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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

YouGov/Times, 12th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Mid Scotland and Fife region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by YouGov and published in the Times on 12th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑4.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓10.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑4.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓2.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑4.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓0.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓4.43

Our forecast

Mid Scotland and Fife: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 45.36 % 17.76 % 20.20 % 5.53 % 7.60 % 3.55 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9 — — — — — —
Votes 119,287 46,691 53,118 14,530 19,995 9,345 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,929 46,691 53,118 14,530 19,995 9,345 0
2nd divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,929 46,691 26,559 14,530 19,995 9,345 0
3rd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,929 23,346 26,559 14,530 19,995 9,345 0
4th divisor 10 2 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,929 23,346 17,706 14,530 19,995 9,345 0
5th divisor 10 3 3 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 11,929 15,564 17,706 14,530 19,995 9,345 0
6th divisor 10 3 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 11,929 15,564 17,706 14,530 9,998 9,345 0
7th divisor 10 3 4 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 11,929 15,564 13,280 14,530 9,998 9,345 0
8th divisor 10 4 4 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 11,929 11,673 13,280 14,530 9,998 9,345 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Murdo Fraser
2 Labour Alex Rowley
3 Conservative Liz Smith
4 Labour Claire Baker
5 Green Mark Ruskell
6 Conservative Dean Lockhart
7 Labour Thomas Docherty

Constituencies in Mid Scotland and Fife region

Clackmannanshire & Dunblane

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Keith Brown 🛋 14,599 ↑1346 55.80 % ↑7.46
Labour Craig Miller 6,390 ↓3254 24.43 % ↓10.75
Conservative Alexander Stewart 4,531 ↑1030 17.32 % ↑4.55
Liberal Democrat Christopher McKinlay 💸 642 ↓376 2.45 % ↓1.26
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,209 Swing: ↑9.11%

Cowdenbeath

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Annabelle Ewing 📃 11,764 ↑1085 52.02 % ↑10.42
Labour Alex Rowley 🎢 7,902 ↓4024 34.94 % ↓11.52
Conservative Dave Dempsey 2,319 ↑527 10.26 % ↑3.28
Liberal Democrat Bryn Jones 💸 629 ↓368 2.78 % ↓1.10
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,862 Swing: ↑10.97%

Dunfermline

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Shirley-Anne Somerville 12,128 ↑1118 47.78 % ↑10.20
Labour Cara Hilton 6,904 ↓3516 27.20 % ↓8.36
Liberal Democrat James Calder 3,643 ↓2133 14.35 % ↓5.36
Conservative James Reekie 2,709 ↑616 10.67 % ↑3.53
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,224 Swing: ↑9.28%

Kirkcaldy

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP David Torrance 🛋 13,857 ↑1278 55.02 % ↑9.78
Labour Claire Baker 🎢 8,214 ↓4183 32.62 % ↓11.97
Conservative Martin Laidlaw 2,598 ↑591 10.31 % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat Lauren Jones 💸 517 ↓303 2.05 % ↓0.90
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,643 Swing: ↑10.88%

Mid Fife & Glenrothes

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jenny Gilruth 15,159 ↑1398 62.98 % ↑10.68
Labour Kay Morrison 6,343 ↓3230 26.36 % ↓10.02
Conservative Alex Stewart-Clark 2,169 ↑493 9.01 % ↑2.64
Liberal Democrat Jane-Ann Liston 💸 397 ↓233 1.65 % ↓0.74
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,816 Swing: ↑10.35%

North East Fife

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Rod Campbell 12,149 ↑1120 44.77 % ↑7.61
Conservative Huw Bell 7,271 ↑1653 26.80 % ↑7.87
Liberal Democrat Willie Rennie 📃 5,321 ↓3116 19.61 % ↓8.82
Labour Rosalind Garton 2,394 ↓1219 8.82 % ↓3.35
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,878 Swing: ↓0.13%

Perthshire North

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP John Swinney 🛋 20,069 ↑1850 61.23 % ↑0.40
Conservative Murdo Fraser 📃 🎢 10,181 ↑2315 31.06 % ↑4.80
Labour Anna McEwan 1,771 ↓901 5.40 % ↓3.52
Liberal Democrat Peter Barrett 💸 754 ↓442 2.30 % ↓1.69
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,888 Swing: ↓2.20%

Perthshire South & Kinross-shire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Roseanna Cunningham 🛋 17,705 ↑1632 53.18 % ↑1.69
Conservative Liz Smith 🎢 11,528 ↑2621 34.63 % ↑6.10
Labour Scott Nicholson 2,637 ↓1343 7.92 % ↓4.83
Liberal Democrat Willie Robertson 💸 1,423 ↓833 4.27 % ↓2.96
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,177 Swing: ↓2.21%

Stirling

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Bruce Crawford 🛋 16,367 ↑1509 55.98 % ↑7.11
Labour Rebecca Bell 6,088 ↓3100 20.82 % ↓9.40
Conservative Dean Lockhart 🎢 5,967 ↑1357 20.41 % ↑5.25
Liberal Democrat Elisabeth Wilson 💸 817 ↓479 2.80 % ↓1.46
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,279 Swing: ↑8.26%