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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

YouGov/Times, 12th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Lothian region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by YouGov and published in the Times on 12th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑4.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓10.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑4.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓2.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑4.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓0.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓4.43

Our forecast

Lothian: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 41.56 % 18.68 % 17.63 % 5.50 % 14.44 % 2.20 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 113,421 50,969 48,108 14,997 39,398 6,000 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,342 50,969 48,108 14,997 39,398 6,000 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,342 25,485 48,108 14,997 39,398 6,000 0
3rd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,342 25,485 24,054 14,997 39,398 6,000 0
4th divisor 10 2 2 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 11,342 25,485 24,054 14,997 19,699 6,000 0
5th divisor 10 3 2 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 11,342 16,990 24,054 14,997 19,699 6,000 0
6th divisor 10 3 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 11,342 16,990 16,036 14,997 19,699 6,000 0
7th divisor 10 3 3 1 3 1 1
7th allocation 11,342 16,990 16,036 14,997 13,133 6,000 0
8th divisor 10 4 3 1 3 1 1
8th allocation 11,342 12,742 16,036 14,997 13,133 6,000 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Kezia Dugdale
2 Conservative Ruth Davidson
3 Green Alison Johnstone
4 Labour Neil Findlay
5 Conservative Miles Briggs
6 Green Andy Wightman
7 Labour Sarah Boyack

Constituencies in Lothian region

Almond Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Angela Constance 🛋 18,400 ↑1696 64.22 % ↑9.88
Labour Neil Findlay 📃 🎢 7,396 ↓3766 25.81 % ↓10.50
Conservative Stephanie Smith 2,441 ↑555 8.52 % ↑2.38
Liberal Democrat Charles Dundas 💸 414 ↓242 1.44 % ↓0.69
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,004 Swing: ↑10.19%

Edinburgh Central

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Alison Dickie 8,690 ↑801 28.49 % ↑1.30
Green Alison Johnstone 📃 🎢 8,270 ↑3756 27.11 % ↑11.55
Conservative Ruth Davidson 🎢 5,530 ↑1257 18.13 % ↑3.40
Labour Sarah Boyack 📃 🎢 4,719 ↓2402 15.47 % ↓9.07
Liberal Democrat Hannah Bettsworth 3,290 ↓1927 10.79 % ↓7.19
SNP HOLD Majority: 420 Swing: ↓5.12%

Edinburgh Eastern

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ash Denham 16,030 ↑1478 56.50 % ↑9.14
Labour Kezia Dugdale 📃 🎢 8,163 ↓4156 28.77 % ↓11.32
Conservative Nick Cook 3,404 ↑774 12.00 % ↑3.44
Liberal Democrat Cos D'Inverno 💸 774 ↓453 2.73 % ↓1.26
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,867 Swing: ↑10.23%

Edinburgh Northern & Leith

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ben Macpherson 13,508 ↑1245 48.93 % ↑9.22
Labour Lesley Hinds 8,520 ↓4338 30.86 % ↓10.77
Conservative Iain McGill 3,790 ↑862 13.73 % ↑4.25
Liberal Democrat Martin Veart 1,789 ↓1047 6.48 % ↓2.70
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,988 Swing: ↑10.00%

Edinburgh Pentlands

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gordon MacDonald 🛋 12,334 ↑1137 40.12 % ↑2.86
Conservative Gordon Lindhurst 12,217 ↑2778 39.74 % ↑8.33
Labour Blair Heary 5,296 ↓2697 17.23 % ↓9.37
Liberal Democrat Emma Farthing-Sykes 💸 896 ↓524 2.91 % ↓1.82
SNP HOLD Majority: 117 Swing: ↓2.74%

Edinburgh Southern

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jim Eadie 🛋 10,957 ↑1010 35.96 % ↑6.53
Conservative Miles Briggs 🎢 8,151 ↑1853 26.75 % ↑8.11
Labour Daniel Johnston 6,132 ↓3122 20.12 % ↓7.26
Liberal Democrat Pramod Subbaraman 5,233 ↓3064 17.17 % ↓7.38
SNP HOLD Majority: 2,806 Swing: ↓0.79%

Edinburgh Western

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Toni Giugliano 13,180 ↑1215 43.48 % ↑7.71
Conservative Sandy Batho 6,532 ↑1485 21.55 % ↑6.46
Liberal Democrat Alex Cole-Hamilton 5,851 ↓3425 19.30 % ↓8.43
Labour Cat Headley 4,747 ↓2417 15.66 % ↓5.76
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,648 Swing: ↑0.62%

Linlithgow

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Fiona Hyslop 🛋 18,756 ↑1729 59.75 % ↑9.94
Labour Angela Boyd Moohan 8,572 ↓4364 27.30 % ↓10.54
Conservative Charles Kennedy 3,425 ↑779 10.91 % ↑3.17
Liberal Democrat Dan Farthing-Sykes 💸 640 ↓375 2.04 % ↓0.93
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,184 Swing: ↑10.24%

Midlothian North & Musselburgh

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Colin Beattie 🛋 15,509 ↑1430 57.58 % ↑10.36
Labour Bernard Harkins 7,344 ↓3739 27.27 % ↓9.90
Conservative Jeremy Balfour 3,289 ↑748 12.21 % ↑3.69
Liberal Democrat Jacquie Bell 💸 791 ↓463 2.94 % ↓1.27
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,165 Swing: ↑10.13%