 Labour James Kelly
6 Labour Pauline McNeill
7 Green Zara Kitson

Constituencies in Glasgow region

Glasgow Anniesland

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Bill Kidd 🛋 11,378 ↑1049 53.04 % ↑9.85
Labour Bill Butler 6,840 ↓3482 31.88 % ↓11.28
Conservative Adam Tomkins 🎢 2,603 ↑592 12.13 % ↑3.72
Liberal Democrat James Spiers 💸 631 ↓369 2.94 % ↓1.24
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,538 Swing: ↑10.56%

Glasgow Cathcart

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP James Dornan 🛋 13,128 ↑1210 55.18 % ↑9.73
Labour Soryia Siddique 6,842 ↓3484 28.76 % ↓10.62
Conservative Kyle Thornton 3,119 ↑709 13.11 % ↑3.92
Liberal Democrat Margot Clark 💸 705 ↓413 2.96 % ↓1.30
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,286 Swing: ↑10.18%

Glasgow Kelvin

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Sandra White 🛋 10,000 ↑922 38.11 % ↑0.51
Green Patrick Harvie 📃 🎢 8,118 ↑3687 30.94 % ↑12.59
Labour Michael Shanks 5,086 ↓2589 19.38 % ↓12.41
Conservative Sheila Mechan 2,284 ↑519 8.71 % ↑1.40
Liberal Democrat Carole Ford 💸 753 ↓441 2.87 % ↓2.08
SNP HOLD Majority: 1,882 Swing: ↓6.04%

Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Bob Doris 📃 9,465 ↑873 52.23 % ↑10.38
Labour Patricia Ferguson 🛋 6,549 ↓3335 36.14 % ↓12.00
Conservative John Anderson 1,582 ↑360 8.73 % ↑2.78
Liberal Democrat James Harrison 💸 525 ↓308 2.90 % ↓1.16
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 2,916 Swing: ↑11.19%

Glasgow Pollok

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Humza Yousaf 📃 11,293 ↑1041 55.12 % ↑10.38
Labour Johann Lamont 🛋 🎢 7,206 ↓3669 35.17 % ↓12.29
Conservative Thomas Haddow 1,680 ↑382 8.20 % ↑2.54
Liberal Democrat Isabel Nelson 💸 309 ↓181 1.51 % ↓0.63
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,087 Swing: ↑11.34%

Glasgow Provan

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ivan McKee 8,766 ↑808 52.55 % ↑11.07
Labour Paul Martin 🛋 6,651 ↓3386 39.87 % ↓12.45
Conservative Annie Wells 1,006 ↑229 6.03 % ↑1.98
Liberal Democrat Thomas Coleman 💸 260 ↓153 1.56 % ↓0.59
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 2,115 Swing: ↑11.76%

Glasgow Shettleston

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP John Mason 🛋 11,157 ↑1029 58.05 % ↑10.29
Labour Thomas Rannachan 6,323 ↓3219 32.90 % ↓12.10
Conservative Thomas Kerr 1,505 ↑342 7.83 % ↑2.35
Liberal Democrat Giovanni Caccavello 💸 234 ↓137 1.22 % ↓0.53
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,834 Swing: ↑11.20%

Glasgow Southside

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Nicola Sturgeon 🛋 13,556 ↑1250 63.18 % ↑8.75
Labour Fariha Thomas 5,272 ↓2685 24.57 % ↓10.63
Conservative Graham Hutchison 2,243 ↑510 10.45 % ↑2.78
Liberal Democrat Kevin Lewsey 💸 386 ↓226 1.80 % ↓0.91
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,284 Swing: ↑9.69%

Rutherglen

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Clare Haughey 11,798 ↑1088 50.15 % ↑10.63
Labour James Kelly 🛋 🎢 8,275 ↓4214 35.18 % ↓10.90
Conservative Taylor Muir 2,713 ↑617 11.53 % ↑3.80
Liberal Democrat Robert Brown 💸 740 ↓434 3.15 % ↓1.18
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,523 Swing: ↑10.77%