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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

YouGov/Times, 12th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Highlands and Islands region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by YouGov and published in the Times on 12th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑4.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓10.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑4.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓2.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑4.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓0.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓4.43

Our forecast

Highlands and Islands: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 47.09 % 10.13 % 16.44 % 11.32 % 9.00 % 6.01 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 7 1
Votes 86,975 18,701 30,368 20,905 16,627 11,104 0
1st divisor 8 1 1 2 1 1 1
1st allocation 10,872 18,701 30,368 10,453 16,627 11,104 0
2nd divisor 8 1 2 2 1 1 1
2nd allocation 10,872 18,701 15,184 10,453 16,627 11,104 0
3rd divisor 8 2 2 2 1 1 1
3rd allocation 10,872 9,351 15,184 10,453 16,627 11,104 0
4th divisor 8 2 2 2 2 1 1
4th allocation 10,872 9,351 15,184 10,453 8,314 11,104 0
5th divisor 8 2 3 2 2 1 1
5th allocation 10,872 9,351 10,123 10,453 8,314 11,104 0
6th divisor 8 2 3 2 2 2 1
6th allocation 10,872 9,351 10,123 10,453 8,314 5,552 0
7th divisor 9 2 3 2 2 2 1
7th allocation 9,664 9,351 10,123 10,453 8,314 5,552 0
8th divisor 9 2 3 3 2 2 1
8th allocation 9,664 9,351 10,123 6,968 8,314 5,552 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Douglas Ross
2 Labour Rhoda Grant
3 Green John Finnie
4 Conservative Edward Mountain
5 UKIP David Coburn
6 SNP Maree Todd
7 Liberal Democrat Jamie Stone

Constituencies in Highlands and Islands region

Argyll & Bute

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Michael Russell 🛋 14,750 ↑1360 57.32 % ↑6.75
Conservative Donald Cameron 6,273 ↑1426 24.38 % ↑6.07
Labour Mick Rice 2,678 ↓1363 10.41 % ↓4.85
Liberal Democrat Alan Reid 2,031 ↓1189 7.89 % ↓4.27
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,477 Swing: ↑0.34%

Caithness, Sutherland & Ross

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gail Ross 15,249 ↑1406 57.16 % ↑8.76
Liberal Democrat Jamie Stone 🎢 4,027 ↓2358 15.10 % ↓7.23
Conservative Struan Mackie 3,797 ↑863 14.24 % ↑3.98
Labour Leah Franchetti 3,603 ↓1835 13.51 % ↓5.50
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,222 Swing: ↑8.00%

Inverness & Nairn

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Fergus Ewing 🛋 18,583 ↑1713 60.75 % ↑9.21
Conservative Edward Mountain 🎢 4,914 ↑1117 16.06 % ↑4.46
Labour David Stewart 📃 4,721 ↓2404 15.43 % ↓6.34
Liberal Democrat Carolyn Caddick 2,373 ↓1390 7.76 % ↓3.74
SNP HOLD Majority: 13,669 Swing: ↑2.38%

Moray

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Richard Lochhead 🛋 18,525 ↑1708 63.15 % ↑4.34
Conservative Douglas Ross 🎢 7,601 ↑1728 25.91 % ↑5.37
Labour Sean Morton 2,372 ↓1208 8.09 % ↓4.43
Liberal Democrat Jamie Paterson 💸 837 ↓490 2.85 % ↓1.79
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,924 Swing: ↓0.52%

Na h-Eileanan an Iar

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Alasdair Allan 🛋 9,359 ↑863 73.69 % ↑8.39
Labour Rhoda Grant 📃 🎢 2,468 ↓1256 19.43 % ↓9.19
Conservative Ranald Fraser 729 ↑166 5.74 % ↑1.41
Liberal Democrat Ken MacLeod 💸 144 ↓84 1.13 % ↓0.62
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,891 Swing: ↑8.79%

Orkney Islands

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Donna Heddle 2,252 ↑208 42.64 % ↑17.57
Liberal Democrat Liam McArthur 🛋 1,837 ↓1075 34.79 % ↓0.93
Conservative Jamie Halcro Johnston 888 ↑202 16.82 % ↑8.40
Labour Gerry McGarvey 303 ↓155 5.75 % ↑0.13
SNP GAIN from Liberal Democrat Majority: 415 Swing: ↑9.25%

Shetland Islands

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Liberal Democrat Tavish Scott 🛋 2,814 ↓1648 57.42 % ↑9.91
SNP Danus Skene 1,249 ↑115 25.49 % ↑13.41
Conservative Cameron Smith 427 ↑97 8.71 % ↑5.20
Labour Robina Barton 411 ↓209 8.38 % ↑1.78
Liberal Democrat HOLD Majority: 1,565 Swing: ↓1.75%

Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Kate Forbes 16,234 ↑1497 56.42 % ↑10.24
Liberal Democrat Angela MacLean 6,145 ↓3597 21.36 % ↓9.16
Conservative Robbie Munro 3,668 ↑834 12.75 % ↑3.87
Labour Linda Stewart 2,725 ↓1387 9.47 % ↓3.41
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,089 Swing: ↑9.70%